Draft Preparation: Starting Pitching (Rounds 11-20)

Round 11

What in the world happened to Justin Verlander? After winning 35 games in his first two full seasons, Verlander went 11-17 last year with a near 5.00 ERA. His walks went up by 20, his strikeouts down by 20.

Was it just a horrible year for the entire Tigers’ franchise, or is there cause for concern? I’m still buying Verlander, but I can’t say that with 100 percent confidence anymore.

Ricky Nolasco had been around for a little while, even though he was far from widely known.  His 15-8 season was a great surprise to many fantasy owners, and picking him up on the wire likely saved many seasons.

Many people will consider it a fluke, but if you check out his minor league numbers, Nolasco could be a great pitcher again in 2009. If he repeats last year, he is a great choice here.

Matt Cain has been teasing us with his fantastic stuff for years. He has the pitches to be a fantasy ace, but he’s never been able to stay consistent. Cain can shut a team out for four innings, and then give up six runs in the fifth. 

He will continue to be selected here because of his ability, but chances are his results won’t be worth a choice in the 11th round.

Adam Wainwright has great ability and could be an ace this year. He missed over two months with a finger injury, but when he was pitching, he was fantastic. Wainwright was 11-3 with a 3.20 ERA and 91 Ks in 132 innings. If he could get his strikeouts up more, Wainwright could be a top 15-20 starter in 2009.

Round 12

David Price is the pitching phenom of this season.  Price looks like he will start the year in the minors, but it shouldn’t last long.  Price had quite the season in 2008, reaching all levels of the minors and finishing it up by pitching in the World Series.

The kid has the most electric arm perhaps in all of baseball.  He should have an immediate fantasy impact upon arriving in the majors, and is a decent value in round 12.

Brett Myers is the ultimate fantasy Jeykll and Hyde. His entire career can be thought of just like his 2008 stats. Before the All-Star Break, Myers was 3-9 with a 5.84 ERA. After the break he was 7-4 with a 3.06 ERA.

How are you supposed to figure this guy out? You aren’t. If you draft him, just expect that he will drive you to drink as many times in celebration as he will for regurgitation. He will always get you strikeouts though, and that is why he is selected in this portion of the draft.

Javier Vasquez will guarantee you strikeouts, the rest is a crap shoot.  In the last three years, his ERA has bounced from nearly 5.00, down to 3.74 and then back to 4.67 again.  In two of the last three years he has also had a losing win-loss record. 

He should be aided by the move back to the National League, and he could get back to a 16 win season.

Chris Young has not only had trouble staying on the mound, but he has seen his win total erode three straight years. He gets a pass for last year because he had the scariest moment of the year when he took a Pujols liner off the face. 

He is a decent strikeout pitcher, but doesn’t go deep into games.

Zach Greinke looks like he will be the steal of the draft in his position.  Out of baseball just a few years ago, Greinke has started to show the signs of the talent which made scouts call him an ace in waiting. 

His ERA has been dropping, his strikeout rate has been increasing, and the Royals have been improving enough that you can count on Greinke to be a reliable starter who could give you ace stats by the end of 2009.

Randy Johnson in the 12th round is far too soon for me. I think he could have a great season in the National League pitching in an offensively starved NL West.  But the guy is over 40 and has a long history of back trouble. 

If you could guarantee me he will make 30 starts, I would consider him here, but that is FAR from a sure thing.

Round 13

Josh Johnson returned from Tommy John Surgery in 2008 less than a year after the procedure and pitched beautifully. Johnson was 7-1 with a 3.61 ERA and nearly a strikeout an inning. Johnson is an intimidating force on the mound with his 6'7″frame, and has been impressive in his short time in the majors. 

At just 25 years old, there is still room for improvement.

John Danks was always supposed to be an ace, and he took the first step towards being there in 2008.  Danks deserved better than his 12-9 record, as he pitched to a 3.32 ERA and 159 strikeouts. 

You would like to see that strikeout rate improve if he were to pitch above his draft position, but he is also good at avoiding the free pass. Danks walked just 57 guys in nearly 200 innings, and he should be able to match his numbers of last season in 2009.

A lot of experts are calling Gavin Floyd’s 2008 season luck. But you can’t argue with a guy who won 17 games with an ERA under 4.00. He does walk a few more than you would like, and strikeout less than you would like.

Floyd was always a big time prospect for the Phillies, so he could be just realizing his potential.  But I am expecting a small step back in 2009.

