MLB Free Agency: Predicting the Destinations for the Top 25 Players

The Hot Stove League is officially underway with qualifying offers already submitted and free agents now negotiating their next contracts with all 30 teams.

Josh Hamilton leads the pack as the most coveted and controversial free-agent hitter on the market, though it is unlikely he will approach the mega-contract signed by last offseason's top target, Albert Pujols.

After the 2010 MVP, we see an exciting bunch of center fielders and a few true sluggers who will continue to mash in the middle of the order wherever they sign.  

However, the next tier of free-agent hitters is in large part lacking true impact talent, and just a few of the available infielders will garner significant attention for a starting role.

This should create an offseason flush with trade rumors, but teams will first duke it out to see what they can afford on the free-agent market.

We saw the first major transaction of the winter on Monday when the Red Sox announced their new two-year contract with David Ortiz, marking the unofficial commencement of the free-agent spending spree.

Let's rank the top remaining hitters on the free-agent market and predict where each of the top 25 will sign over the next few months.

Honorable Mention

This year's free-agent market is largely comprised of a veteran group best suited for specific roles in part-time situations or for coming off the bench late in the game. Although these players didn't make it into the top 25, they still provide plenty of value in their own respect.

As with each offseason, there is a group of players that perform better in various platoon splits like Andruw Jones, Jonny Gomes and Nate McLouth.

There are also strong reserve options like David Ross, Miguel Olivo or Placido Polanco, each of whom could be a solid complement to the right roster.

Players like Ty Wigginton and Maicer Izturis will look for utility roles to maximize their versatility, but are also unlikely to find a leading gig.  

The market includes a few postseason heroes like Raul Ibanez, Delmon Young and Ryan Theriot, who each hope to translate their postseason success into a campaign in 2013.

And of course, veterans like Scott Rolen, Eric Chavez, Jim Thome and Johnny Damon will have to decide if now is the time to step away from the game or if they are ready to prepare for another 162-game schedule.

These players all have a chance to provide value next summer, but this article was designed to highlight the top available positions players, and we'll now focus on those that have put themselves in the best position for playing time in 2013.

25. Juan Pierre

Position: LF, CF

Stats: 130 games/.307 AVG/.351 OBP/.371 SLG/6 triples/37 stolen bases

Juan Pierre is a good part-time option for a team in need of plate discipline and speed.

He puts the ball in play (only 27 strikeouts), bunts well (17 sacrifice bunts) and runs the bases effectively (37 steals).

The Reds have been in search of a true leadoff hitter for years as they look to fill the bases with speed ahead of guys like Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce.

Prediction: Cincinnati Reds

Other possibilities: Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox, Atlanta Braves

24. Jeff Keppinger

Position: 2B, 3B, 1B

Stats: 115 games/.325 AVG/.367 OBP/.439 SLG/15 doubles/9 home runs

The free-agent market for non-first basemen infielders is very shallow this year, making dependable production especially valuable.

Jeff Keppinger has been dependable for years and is not prone to damaging platoon splits. He managed to keep his average above .300 against both righties and lefties in 2012.

The Cleveland Indians have fielded a predominantly left-handed lineup over the last two seasons, so a versatile right-handed hitter would be a nice addition to complement their starters.

Prediction: Cleveland Indians

Other possibilities: Tampa Bay Rays, Philadelphia Phillies, Oakland Athletics

23. Carlos Pena

Position: 1B

Stats: 160 games/.197 AVG/.330 OBP/.354 SLG/19 home runs/.995 fielding percentage

Carlos Pena's return to the American League did not go as the Rays hoped it would, as he regressed in nearly every offensive category.

He still shows power and the ability to draw walks in addition to a great glove in the field, but might be best suited in a platoon.

The Cleveland Indians could try to add Pena to their lineup on a one-year deal to split time with right-hander Matt LaPorta.

