NFL Picks Week 9: Picking Winners for the Entire Slate of Games
And we begin the second half of the 2012 NFL season with teams such as the Indianapolis Colts and Andrew Luck within the AFC's postseason mix.
Considering that only seven teams in the conference boast a winning record, four sit at one game above .500. Along with the Colts in that boat are the Miami Dolphins and both square off in Circle City this week.
Both the Colts and Dolphins were done by this time last year. With that bit of irony, ahead we'll pick this winner in addition to the other winners for the rest of Week 9's action.
Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals
1 of 13Riding a three-game losing streak, the Cincinnati Bengals host Peyton Manning and the red-hot Denver Broncos on Sunday.
All year the Bengals have been suspect against the run and pass, although Cincy is capable of applying solid quarterback pressure. Expect the Broncos to run the ball for balance and reduce the aggression from Cincinnati.
Each of Denver's receivers can beat man coverage, so it simply comes down to pass protection. Defensively, the Broncos just have to isolate A.J. Green and force Andy Dalton to rely on his lesser-established playmakers.
The Broncos' pass rush and coverage is stout, though, so anticipate more running from Cincy early on. Still, it comes down to keeping pace with Manning which is never easy.
Broncos 28, Bengals 17
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
2 of 13At this point in the 2012 season the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns is one intriguing matchup.
Cleveland is hosting with much more confidence than earlier, whereas the Ravens have just one victory over a team with a winning record (New England Patriots). Neither defense has been consistent at slowing anyone down thus far, but each offense presents a sound passing game.
Brandon Weeden must continue making solid decisions, as he has thrown four touchdowns to only one pick in Cleveland's last three games. Joe Flacco hasn't been as fortunate during that same span, so this quarterback duel will be interesting.
In short, the offense that sees more success between the tackles from using the pass to set up the run gains a significant advantage. Because of that, the difference-maker will come on defense: Ed Reed.
Ravens 20, Browns 16
Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers
3 of 13Playing the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field is the Arizona Cardinals' season.
Entering Titletown on a four-game losing streak the Cardinals fail to consistently pass protect and run the ball. Therefore, Green Bay's defense is going to have a field day.
Already having recorded 26 sacks coming into Week 9, Clay Matthews and Co. will be in the backfield throughout. Arizona's only shot at slowing the rush down is by giving Larry Fitzgerald tossups in double coverage.
Still, despite Fitzgerald's ability to beat any type of coverage, Arizona's offense lacks any sort of explosiveness to match Aaron Rodgers. Yes, the Cardinals present a strong defense. But much like Monday night at home versus the San Francisco 49ers, the Packers will gradually wear Arizona down as its offense offers no help: even regarding field position.
Packers 30, Cardinals 10
Chicago Bears at Tennessee Titans
4 of 13Chris Johnson is the sole key to this game for both teams.
The Tennessee Titans must feed Johnson early and often, because they guy is in a rhythm right now and that momentum is important versus the NFL's top rushing defense. Regardless of stats, Tennessee can't afford to abandon the run because the Chicago Bears will force turnovers and turn them into points.
If the Titans can keep Chicago honest, it sets up for a stronger balance later on. As for the Bears, they must stack the box and suffocate in man coverage behind it.
The sooner Brian Urlacher and Co. stuff the run, the sooner Tennessee will take flight and increase the odds of interceptions. Chicago's pass defense is capable of generating an immense number of turnovers, so shutting down the run is the first step.
On the flip side, Jay Cutler and the offense just need to put up 10-14 points that aren't off turnovers. Tennessee is lacking defensively, so with a strong balance and two-back tandem the Bears will move the ball quite well.
Bears 24, Titans 7
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
5 of 13Believe it or not, the Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts is week nine's best game.
On one side we have Andrew Luck and the surging Colts with a 4-3 record and certainly capable of being in the postseason race next month. Miami is rolling with confidence right now coming off a dominant win at the New York Jets and would be 6-1 had it not been for two overtime losses.
