Mike Conley: A Closer Look

With so much uproar over my declaration that Mike Conley was heading down bust lane, I felt that it was only fair for to give the youngster a second look. Does the youngster have talent? Can he be a top flight point guard in the league?

Perhaps.

Using Friday night’s 120-106 Grizzlies victory over the Knicks as a barometer, let’s take a close look at whether or not Conley is worth the number four pick in the draft.

Mike Conley: (5-8 FG, 1-1 3FG, 3 REB, 6 AST, 1 STL, 3 TO, 11 PTS)

Transition Offense:

Against the Knicks, Conley displayed a keen understanding of how to initiate a trigger offense. In fact, it’s probably what he does best.

On three fast break opportunities, Conley was able to put pressure on the Knick guards with his speed. As a result Conley was able to finish an easy layup, knock down an elbow jumper, and make an impressive no look pass to Mike Miller leading to a foul (Miller hit both free throws).

Conley’s layup, his assist, and his pass leading to two made free throws tally up to six points on three possessions, an outstanding ratio. Plus, Conley looked to push the ball whenever the court was unbalanced in an attempt to create tempo. Early in his career, Conley has an understanding of how to generate points when the defense is on its heels and he has more of his guys in the attack zone than the defense does.

Halfcourt scoring:

Conley’s point-making abilities in the halfcourt aren’t as refined as his open floor skills. For the game, Conley was 3-6 against the Knicks when in a halfcourt situation. One of his makes was a late jumper when the game was all but decided. Conley’s 2-5 was revealing of where his offense is right now.

• On a drive to the hoop, a slight bump by Renaldo Balkman threw Conley off course, resulting in an uncomplicated missed layup. This proves that Conley still needs to get a lot stronger (or more creative) to be an effective finisher at the basket.
• A wide open three-pointer ended with a swish. This proves that Conley has three-point range but only against defenses that wont pressure his shots, and only in offenses that will generate wide open opportunities for him.
• After a screen/roll penetration was cut off by Nate Robinson going under the screen, Conley pivoted and missed a forced fallaway jumper. This, along with the fact that the Knicks went under every screen involving Conley, proves that Conley’s jumper doesn’t scare anybody, and he isn’t quick enough to blow by defenders who are sagging off of him.
• A nifty left-to-right crossover gave Conley an open look, but he missed a floating runner. This proves that Conley has good handles, which he can rely on to generate open looks. More toughness should lead to more confidence near the hoop, which in turn will lead to Conley making a higher percentage of his floaters.
• Conley drove across the lane and faked pulling the ball back out, before using a hesitation dribble to separate from Mardy Collins for a layup. This proves that Conley has too much shake-and-bake for the lead-footed Mardy Collins and the Knicks absent rotations to handle. Alert defenses won't fall for such a trick if Conley pulls it out.

Point Guard Skills:

Conley’s assist and turnover numbers do a poor job of indicating his bizarre passing day.

Three times, Conley found wide open teammates who missed uncontested looks. Two other times, Conley’s passes or dribbles were knocked away by the Knicks, only to be picked up by Conley and shuffled to an open shooter for an assist.

In all Conley made four bad passes, including a lob pass to Darko Milicic between three defenders where Milicic didn’t even jump to track it down, an over penetration along the baseline where Conley’s forced out pass hit the bottom of the backboard, and an entry pass which was too high and too hot for Milicic to handle.

Conley also over penetrated another time and fumbled the ball out of bounds.

On the positive side of the ledger, Conley showed nice court vision to complete a number of tricky plays. He drove the baseline and saw Juan Carlos Navarro at the top of the key for a made three-pointer; from the right elbow he spotted Mike Miller at the top of the key for a three which spun out; and in early offense he fired a bullet pass from well outside the three-point line to Hakim Warrick whose dunk attempt was blocked.

Conley’s other three assists came on a drive and drop-off to Milicic for a layup, a simple pass along the perimeter where Miller launched and made a three-pointer, and a nice pass to the right wing while moving left culminating in a another three for Miller.

Conley was rarely asked to initiate any kind of offensive set, instead dribbling the ball across the timeline, passing to a teammate, and standing around on the weak side.

The Knicks rarely sagged into the lane to defend Conley’s penetrations, rendering them, for the most part, ineffective.

Still, Conley only forced one shot, and his patience in not forcing the offense was commendable. He’ll have time to learn not to overpenetrate along the baseline and not to make careless passes.

Defense:

Conley’s defense is easily the worst part of his game.

Conley failed to pressure Nate Robinson when Nate brought the ball up, and Conley was left spinning like a top whenever Nate attacked him off the dribble.

When switched onto Wilson Chandler, Conley wasn’t big enough to provide any resistance while Chandler spun past him in the lane.

Conley overreacted to Knicks ball-penetration and wound up in no man’s land, neither close enough to the penetration to provide help defense, nor close enough to his man to close out and challenge his shots.

In fact, while Conley himself provided 11 points of his own, plus his four genuine assists leading to 11 more points, he gave up 18 points in individual matchups versus Robinson, Chandler, and Mardy Collins, plus numerous open three-point looks which spun out.

Conley did make one positive play on defense, sagging off and stealing a Robinson entry pass. Aside from that, Conley was a defensive liability.

So then, is Conley a bust?

No, that term is too strong. Conley does have enough potential to be a factor down the road, and he’s already an effective player in an open court offense.

For Conley to get the most out of talents though, he’ll need to work on a pull-up jumper to punish defenses who go under his screens. Conley also needs to get a lot stronger so he can finish when he gets to the paint. Conley’s passing is mediocre right now, and he tends to get frustrated when things aren’t going his way.

Conley needs to spend lots of time on defensive drills to quicken his defensive first step. An understanding of where he should be in help defense situations is also required for Conley to get the most out of his potential.

It would help if the Grizzlies had the players to run offensive sets more evolved than isolations and screen/rolls. Without an advanced playbook, Conley’s ability to run a halfcourt offense will be limited.

Still, Conley is incredibly young and the Grizzlies are going nowhere. Give the kid two more years to find out if he’s got simply potential or actual game.