Prediction: Cleveland Indians

Other possibilities: Tampa Bay Rays, Pittsburgh Pirates, Texas Rangers

22. Carlos Lee

Position: 1B

Stats: 147 games/.264 AVG/.332 OBP/.365 SLG/27 doubles/77 RBI

His days as a consistent 30-home run threat are long gone, but Carlos Lee is still a clutch hitter as evidenced by his .313 average with runners in scoring position.

Lee transitioned to first base full-time in 2012 and played good defense for the Astros and Marlins. 

He may be best suited for a situation where he can split time between first base and designated hitter, and there happens to be an opening for that type of a role with Tampa Bay.

Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays

Other possibilities: Miami Marlins, Houston Astros, Texas Rangers

21. Scott Hairston

Position: LF, CF, RF

Stats: 134 games/.263 AVG/.299 OBP/.504 SLG/25 doubles/20 home runs

Scott Hairston, younger brother to Jerry Hairston, put up good numbers with the Mets in 2012 while playing in a career-high 134 games.

He fared better against lefties than righties, but showed off great power in both scenarios. Scott also displayed good defense in each of the outfield spots.

His power is valuable to the Mets and provides the team with options at each outfield spot.  

Prediction: New York Mets

Other possibilities: Boston Red Sox, Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies

20. Ichiro Suzuki

Position: LF, CF, RF

Stats: 162 games/.283 AVG/.307 OBP/.390 SLG/9 home runs/29 stolen bases

Ichiro Suzuki is one of the greatest players of this generation and will make the Hall of Fame before it's all said and done. He already has 10 All-Star Game appearances and 10 Gold Gloves on his resume and is just a few years away from 3,000 career hits.

At this point, Ichiro provides a team with a consistent approach at the plate and solid defense in any of the three outfield positions.

Boston could return to contender status with a smart offseason, and currently has openings in both corner outfield spots.

Prediction: Boston Red Sox

Other possibilities: Tampa Bay Rays, Detroit Tigers, San Francisco Giants

19. Kelly Johnson

Position: 2B

Stats: 142 games/.225/.313/.365/16 home runs/14 stolen bases

With Kelly Johnson, you know what you're going to get, and that provides teams with a certain value.

His production has declined slightly in recent seasons, but over the past three years he has still averaged approximately 147 games, 21 home runs, 61 RBI, 14 stolen bases, 156 strikeouts and nine errors.

Those are respectable numbers for a second baseman, and will help him find an opportunity to start, potentially back in Toronto.

Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays

Other possibilities: Minnesota Twins, San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals

18. Russell Martin

Position: C

Stats: 133 games/.211 AVG/.311 OBP/.403 SLG/21 home runs/53 RBI

Russell Martin displayed strong defense and set a career high in home runs this season, but also had career lows in batting average and on-base percentage.

He's the youngest starting catcher available via free agency and has shown the ability to compete in baseball's toughest division, which are both compelling factors to consider.

Martin has also created a strong rapport with the Yankees' pitching staff, which certainly increases his value to the team.  

Prediction: New York Yankees

Other possibilities: Chicago White Sox, Texas Rangers, Tampa Bay Rays

17. Ryan Ludwick

Position: LF, RF

Stats: 125 games/.275 AVG/.346 OBP/.531 SLG/28 doubles/26 home runs

Ryan Ludwick bounced back after a down year in 2011 to provide the Reds with another solid bat in the heart of the lineup.

He carried that success into the postseason and hit three home runs for Cincinnati in the NLDS.

There appears to be mutual interest in a reunion between the outfielder and the organization, but there is a question of whether there will be room in the team's outfield, as the Reds have other in-house options such as Drew Stubbs and Chris Heisey.

Ludwick will still have plenty of suitors and could fit nicely into Cleveland's lineup as the Indians' left fielder.

