NASCAR Look Ahead: Bristol, Martinsville, Texas, and Phoenix

NASCAR is taking an early week off, and while it may be too early to talk “Chase” (“Chase” for the Cup, that is, not the “chase” of a mindless crew member after a runaway tire), it’s not too soon to look ahead to the next four races.

Two short track events are up first, Bristol and Martinsville. They'll be followed by two intermediate ovals, Texas and Phoenix. It’s an important four-race stretch, not only for teams looking to maintain or build momentum, but also as a prelude to the Chase, as three of the tracks (Martinsville, Texas, Phoenix) are part of the 10-race series.

While a good result pays off immediately with points, the information gathered during the races could serve larger dividends down the road.

Hendrick Motorsports has seen good and bad already this season. Jeff Gordon's been carrying the team's flag, but his teammates Jimmie Johnson, Mark Martin, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. have struggled somewhat. Still, there's no reason to think they won’t bounce back sooner or later.

Gordon is winless in his last 45 points-paying races, but he has to feel confident that he will end that streak either at Bristol or Martinsville. He's been fast at every event so far this year, and, with two runner-up finishes already, I think it’s safe to say he and the No. 24 Chevrolet are due.

Johnson has neither been great nor awful, and I get the feeling he’s not worried about it. I believe Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus are experimenting with things that may help them down the road. Everyone knows the No. 48 will be there when the Chase starts, and the sight of Knaus under the hood leaves other teams shaking in their boots (and often leaves NASCAR inspectors shaking their fingers).

Martin and Earnhardt Jr. have had their problems (Martin with engine failures and a blown tire; Earnhardt with similar engine issues, overly aggressive driving, and mental lapses on pit road), but they have fast cars.

Engine problems with this team won’t persist. The bottom line is this: If you’re driving a Hendrick car, you’re a threat to win each and every week. Or at least that’s what Earnhardt fans keep telling themselves.

I expect Gordon's drought to end in Bristol, though he'll be battling a strong Richard Childress Racing contingent at Thunder Valley (where Jeff Burton, Kevin Harvick, and Clint Bowyer finished one-two-three last year). Drivers will be aggressive, and, if we’re lucky, we’ll get a few spins that result in a feud worthy of our time (Earnhardt Jr. versus Brian Vickers just didn’t cut it).

Gordon should also be strong in Martinsville, but one of his teammates, either Johnson or Earnhardt Jr., will take the win with Joe Gibbs Racing’s Denny Hamlin hot on their tails.

But back to RCR: The Childress team is a threat (particularlu at Bristol) and should again see solid results there. The squad will be a factor at all four upcoming races, and should Gordon slump just slightly, Bowyer could be there to assume the points lead.  

While no one is surprised that Roush Fenway Racing has two wins so far this year, many may be surprised that neither of those wins belong to Carl Edwards. Matt Kenseth won a rain-shortened Daytona 500 and then won in California.

But Edwards is still the class of the team, and any objection to that by Kenseth will likely raise Edwards’ ire, as well as his fist. Roush Fenway cars have always excelled on flat, intermediate tracks, and they’ll get two shots on their favorite type in consecutive weeks with Texas followed by Phoenix. 

Expect Jack Roush’s starting five to do well on those two tracks, especially Edwards, Kenseth, and Greg Biffle. I predict Edwards to win in Texas.

Yeah, I know, that’s no bold prediction—he won there twice last year. But really, aren’t we all just dying to see an Edwards’ backflip and toothy grin? When this four-race run ends, look for Edwards to be right behind Gordon in the points.

With Tony Stewart fielding his own team, Joe Gibbs Racing isn’t as strong top to bottom as before, but Kyle Busch is still the top dog and the only threat to win the Cup. It’s foolish to think that Busch can go four races without a win, so I’m guessing he wins one of these four. And, since Phoenix is the only race for which I don’t have a winner, put me down for Busch there.

Denny Hamlin seems to hover on the fringe of greatness, never quite able to make the leap from simply being “very good.” This is an important stretch for Hamlin, who has started the season slowly, with only one top-10 finish. He’s out of the top 12 in the points right now, and if he’s not there by the checkered at Phoenix, it may be a long season for him.

As for other teams, Kurt Busch’s win in Atlanta vaulted him well into the top of the point standings and was a reminder that he is championship material. He could very well win in Bristol.

Tony Stewart is off to a great start in the Stewart-Haas Racing No. 14 car, currently sixth in points. I think it’s safe to say he's satisfied with his performance so far, but a satisfied Stewart is nowhere near as entertaining as a dissatisfied Stewart. That’s why I’m not only predicting, but also hoping that Stewart gets bumped or shuffled around at Bristol or Martinsville by someone he feels doesn’t have that right. In other words, anyone.

If the Chase started today, David Reutimann of Michael Waltrip Racing would be in. The next four races will reveal the inevitable—that the writing is on the “Wal-trip,” and Reutimann is doomed to slump.