NFL Draft: Do QBs Rate the Top Pick?

As we have all heard and read, the Detroit Lions control the first-overall selection in this year’s draft. This fact sent PossessionPoints.com pondering about the wisdom of the Lions taking a shot at potential “franchise” QB Matt Stafford from the University of Georgia.

Most sports pundits have said this is the obvious choice for the beleaguered Lions. 

Since we are working on our mock draft this month as well, we would like to take an analytical look and ask two radical questions: Should the Lions bypass Stafford in favor of a player who could bolster their defense or offensive line, and is it worth taking a quarterback with the first-overall selection of the draft?

In our analysis, we looked at snapshots in time and selected two seasons of quarterbacks, five years apart, to determine whether success equates to a high draft selection. We viewed the top 30 QBs by passing yards from both 2008 and 2003.

In both years, the results were remarkably similar. Both seasons had just three QBs who were chosen with the first overall pick in their draft class. In 2008, these quarterbacks were Peyton Manning, Eli Manning and JaMarcus Russell. Five years earlier in 2003, the three quarterbacks who met this criteria were Peyton Manning, Drew Bledsoeand David Carr.

However, at the other end of the spectrum were the lesser known and undrafted quarterbacks. Five of these QBs were in the top 30 in 2008, six were in the top 30 in 2003, and all were passed over completely in the draft.  

The top quarterbacks in 2008 who slipped through the sharp-eyed scouts in their draft years were Kurt Warner, Tony Romo, Jake Delhomme, Jeff Garcia, and Shaun Hill. The 2003 list included Jon Kitna, Jake Delhomme, Jeff Garcia, Jay Fiedler, Kelly Holcomb, and Doug Johnson.

So, we wonder: How much of a sure thing is the first QB taken in the draft? Well, in each of our snapshot years five quarterbacks in the top 30 were among the first QBs taken in their draft class. This is just about the same number as those who were undrafted.

In many drafts, there are three, four, or even five QBs taken in the first round. How many of the top 30 were first-round selections? In 2008, 14 were first-round selections which equates to 47 percent. In 2003, the count was 13 or 43 percent.

We’ve included a chart on the 2008 Quarterbacks, and it is interesting to note that seven of the top 10 were drafted in the top 25 of their class. The 2003 chart is just the opposite as seven of the top 10 were not even in the top 100 of their draft class.

This is just a portion of the analysis we did in trying to decide whether or not the Lions should select Matt Stafford with the very first pick this year.

Our conclusion is that they should not. (Sorry, Detroit fans.) The Lions have many needs, and although they have nine picks overall and five in the top 100, we are not convinced that they should select a quarterback with their first pick.

We might suggest they go one step further and try to trade down to acquire even more selections.

We do not think that Stafford can be classified as a “sure thing” franchise QB at this time. Perhaps he will be in the future, but who knows how he will develop.

If the Lions keep their first pick but pass on Stafford or another quarterback, how will they address their quarterback need? 

Detroit not only has a No. 1 overall pick, but they also have the No. 20 pick in the first round. Passing on Stafford might increase the chance that Josh Freeman from Kansas State will still be available at the No. 20 slot. Many scouts view Freeman as the third quarterback in the draft behind Stafford and Mark Sanchez from USC.

Hoping that Freeman will drop to 20 is a risk for the Lions, and they may want to find a way to get ahead of the Bucs who draft at 19. The Bucs’ new head coach, Raheem Morris, was a Kansas State Coach who has seen Freeman first hand and may want him for Tampa Bay. 

Freeman is 6’6” and 248 pounds, which makes him the biggest of the quarterbacks that are likely to be drafted in the first round this year. This size might help him behind the Lions line.

If the Lions pass on Stafford with the No. 1 pick, and they do not trade down, how should they use this pick? We say they should go with Offensive Tackle Jason Smith from Baylor or Linebacker Aaron Curry from Wake Forest. Both of these players could be immediate positives and, as we said, the Lions need help on both sides of the ball.

The gist of this analytical tale is this: We acknowledge that the Lions have a quarterback need which has to be addressed somewhere in the draft.

However, we do not necessarily think it is imperative that Detroit use the No. 1 selection for that purpose.