Prediction: Cleveland Indians

Other possibilities: Philadelphia Phillies, Cincinnati Reds, Miami Marlins

16. Lance Berkman

Position: 1B

Stats: 32 games/.259 AVG/.381 OBP/.444 SLG/2 home runs/7 RBI

Lance Berkman has been a strong run producer for years, and is one of the best switch-hitters of this generation, boasting 360 home runs and 1,200 RBI over the last 14 years.

Most teams likely view him as a designated hitter and part-time first baseman at this stage given his recent injuries, but we need not forget that he's just one year removed from a 31 home run, 94 RBI campaign for the World Champion St. Louis Cardinals.

Berkman will stay in shape this winter and see what kind of offers roll in, but may decide that now is the time to hang up the spikes.

One potential fit would be a reunion with the Houston Astros, who now need to sign a designated hitter and could trade him to a contender at the deadline if necessary.

Prediction: Houston Astros

Other possibilities: New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles

15. A.J. Pierzynski

Position: C

Stats: 135 games/.278 AVG/.326 OBP/.501 SLG/27 home runs/77 RBI

A.J. Pierzynski enjoyed his best season at age 35 in 2012 when he reached the 20 home run mark for his first time.

He is a constant competitor who frequently gets on the nerves of opposing players, managers and fans, but that kind of attitude can be a valuable commodity if he's on your team. 

A.J. has been a good fit on the South Side of Chicago, but other teams will certainly be calling, and he could find himself with a handful of multi-year offers.

Prediction: Chicago White Sox

Other possibilities: New York Yankees, Texas Rangers, Chicago Cubs

14. Kevin Youkilis

Position: 3B

Stats: 122 games/.235 AVG/.336 OBP/.409 SLG/19 home runs/60 RBI

One of Kevin Youkilis' top attributes, his knack for getting on base, has tailed off in recent years. He dropped from a career-high .413 on-base percentage in 2009 to a career-low .336 in 2012.

He is entering free agency after a couple of down years, but is still the best option available in a market lacking many alternatives at the hot corner. Youk's power potential and playoff experience are desirable traits for many teams that are just a few pieces away from playoff contention.

He is also a bit younger than a couple of other 2012 starters in Brandon Inge and Scott Rolen, the latter of whom is contemplating retirement. He would be a nice right-handed addition to a veteran Phillies team looking to return to the playoffs.

Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

Other possibilities: Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels, Atlanta Braves

13. Stephen Drew

Position: SS

Stats: 79 games/.223 AVG/.309 OBP/.348 SLG/7 home runs/28 RBI

The younger Drew brother is hitting the free-agent market after his two worst seasons as a pro, each of which included sub-par numbers and injuries. However, given the lack of depth in the market on the left side of the infield, Stephen Drew will still find a solid offer.

He played better after getting moved to Oakland late in the summer and could certainly re-sign with the A's this winter. The team will need to acquire another infielder one way or another, as they recently sent fellow shortstop Cliff Pennington to the Arizona Diamondbacks in a trade for outfielder Chris Young.

Prediction: Oakland Athletics

Other possibilities: St. Louis Cardinals, Boston Red Sox, Seattle Mariners

12. Cody Ross

Position: LF, CF, RF

Stats: 130 games/.267 AVG/.326 OBP/.481 SLG/22 home runs/81 RBI

Cody Ross was a consistent producer for Boston despite an otherwise tumultuous season in Red Sox Nation. A reunion between he and the Red Sox would make sense for many reasons both in terms of his bat and his glove.

His ability to play all three outfield positions is important, as Boston is without definite starters in the outfield corners, and center field could also be up for grabs if the team looks to trade Jacoby Ellsbury instead of negotiating an extension.

Prediction: Boston Red Sox

Other possibilities: New York Mets, Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies

11. Shane Victorino

Position: LF, CF, RF

Stats: 154 games/.255 AVG/.321 OBP/.383 SLG/11 home runs/39 stolen bases

Shane Victorino has reached free agency, but is coming off arguably his worst season as a starter. He is an exciting player with the ability to handle each outfield spot, and provides offensive skills that can complement any lineup when he is playing well.