Aaron Harang went from the penthouse in 2007 to the outhouse in 2008. After winning 16 games thre previous two seasons, he went 6-17 with a near 5.00 ERA. His strikeout ratio also went in the toilet, and he crushed many people’s fantasy seasons.

He is too good to be that bad, and should have a bounce back season in 2009.  He has gotten off to a great start this spring in his “return” to respectability.

Derek Lowe is another guy who should benefit from his move to the National League.  He has been one of the more consistent starters in the majors over the past four seasons.

He has won 12-16 games and his ERA has never been over 4.00 during that stretch. He is seriously lacking in the strikeout department, but he helps you out in the rest of the categories.  He is getting older but still should be a consistent starter.

Round 14

Ryan Dempster was a constant roller coaster ride as a closer, so why should be have thought he would have been a great starter?  But he was, he won 17 games, had a sub-3.00 ERA and struck out 187 guys.

His ERA was nearly two runs lower as a starter than it was as a closer. Not sure he will be as good in 2009, but should be worthy of a 14th round pick.

Aaron Cook is a decent pitcher, but between his ERA and his lack of strikeouts there are better options than him available here. He had never won more than nine games before he broke out with 16 wins in 2008, and most guys don’t break out at age 30.  He had just 96 strikeouts in 211 innings, you can find something better.

Matt Garza was traded to the Rays for Delmon Young and became an important part of the rotation. He won 11 games, had a 3.70 ERA and was the ALCS MVP.  Some will be skeptical of him after he struck out just 128 in 184 innings, but his entire minor and major league career he has been close to a strike out an inning. Those numbers should improve.

Round 15

Joe Saunders had a huge breakout season with 17 wins and a 3.41 ERA. Although he had a solid minor league career, nothing pointed to that kind of season. He also doesn’t get many strikeouts.  If he is your fourth or fifth starter, that is ok. However, I wouldn’t want to go into the season with him any higher on my roster than that.

If Erik Bedard could ever stay healthy he would be drafted ten rounds earlier.  However, the last two seasons haven’t been kind to Bedard and now he is already having some injury concerns this spring. 

I wouldn’t draft Bedard with any dreams of him pitching a full season, but if he is your fifth or a bench starter, he is a great chance to take.

Max Scherzer is one of the bright young stars in the majors. Unfortunately, right now he is off to a slow start this spring due to shoulder inflammation. He is a strikeout artist though, and should have a tremendous future.

In a single season league I might wait a few more rounds on him.  Keeper league players, don’t let this bump in the road get in the way of drafting him.

Jair Jurrjens is the latest in a line of good Braves pitchers. You would like to see more strikeouts, you would like to see less walks, but it is the 15th round, Johan Santana was gone long ago. Jurrjens is a great option to fill out your pitching staff. He should win 13-15 games, get 150 strikeouts, and have an ERA around 3.50-3.75.

Round 16

Ted Lilly will give you a good number of wins being on the Cubs, but his ERA has been over 4.00 in five of the last six seasons. He doesn’t quite get a strikeout an inning, but he is close. Lilly is a good option to fill out your rotation, just don’t expect ace stuff from him.

At times Johnny Cueto looked like a future ace, at other times he looked like he didn’t belong in the majors. However, he’s just 23, and there is plenty of room for improvement.

Fantasy players like young pitchers who get good strikeout numbers so he will be drafted even though he only won nine games and had an ERA approaching 5.00.

Justin Duchscherer is already dealing with an elbow injury this season, which further complicates the fact that there were plenty of questions surrounding his ability to repeat his 2008 performance.

Duchscherer far exceeded his career high in innings pitched and struggled badly down the stretch.  I already didn’t like him coming into 2009, this makes him nearly undraftable.

Round 17

Clayton Kershaw is one of the more exciting young arms in all of the major leagues.  He is a strikeout machine, and even had a good ratio in his limited time in the majors.  Kershaw is about to turn 21 and has the world in the palm of his hands.

History shows that young pitchers struggle and walk too many batters. Kershaw is going to be a mega star one of these years. If it is going to be 2009, you want to be sure he is on your rosters.

Brandon Morrow made the transition from reliever to starter last year, and looks to be a part of the Mariners rotation in 2009. He is dealing with stiffness in his forearm, and he may not be ready for the beginning of the season. 

He has good strikeout potential, but it is hard to say what to expect from Morrow as a starter.  He has good stuff, and will get you a good number of strikeouts. Sometimes that is all fantasy players need to know.

Scott Olsen had been touted as one of the up and coming young pitchers in the minors a few years ago. Well, so far he has failed to live up to those expectations. His record hasn’t approached .500, his ERA has been well over 4.00 the past two seasons, he doesn’t go deep into games, and his strikeouts keep going down. 

