Panthers vs. Chargers: Spread Info, Line and Predictions

The San Diego Chargers will host the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, in a clash of underachieving teams coming off overachieving weeks.

A popular choice to contend before the season started, Carolina (4-9) has disappointed during Cam Newton's sophomore season. The Panthers haven't played nearly as bad as the record suggests, but repeated fits of poor late-game execution have unraveled them in close games.

As disenchanting as the Panthers' season has been, however, it pales in comparison to the mess in San Diego. The Chargers (5-8) entered the year as favorites to win the AFC West. But a 1-7 stretch in the season's second act, along with the re-emergence of Peyton Manning, has made that look like an obvious pipe dream.

Despite their inauspicious seasons, both teams beat playoff contenders in Week 14. Carolina avenged an early-season loss to Atlanta, dominating its division rival from start to finish. In Pittsburgh, the Chargers took it to the 7-5 Steelers, and won their first game in over a month.

For Norv Turner, that win was too little, too late—he'll be removed from his post when the season concludes. Ron Rivera still has a pulse, but if the Panthers don't show promise down the stretch, he could easily meet the same fate.

Let's take a closer look at what to expect.

When: Sunday, Dec. 16th, 4:05 p.m. ET

Where: Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego, Calif.

Watch: Fox (Check local listings)

Live Stream: NFL Sunday Ticket

Spread: San Diego -3 (via VegasInsider.com, LVH)

Vegas rates the Panthers and Chargers equally (as indicated by the three-point home favorite), but the pervasive thought among bettors favors Carolina.

Per VegasInsider, 64 percent of the money is currently on the Panthers getting three. That makes sense, in one respect, since they just upset an 11-1 opponent. But this also raises eyebrows since they're just 12 days removed from losing to the lowly Chiefs.

Football Outsiders is a big fan of Carolina, too: Despite the 4-9 record, their weighted DVOA ranks in the top half of the league. That's a far cry from the 25th spot, where San Diego is currently rated.

In their last five road games, Carolina has gone 4-1 against the spread—wining four straight prior to the aforementioned loss at Kansas City. Conversely—to a neat, symmetrical degree—the Bolts have gone 1-4 against the spread in their last four games at home.

Take the points.

Over/Under: 45.0 (via VegasInsider.com, LVH)

Forty-five is a pretty big number, but one that both teams have proven capable of covering.

The Panthers' last five games have all hit the over. Three of those games had lines over 45, and the two that didn't (at Philly and at Kansas City) finished with a total over 45 anyway.

But this wager isn't quite so cut-and-dry. The Chargers and Panthers rank 14th and 17th, respectively, in defensive efficiency—numbers that measure evenly with their offensive rankings (22nd and 11th, respectively).

San Diego has hit a decisive under in its last two home games, totaling 29 against the Ravens and 33 against the Bengals. Carolina's offense is firing on all cylinders, but it's hard to ignore the low-scoring games Qualcomm has hosted the past few weeks.

I'd advise you not to play this line at all. But if for some reason you have to, take the under.

Carolina Panthers Injury Report (via USA Today as of 12/13/12)

Player	Status	Injury
WR Louis Murphy	Hamstring	Questionable
LB Thomas Davis	Knee	Questionable
C Geoff Hangartner	Foot	Questionable
C Jeff Byers	Back	Questionable
LB James Anderson	Back	Questionable
DT Dwan Edwards	Wrist	Questionable
S Charles Godfrey	Back	Questionable
WR Brandon LaFell	Foot	Questionable
RB Jonathan Stewart	Ankle	Questionable

San Diego Chargers Injury Report (via USA Today as of 12/13/12)

Player	Status	Injury
RB Ronnie Brown	Hamstring	Questionable
OT Jeromey Clary	Knee	Questionable
G Tyronne Green	Hamstring	Questionable
OT Mike Harris	Ankle	Questionable
LB Donald Butler	Groin	Questionable
TE Dante Rosario	Hamstring	Questionable
WR Eddie Royal	Hamstring	Doubtful
DB Darrell Stuckey	Hamstring	Injured Reserve
DE Vaughn Martin	Groin	Injured Reserve

Fantasy Big Plays

Carolina Panthers: WR Steve Smith

The only two pass-catchers worth starting (or owning) on Carolina are Greg Olsen and Steve Smith. This week they face a Chargers defense that ranks fifth against opposing tight ends, but 25th against opposing No. 1 receivers (h/t Football Outsiders).

Just last weekend, San Diego surrendered seven catches, 112 yards and two touchdowns to Pittsburgh's Mike Wallace—a player whose game bears remarkable resemblance to Smith's. The second TD came in garbage time and was, admittedly, a little fluky. But even so, Wallace ran free in the Bolts secondary all game long.

Coming off back-to-back 100-yard games for the first time since Weeks 1 and 2, Smith could post similar totals this weekend.

San Diego Chargers: WR Danario Alexander

Over the past five weeks, Alexander has emerged as one of the most dangerous, explosive and—shockingly—consistent commodities in fantasy football.

He's tallied either 100 yards or a touchdown in four of his last five games, and twice during that stretch, he's found the end zone on multiple occasions.

Just seven games into his San Diego tenure, Alexander and Rivers have developed the kind of rapport that usually takes years to build. And now they get to face a Carolina defense that allowed Brady Quinn to rack up 200 yards and two scores.

Realistically, it can't go on like this forever; someone's going to have to slow Alexander down eventually. It's just hard to imagine that the Panthers are that someone.

Key to Victory: Can the Chargers Protect Phillip Rivers?

Carolina's defense doesn't get a shred of the respect they deserve. Especially the defensive line—a unit that, according to Football Outsiders, ranks fifth in the league rushing the passer.

They'll provide a stiff test for the Chargers offensive line, who, despite struggling at times this season, has played admirably in recent weeks. It surrendered only two sacks against Pittsburgh last week, and only one to the Bengals—who lead the league in that category—the week prior.

Carolina's secondary is underrated, but not particularly great. They subsist because opposing quarterbacks are typically given so little time to throw.

If Rivers finds a comfort zone in the pocket, San Diego could find itself moving the ball with ease.

Prediction

This is a tough one to predict. Both teams have shown flashes of competence, but neither has shown the ability to sustain that competence from week to week.

Ultimately, I'm swayed by the letdown potential in San Diego. Much like the Eagles last night, the Chargers are coming off a much-needed, long-anticipated victory. After such a triumph, how, exactly, do you maintain that sense of motivation? Philadelphia certainly doesn't have the answer.

The Panthers had the same kind of letdown versus Kansas City. But after beating Atlanta last week, they appear to be over it.

Predicted Score: Carolina 27, San Diego 17