The Dodgers seemed like a good fit until the team pulled off the mega-trade that brought Carl Crawford to Hollywood.

Victorino may need to sign a short-term deal in the hopes of rebuilding enough value for one more large contract.

The Giants don't figure to spend too aggressively on free agents this winter, but might be able to add Victorino if Angel Pagan's contract demands rise too high.

Prediction: San Francisco Giants

Other possibilities: Cincinnati Reds, Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves

10. Torii Hunter

Position: LF, RF

Stats: 140 games/.313 AVG/.365 OBP/.451 SLG/16 home runs/92 RBI

Torii Hunter quietly put up one of his best seasons at the plate, posting a career-best .313 average and driving in 92 runs. From the outside looking in, his production was overshadowed by other storylines, including the addition of Pujols and the emergence of top prospect Mike Trout.  

His defense is still solid, although his Spiderman-like catches are a little less common at this stage of his career.

Hunter is a fan favorite for good reason, and brings intangibles that can go beyond his presence at the plate or in the outfield.

He is looking for a chance to win, and the consistently competitive New York Yankees have an opening in right field.

Prediction: New York Yankees

Other possibilities: Texas Rangers, Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox

9. Marco Scutaro

Position: 2B, SS, 3B

Stats: 156 games/.306 AVG/.348 OBP/.405 SLG/32 doubles/74 RBI

Marco Scutaro was already enjoying a solid season in Denver before a midseason trade propelled him to an even stronger second half in San Francisco. After the trade, the infielder hit .362 with a .385 on-base percentage and a .473 slugging average in 61 regular-season games, doing his part to carry his new team to the playoffs and eventually to another World Series victory.

He provides offense, versatility and leadership, which are all good bargaining chips, especially in this winter's thin free-agent market for infielders. 

It is known that he enjoyed playing in San Francisco, and the team appears to be interested in bringing him back.

Prediction: San Francisco Giants

Other possibilities: St. Louis Cardinals, Oakland Athletics, Philadelphia Phillies

8. Angel Pagan

Position: LF, CF, RF

Stats: 154 games/.288 AVG/.338 OBP/.440 SLG/38 doubles/29 stolen bases

Angel Pagan quickly became a solid contributor after earning regular playing time with the Mets in 2009.

The former Rule 5 Draft pick is part of a deep center-field class this winter and may need to sign early before the higher-profile players like B.J. Upton and Michael Bourn take spots.

Pagan will find at least a three-year deal, and his switch-hitting abilities would be a good fit at the top of the Braves' lineup card if they can't re-sign Bourn.

Prediction: Atlanta Braves

Other possibilities: San Francisco Giants, Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Brewers

7. Melky Cabrera

Position: LF, CF, RF

Stats: 113 games/.346 AVG/.390 OBP/.516 SLG/11 home runs/60 RBI

Numerous questions popped up when the news broke that Melky Cabrera had been suspended for the use of performance-enhancing drugs. His stock was at an all-time high (All-Star Game MVP, leading the league in batting average, a key contributor on a contending team) and he was prepared to enter free agency for the first time.

Cabrera's suspension aligned directly with the end of the season, meaning that he would not have a chance to reestablish his value before free agency, but he also will not miss any games at the beginning of the 2013 season.

Melky is part of a deep outfield class, but his combination of plate discipline and power will still create a market for the 28-year-old.

I see him pursuing a one-year deal to rebuild his value before entering the market once again. A team like the Cubs could offer him a one-year contract to hit at the top of the lineup, and they could always trade him for prospects if he returns to form by midseason.

Prediction: Chicago Cubs

Other possibilities: New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox

6. Mike Napoli

Positions: C, 1B

Stats: 108 games/.227 AVG/.343 OBP/.469 SLG/9 doubles/24 home runs

The power-hitting catcher was looking primed for a huge contract after his contribution to the Rangers' World Series run in 2011, but then saw his averages drop significantly in 2012 (batting average was down .93, on-base percentage dipped by .71 and slugging percentage fell by .162).