He was traded from Florida to Washington in the offseason, so now his team is worse than before.  I would recommend going in another direction.

Andy Pettitte isn’t what he once was, but he still could be worth a roster spot. Here is basically in a nutshell what you can expect from Pettitte. He won’t excel in any category, but if he can stay healthy he should win 13 games, have an ERA of 4.30, and strikeout between 140-150 hitters.

He has been durable though, making at least 33 starts in four straight seasons.

Chien-Ming Wang had won 19 games in two straight seasons before injuring himself running the bases last year in Houston. I know he gets very few strikeouts, but I’m not sure why Wang falls this far in drafts. He is likely to win 15-18 games, have an ERA around 3.50, and he has good control and helps your WHIP. A great option in round 17.

Round 18

Scott Baker isn’t young, but he’s just starting to come into his own. He appears that he will be a consistent option you can count on. Quietly in 2008, Baker was 11-4 with a 3.45 ERA and 141 Ks in 175 innings. He won’t be the reason you win or lose a league obviously, but as a fourth or fifth starter for your staff, he is a pretty low risk option.

Jonathan Sanchez was very popular last year because of his ability to strike guys out. Well, he struggled in the second half of the year and ended up with an ERA over 5.00 and a record that was below .500.

He needs to improve on his control, as he walked 75 batters in just over 150 innings.

The Giants should be much improved, and perhaps with a full season under his belt, so will Sanchez.  Even if he doesn’t he is good for the Ks, as he will get you nearly one an inning.

Mike Pelfrey is not a high strikeout kind of pitcher, but he should be better than his 110 in 200 innings pitched last year. However, there is one concern floating around with Pelfrey. His 200 innings were not only his career high, but it was 50 more innings than he pitched before in his career. 

Sometimes in those cases the next season the pitcher struggles. But Pelfrey has the stuff to win 15 games and look for him to strikeout around 150 hitters.

Round 19

Since his rookie season when he was 11-2, Jered Weaver has failed to repeat that performance.  Weaver won just 11 games in a full season in 2008, and his ERA has jumped almost two full runs since 2006. 

He still gets a decent number of strikeouts and is on a team that is sure to score runs, so Weaver is still a good value this late in the draft. Just don’t expect him to revert to his first season’s dominance.

Gil Meche is far from the most exciting pick in the world, but here’s what you can expect if you draft him. He will give you innings. Meche has been durable, as he has had 32+ starts in each of the last three years. 

He will give you some wins, but his record will hover around .500. Meche was 23-24 since joining the Royals. But KC has improved, maybe he can win more. He will strikeout a decent number of hitters. Meche whiffed 183 in 210 innings in 2008.

Round 20

Wandy Rodriguez has only had one season where he made 30 starts, but for some reason he is highly considered among fantasy players. He does get a good number of strikeouts, which I suppose is the reason he still gets drafted, but his injury history is a mile long.

He is 30 years old and his ERA has been over 4.50 in three of the last four years. Unless you are taking him very late, you probably can find a better option

Chris Volstad is one of the better young pitchers for the Florida Marlins, and given their staff, that is saying something. He is still very young, as he won’t turn 23 until the season is just about over, so he still has room to get better.

You would like to see his strikeout numbers improve, but looking at his minor league numbers you wouldn’t expect that. There will obviously be some bumps, but Volstad projects to be a star sometime in the not so distant future.

John Maine had shoulder surgery in the offseason, but it appears that he should be OK to start the season. He has been hit hard this spring so far, but he is just working his way back. It isn’t something that I would put too much stock in. 

As long as he is healthy when camp breaks, he should be a reliable starter for you in the upcoming season. He has the capabilities of winning 15 games and striking out 180.

Later Rounds or Undrafted

Hideki Kuroda (LAD); Armando Gallarraga (DET); Jeremy Guthrie (BAL); Ubaldo Jiminez (COL); John Smoltz (BOS); Chris Carpenter (STL); Oliver Perez (NYM); Phillip Hughes (NYY); Paul Maholm (PIT); Kelvim Escobar (LAA); Manny Parra (MIL); Mark Buehrle (CWS); Fausto Carmona (CLE); Kyle Lohse (STL); Todd Wellemeyer (STL); Andy Sonnanstine (TB); Clay Buchholz (BOS); Joe Blanton (PHI); Anthony Reyes (CLE); Anibal Sanchez (FLA); Ian Snell (PIT); Gio Gonzalez (OAK)