MLB Pitchers Who Will Break Out in 2013

As pitchers and catchers around Major League Baseball prepare to report for spring training in about a month, a few pitchers are unknowingly preparing for their breakout season in 2013.

While a few of these players have had years of MLB experience, others are only in the infant stages of their careers, causing general managers around the league to salivate over their potential.

The majority of the players on this list have already established that they can be quality starters in the big leagues, but their next step is developing into perennial Cy Young candidates and aces of their respective staffs.

Here are a few pitchers who will look to take that next step in 2013.

Madison Bumgarner

Why are the San Francisco Giants not concerned about Tim Lincecum's 2012 implosion?

Because A) they won the 2012 World Series and B) they have a 23-year-old fireballer waiting to replace him.

Despite struggling for much of the postseason, Bumgarner was able to turn that all around in the World Series, posting seven scoreless innings in Game 2 and showing the baseball world his immense talent.

Vastly underrated and unheralded to many casual baseball fans, Madison Bumgarner complied a 3.37 ERA on top of a career-high 16 wins in 2012. Those numbers, though, do not tell the true story of Bumgarner's abilities.

The southpaw ran into some bad luck with the long ball in 2012. After allowing only 12 home runs in 204.2 innings in 2011, Bumgarner allowed 23 home runs in 208.1 innings this past year. A five percent increase in his HR/FB over that time span was the main cause of this, which in 2012 was also three percentage points higher than his previous career high.

Although Bumgarner pitched to a low BABIP of .276 this past season, it is not uncommon for a hard thrower who strikes out 8.25 batters per nine innings to work with such a low number. While some natural regression will take place in this category, the regression of his home run rate will offset any negative effects a higher BABIP will have on his ERA and win total.

When you factor in what another year of experience will have on a guy who already threw eight scoreless innings in the World Series during his rookie year and who some have touted as a future Hall of Famer, you have a superstar in waiting.

Matt Moore

Trading James Shields to the Royals all but tells you how much Andrew Friedman and the Rays believe in Matt Moore.

With that trade, Matt Moore is not only expected to fill the hole left by Shields, but he is expected to exceed what Shields gave the Rays over the past seven years. Moore has proved in his relatively young career that he has the talent to do just that.

After an up-and-down rookie season in which he flashed his brilliance, Moore ultimately ended 2012 with an 11-11 record and a 3.81 ERA. Based on his peripheral stats, Moore showed us that he is capable of not only sustaining this respectable line, but improving upon it as well.

Striking out 8.88 batters per nine innings in your rookie season is impressive. Walking 4.11 is not. History tells us his command will improve over time and eventually he will learn how to pitch on more than his talent alone.

Despite his wildness, Moore was able to hold opponents to a .293 BABIP, not far off from the league average, and had a 3.93 FIP, not far off from his final ERA—both of which suggest that in 2012, Moore was right where he was expected to be.

It is not easy for a 23-year-old rookie to deal with the enormous expectations Moore had placed on him prior to 2012. He handled those expectations with grace and showed he has the ability to be the cornerstone of the Rays staff for years to come.

Jeff Samardzija

Who says he chose the wrong career path?

While his college quarterback has struggled to get on the field in his disappointing NFL career, the one-time Notre Dame wideout has quietly developed into one of the most underrated pitchers in MLB.

Prior to 2012, Samardzija was mainly used as a relief pitcher, and, for the most part, struggled in that role. But this past year Samardzija finished with a 9-13 record, posted a 3.81 ERA and struck out 180 batters in 174.1 innings in his first full season as a starter for the despondent Chicago Cubs.

Despite his breakout success out of relatively nowhere, 2012 was no an aberration for the former Golden Domer. Samardzija actually had a lower FIP (3.55) than actual ERA, due to a Cubs defense that featured the black holes of Starlin Castro and Alfonso Soriano, and had a modest .296 BABIP. Factor in his surprisingly good control and a 2.89 walks-per-nine average, and Samardzija has the looks of a solid starting pitcher in this league.

The likely Opening Day starter for the Cubs hopes to get some more help in 2013 from his teammates and improve upon his 9-13 record; hey, it's not his fault the Cubs stink.

Rick Porcello

RICK PORCELLO?!?

Yes, this is the same Rick Porcello who posted a 4.59 ERA last year and is in a battle for the fifth spot in the Tigers rotation. The same Rick Porcello who was demoted in 2010 and was relegated to the Tigers bullpen for their 2012 postseason run.

Am I rational when it comes to Rick Porcello? No, not in the slightest, considering he's from Chester, N.J., a short drive from my home town. But in all seriousness, the guy is much better pitcher than he has shown in his short stint in the big leagues.

You would think with a career 4.55 ERA and 1.42 WHIP, Porcello doesn't have the makings of a pitcher on the verge of a breakout. When you look at his advanced stats, though, you are painted a picture of a pitcher who should be better than his ERA and record suggest.

Last season Porcello had the highest BABIP (.344) among qualified starters and had the fourth-worst defense behind him, as per FanGraphs. Luckily, there is a stat (FIP) that can account for the Tigers' abysmal defense and pinpoints Porcello's ERA at a respectable 3.91, 40th best in the league.

Not half bad for a 24-year-old.

The best thing for Porecllo, though, would be a move to another team that would better account for his low strikeout rate (5.46 K/9 in 2012) and his proficiency to find the opposing team's bats.

Convenient for him, his name has been involved in trade rumors all winter long according to Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports.

If one goes through, look out.

Dylan Bundy

Am I buying into the hype? Clearly.

He didn't allow a single run in 30 innings of A-ball, had a 2.84 ERA in High-A, then went to Double-A and pitched to the tune of a 3.24 ERA. All while striking out 119 helpless batters in 103.2 innings.

Did I mention this was all at the age of 19?

It's funny how it's not that impressive because of what Bryce Harper did at 19 and what Mike Trout did at 20; but, let's be honest, those guys aren't human.

It will be interesting, though, to see how Bundy is handled by the Orioles in 2013. Rumor has it that he is destined for the minors, according to Dan Connolly of The Baltimore Sun, but with all that talent you'd think we'd see him in the majors at some point this season.

Even if he bounces around, I would expect the Stephen Strasburg treatment, as most teams these days worry their prized prospects will pull a Mark Prior and end up on the scrap heap if they're overworked.

Either way, one of his defining characteristics is his highly publicized workout routine which has some people worried about his arm. Those same people will be even more worried if he cannot adjust like his workout clone, Trevor Bauer, was unable to once he reached the big leagues.

Despite the questions over the 20-year-old phenom, Dylan Bundy possesses the tools of a future ace in the majors. Whether that is this year is in doubt. I expect him to make some noise in the majors this year, and when he does get the call-up, he'll take the league by storm.