Also, according to Omar Kelly of the Sun Sentinel:
"[Ryan] Tannehill, who suffered a left knee injury in last Sunday's 30-9 win over the Jets, participated in Thursday's practice and handled all of the first-team reps during the period the media watched.
Dolphins coach Joe Philbin said Tannehill practiced on a limited basis Thursday and that the coaching staff will evaluate the injury "and make the best decision for the team."
"
Regardless of who starts for Miami, Matt Moore proved he is just as capable after a reliable performance in New York. Now the Colts are also impressive against the pass and have a decent pass rush, so the Dolphins need to remain tough at the point of attack.
Meaning: Miami's strengths are winning in the trenches with run offense and run defense. If this game becomes a shootout, Indy possesses a distinct advantage because of its passing attack. Fortunately, the Dolphins also have a dominant pass rush to assist those in coverage.
Dolphins 21, Colts 20
Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins
6 of 13As much of a quarterback duel we can expect from Cam Newton and Robert Griffin III, this contest will be settled by pass defense.
Both young signal-callers have proven the capability to dice up defense, and both possess the innate athleticism to make plays out of the pocket: whether it's scrambling or launching one downfield.
The common denominator, however, is the pass rush. The Carolina Panthers have an edge with 20 sacks to the Washington Redskins' 14. Still, neither have proven to be dominant on a weekly basis. That said, with two mobile quarterbacks against a suspect front seven whoever can cover longer will win.
Washington ranks dead last against the pass but has recorded 10 interceptions to Carolina's six. Include Newton's ill-advised decision-making so far in 2012 to RG3's much stronger completion percentage and turnovers provide the Redskins an advantage.
Not to mention they also possess the better rushing offense.
Redskins 31, Panthers 23
Detroit Lions at Jacksonville Jaguars
7 of 13As long as the Matthew Stafford-to-Calvin Johnson connection gets going, the Detroit Lions won't have any issues with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Jacksonville's defense fared well on the road versus Green Bay last week, but Detroit is more desperate for a win to remain a part of the NFC's postseason mix. Even if the Jags try to isolate Megatron, they will likely fail since Mel Tucker's defense ranks No. 23 against the pass and has a measly seven sacks on the year.
In short, Stafford will have all day to spread the field and use all dimensions from the pocket. Offensively, Jacksonville doesn't offer much. Per John Oehser of the Jaguars.com:
"MJD and Lowery definitely out Sunday, Mularkey says
— John Oehser (@JohnOehser) October 29, 2012"
Even worse, the Jags have not scored over 23 points in one game this season. Detroit has grown some confidence defensively and does bring a nice pass rush and front seven as well.
Lions 28, Jaguars 13
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
8 of 13Alas we have come to the Mario Williams Bowl. Or that's what this game should be called.
The concern in this game, though, won't be the Buffalo Bills defense versus the Houston Texans offense. It's whether the Buffalo offense can find success against Houston's defense.
J.J. Watt and Co. ranks No. 5 against the pass, No. 3 against the run and allows only 283 total yards and 18.3 points per game. All the Bills offer is a great rushing attack from a two-back tandem in Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller.
Yes, if that gets going, Houston will be in trouble.
Nonetheless, the Texans have the ability to stop the run without having to stack the box. Aside from San Francisco, Houston is the most physically dominant defense Buffalo will see in 2012. But the Texans also get more quarterback pressure and generate more turnovers.
And that's what has been Ryan Fitzpatrick's Achilles Heel this season: turnovers. In addition, Arian Foster and the Houston offense are given additional possessions and control the game from kickoff.
Texans 34, Bills 14
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks
9 of 13Adrian Peterson versus the Seattle Seahawks defense is the obvious key matchup here.
The Minnesota Vikings haven't gotten much from Christian Ponder and the passing game recently, so going a more traditional route in running to set up the pass is the best approach. Unfortunately for Minnesota, Seattle is not only excellent defensively but much better at home.
Along with a 3-0 home record, Seattle has not allowed a single running back to gain over 50 rushing yards with the 12th man backing the defense up. Also, the Seahawks give up an average of only 14 points at home.
Switch to Seattle's offense and it's all about Marshawn Lynch.