Don't get me wrong, Napoli is still a great option for teams in search of a right-handed hitting catcher, but the fluctuations in his production over the past few years is cause for some concern when contemplating a long-term deal.

Napoli is still the best option for the Rangers, and a two-year deal would make sense.

Prediction: Texas Rangers

Other possibilities: New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates

5. Adam LaRoche

Position: 1B

Stats: 154 games/.271 AVG/.343 OBP/.510 SLG/33 home runs/100 RBI

Adam LaRoche rebounded after an injury-riddled 2011 season to reach exactly 100 RBI for the second time in three years. He also won his first Gold Glove.

LaRoche is a consistent offensive threat and is well-positioned to receive a multi-year offer. He and the Nationals have expressed mutual interest, but they could always spend the money elsewhere and shift Michael Morse to first base.

I expect him to return to Washington on a three-year deal which would allow the Nationals to trade Morse for more pitching.

Prediction: Washington Nationals

Other possibilities: Boston Red Sox, Cleveland Indians, Baltimore Orioles

4. Michael Bourn

Position: CF

Stats: 155 games/.274 AVG/.348 OBP/.391 SLG/9 home runs/42 stolen bases

Bourn is a good leadoff hitter that can create havoc on the basepath due to his burning speed. He will join the 300-steal club next season, but will he reach that plateau in a Braves uniform? He has been a great contributor in Atlanta for the last season and a half, but many teams will be vying for his services.

Washington has long been speculated as a destination for the outfielder, and it would be a logical fit, allowing Bryce Harper to move over to left field.

Prediction: Washington Nationals

Other possibilities: Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Brewers, Atlanta Braves

3. B.J. Upton

Position: CF

Stats: 146 games/.246 AVG/.298 OBP/.454 SLG/28 home runs/31 stolen bases

B.J. Upton provides the rare combination of speed and power that could still conceivably lead to seasons of 30-30 production.

He is only 28, which makes him one of the youngest free agents in the market and a player that teams could count on for years to come. 

Philadelphia needs outfielders, and Upton's skill-set would be a great addition to their lineup.

Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies

Other possibilities: Washington Nationals, Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox

2. Nick Swisher

Position: LF, RF, 1B

Stats: 148 games/.272 AVG/.364 OBP/.473 SLG/36 doubles/24 home runs

Nick Swisher has been one of the most consistent middle-of-the-order hitters over the last decade, reaching at least 21 home runs in each of the last nine campaigns and boasting a career OBP of .361.

His ability to play multiple positions and his propensity for getting on base make him a strong candidate for a four- or five-year deal. He has also been known as a good teammate in the clubhouse.

The Mariners have been lacking consistent production in the middle of their order for quite some time and could rotate Swisher between the outfield corners and first base as needed. 

Prediction: Seattle Mariners

Other possibilities: Baltimore Orioles, Philadelphia Phillies, Boston Red Sox

1. Josh Hamilton

Position: LF, CF, RF

Stat line: 148 games/.285 AVG/.354 OBP/.577 SLG/43 home runs/128 RBI

As one of the greatest talents of all-time, Josh Hamilton is sure to find plenty of qualified suitors this offseason. However, that talent does come with a level of concern.

Hamilton's history includes drug abuse and multiple stays on the disabled list, factors that could limit the length of contract offers he sees this winter.

That being said, his production over the past few years has been as good as it gets, and that's extremely valuable for a team that feels it is one impact bat away from contention. He will undoubtedly find offers worth a high annual average in a short-term pact, but the question is: Will anyone go to five or six years for this perennial MVP candidate?

Hamilton has found a home in Texas, and the Rangers have built their contending teams around his outstanding power. Continuing this partnership makes the most sense for both the player and the organization.

Prediction: Texas Rangers

Other possibilities: Milwaukee Brewers, Atlanta Braves, New York Yankees