Fantasy Baseball Sleepers, Busts, and Prospects: Third Base

Sleepers

Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals

Zimmerman had a torn labrum in his shoulder last season and it cost him more than 50 games. 

It also cost him some of his power, as he managed 10 fewer homers and 40 fewer RBI from the previous year. 

However, he hit five home runs in September, giving fantasy players hope for 2009. 

It seems that most people have lost faith in Zimmerman and he is being selected outside of the top 10 at his position.  Zimmerman had 44 jacks and more than 200 RBI in his first two years, and I think he can get back to the 20 to 25 home run plateau. 

With the addition of Adam Dunn, Zimmerman finally has someone else in the lineup that can offer him some sort of protection.

Mark Reynolds, Diamondbacks

You can view him as a “poor man’s Adam Dunn.”  In his second season, Reynolds hit 28 homers and drove in nearly 100 runs.  Unfortunately, he also set a new single season strikeout record with 204, and his average fell 40 points to .239. 

Reynolds hit for a much higher average in the minor leagues, and he has 30 to 40 home run potential.  According to Mock Draft Central, Reynolds is being selected in the 22nd round, about the same time as Dioner Navarro, Coco Crisp, and Juan Pierre.  None of those guys are even fantasy relevant, while Reynolds has the potential to produce a 30-homer season.

Kevin Kouzmanoff, Padres

A former top prospect of the Cleveland Indians, the Padres and I have been waiting for Kouzmanoff to break out for a couple years.  In 2006, between AA, AAA, and the majors, Kouzmanoff hit 25 homers and drove in 86 runs. 

Since coming to the majors, he has been less successful.  He did hit 23 homers last year, but his batting average, on base percentage, and strikeout rate have been suffering.  He plays in a big ballpark with a horrible lineup, so there are some things working against him, but he still has a ton of potential and could break out at any time. 

He is currently being drafted in the 26th round, and a guy with the capabilities to hit 25 home runs that late in the draft is worth a shot.

Busts

Chipper Jones, Braves

There is no doubting the talent of Chipper Jones.  However, he’s got a couple of things going against him. 

First, he is going to be 37 years old at the end of April, and most players not named Barry or Roger see their skills diminish as they reach this age. 

Second is his history of injuries.  Chipper hasn’t played 140 games in any of the last four seasons, and he really screwed his owners last season when he was unable to do anything but pinch hit for the last two weeks of the season. 

At his age and with that injury history he shouldn’t be going as high as he does.  He did win the NL batting title last year, so he still does offer you production when he can play, but if you draft Jones please be sure you get another viable third baseman as a backup.  Chances are you are going to need him for at least a couple of months.

Garrett Atkins, Rockies

Since he hit .329/29/120 in 2006, Atkins has watched his statistics deteriorate every year, and he bottomed out last season at .286/21/99.  Now, those aren’t horrible statistics and he’s only 29 years old, but I don’t like the trend that he is following. 

Atkins’ strikeouts have increased in each year, his steals are down to just about nothing, and the only good thing that you can say about him is that he has been durable. 

Atkins has played in at least 155 games in each of the last three seasons.  He is being drafted at the end of the sixth round, which seems to be too high for a guy whose stats have been headed in the wrong direction.

Edwin Encarnacion, Reds

Sure, it looks good that Encarnacion’s home runs went up by 10 last year to 26, however, take a look at the whole picture.

His average dropped 38 points from .289 all the way down to .251.  His RBI somehow went down by eight despite the increase in home runs, his hits and on base percentage went down, while his strikeouts went up. 

Encarnacion had some good minor league numbers, but so far has had trouble being consistent in the majors.  He is being drafted in the ninth round, and I just think that is too high for a guy who I expect to take a decent step back in 2009.

Prospects

Brett Wallace, Cardinals

Wallace will be the Cardinals starting third baseman as soon as Troy Glaus’ contract is over, so you likely won’t see him in the majors this season.  His last year at Arizona State, he hit a ridiculous .410, with 22 homers, 83 RBI, and 16 stolen bases.  He then spent some time in the minors, and in 54 games he hit .337 with eight homers and 36 RBI. 

Wallace has future star written all over him and was ranked as the Cardinals' second best prospect according to Baseball America.  If he gets the call to the majors at any point this season, jump on him right away.

Dayan Viciedo, White Sox

The 19-year-old Cuban hit .337 as a 16-year-old, and is projected as a 35- to 40-homer guy. 

It was thought that Viciedo had no chance of making the team out of spring, but he played so well that he hung around camp much longer than was expected.  The Sox gave this guy a $10 million contract, so they obviously think he can play. 

Viciedo will be up in the majors the second that Josh Fields begins to struggle for any length of time.  In leagues where you have large benches, he may be worth stashing until he comes to the majors.   Look how well Alexei Ramirez did when he came to the majors.

Pedro Alvarez, Pirates

Alvarez was the second-overall pick in last year’s draft, and projects to be in the majors before too long.  Alvarez had a great career at Vanderbilt, where he hit 49 home runs and drove in 162 RBI in three seasons. He hit at least .317 in each of his three collegiate seasons.  

If it weren't for the fact that he signed a contract at the very last second, he probably would have gotten through a couple of minor-league levels already, but in 14 games this spring, Alvarez is hitting .444 with five RBI.  He might get a chance this year, and he is definitely a guy you want on your roster if he does come up.

Mat Gamel, Brewers

Gamel had a chance to take the starting third base job for the Brewers to start the season, but between his struggles at the plate and Bill Hall returning from injury sooner than expected, Gamel may have to wait.  In 16 games this preseason, he hit just .240 with only one homer and four RBI. 

Gamel had a pretty solid season at AA last year when he hit .329 with 19 homers and 96 RBI in 127 games.  He strikes out more than you would like, and offers very little speed, but Gamel should be manning the hot corner in Milwaukee as soon as they figure out that Hall really isn’t that good.

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