Predicting the Biggest Upset in College Football Week 13

Expect complete bedlam on Saturday when Oklahoma State roars into Norman to face in-state rival Oklahoma.

That's because the No. 13 Sooners will fall to the No. 21 Cowboys.

Looking at the amount of points Oklahoma State has allowed per game this season (26.1, 57th in the FBS), this may seem like an easy call. Given Oklahoma's explosive offense, how can the Cowboys win if they can't stop the Sooners?

But the difference is that Oklahoma State has played much better in the second half of the season, while Oklahoma has played worse—and that includes on defense.

In the last four weeks, Oklahoma has allowed 30 points to Notre Dame, 34 points to Baylor and 49 points to West Virginia.

Meanwhile, since the 41-36 loss Texas on Sept. 29, Oklahoma State hasn't allowed more than 34 points to any opponent except for then-No. 2 Kansas on Nov. 3. And the Cowboys have gone 5-1 since that loss to the Longhorns. That includes ceding 34 points to West Virginia and 21 points to Texas Tech in the past two weeks—an accomplishment given the explosive offenses of the Mountaineers and the Red Raiders.

You also have to look at the job junior quarterback Clint Chelf has done since the first start of his career two weeks ago against West Virginia. He led the Cowboys to 55 points against the Mountaineers and 59 points against Texas Tech last week.

Chelf averaged 9.4 yards per pass attempt with four touchdowns (one interception) against West Virginia and 10.9 yards per attempt with three touchdowns against Texas Tech.

On top of that, the Oklahoma run defense in particular has been forgiving lately. The Sooners gave up 458 rushing yards against West Virginia, 252 rushing yards against Baylor and 215 rushing yards to Notre Dame.

That's not good news for Oklahoma going up against junior running back Joseph Randle and the Cowboys on Saturday. Not only has Randle rushed for over 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns this season, but Jeremy Smith and Desmond Roland are both threats—as they showed against Texas Tech last week.

Heading into Saturday's Big 12 clash in Norman, Oklahoma is in position to possibly make the Sugar Bowl this season.

Oklahoma State will make sure that doesn't happen.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 45, Oklahoma 37