It is an attack that's quite similar to Minnesota's, although the Vikings defense does not present as much consistent dominance as Seattle's. Minnesota was exposed versus the run Tampa Bay, and Russell Wilson's arm strength and mobility can prevent the Vikings from loading the box.
Both defenses will get quarterback pressure, but it's who shuts down better against the run that wins this game.
Seahawks 15, Vikings 13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Oakland Raiders
10 of 13One of the more underrated games of week nine is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers playing at the Oakland Raiders.
Ironically, 10 years ago was the 2002 NFL season when the Bucs slammed the Raiders in Super Bowl XXXVII. This game will not be the same in terms of flow or approach.
Both offenses can pound the rock—Doug Martin for Tampa, Darren McFadden for Oakland—and each quarterback possesses a strong arm to thwart downfield. The chess-matchup will come from the Bucs' ground game versus the Raiders' aerial assault.
On one side is a Tampa offense that slams on the ground, and Oakland is vulnerable against the run because of its inconsistent coverage. But on the other side is a suspect Bucs defense versus the pass: the Raiders rank No. 10 in passing offense.
Both sides enter with great confidence, so the difference will be turnovers. Neither front gets a constant pass rush, although Tampa is much more opportunistic courtesy of veteran Ronde Barber.
Buccaneers 23, Raiders 21
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants
11 of 13Something has to give when the Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Giants meet in Week 9.
These two currently possess arguably the most confidence right now, because Pittsburgh is 3-1 in its past four games while Big Blue rides a four-game win streak.
The quarterback play is stellar with Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning, and each offense runs the ball rather well to present a balanced attack. In turn, the defensive fronts must stuff the ground attack and get pressure to assist the coverage: otherwise these quarterbacks will slice and dice all game long.
New York has arguably the most consistently dominant front four with Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck, Chris Canty and Osi Umenyiora. The Steelers aren't as young, although guys like James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley can apply outside pressure.
And this will be the difference, because the Giants have been much more consistent and Manning is protected by his offensive line much better as well.
Giants 27, Steelers 17
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons
12 of 13Since upsetting the Giants in New York to open the season, the Dallas Cowboys are just 2-4.
This week, Dallas travels to the 7-0 Atlanta Falcons on Sunday night. In a game featuring two offenses capable of burning the scoreboard, only one has been consistent: Atlanta.
Matt Ryan and his offense are in the midst of what feels like a career year, whereas Tony Romo and the 'Boys continue to struggle with pass protection, turnovers and running the ball. And if there's one thing the Falcons defense can do, it's force turnovers and significantly change the field position.
The Dirty Birds don't thrive and live off getting turnovers like the Packers of yesteryear, because Atlanta actually locks down in coverage. Thomas DeCoud, Asante Samuel and Dunta Robinson are all great secondary defenders, while the front seven are solid against the intermediate game and applying quarterback pressure.
At least the Cowboys can match Atlanta defensively, because DeMarcus Ware is a stud rusher. In addition, Dallas blankets in coverage quite well but still lacks dominance versus the run. For Atlanta, despite not feeding Michael Turner much in 2012, his bulldozing impact will keep Dallas honest in the Georgia Dome.
Falcons 26, Cowboys 20
Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints
13 of 13Until Michael Vick and the Philadelphia Eagles stop turning the ball over, it's hard to believe this offense will reach full potential.
LeSean McCoy remains one of pro football's premier backs, but he doesn't receive enough carries to make complete impact. Fortunately, Philly gets the New Orleans Saints in week nine despite having to travel to the Big Easy.
New Orleans has one of the worst defenses in NFL history right now, so it's reasonable to expect a solid performance from the Eagles. The question is, can Philly keep up with Drew Brees?
The Saints protect Brees quite well in the pocket and Philly's pass rush has basically been null all year long. It's certainly affected the Eagles pass defense too, because only seven picks have occurred. Sure that's an average of one per game, but with so many turnovers coming from Vick this defense must find another level.
Squaring off against Brees and his array of receiving targets, though, doesn't bode well for an underachieving team.
Saints 28, Eagles 24
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