Tigers vs. Cardinals: What If the St. Louis Cardinals Didn't Blow the NLCS?

Who would’ve thought that the St. Louis Cardinals would blow a 3-1 series lead to the San Francisco Giants? The Detroit Tigers may have had their tickets in hand to fly to Busch Stadium for Game 1 of the World Series on Wednesday night.

The never-say-die Cardinals said die on Monday night to the new never-say-die Giants. The Cardinals pitching wasn’t even close to what they showed through the first four games of the series, and the offense went cold. The Giants did everything right in turning the NLCS around and coming into Game 7 with all of the momentum necessary to advance to the World Series.

We’ll never know what would have come out of a Tigers-Cardinals World Series, but I’m going to take a crack at it. Here’s a complete preview of what would’ve been the World Series matchup if the Cardinals didn’t blow it.

Detroit Tigers Starting Lineup

Starting Lineup

1. Austin Jackson, CF (.300/.377/.479, 16 HR, 66 RBI)

2. Quintin Berry, LF (.258/.330/.354, 2 Hr, 29 RBI)

3. Miguel Cabrera, 3B (.330/.393/.606, 44 HR, 139 RBI)

4. Prince Fielder, 1B (.313/.412/.528, 30 HR, 108 RBI)

5. Delmon Young, DH (.267/.296/.411, 18 HR, 74 RBI)

6. Jhonny Peralta, SS (.239/.305/.384, 13 HR, 63 RBI)

7. Andy Dirks, RF (.322/.370/.487, 8 HR, 35 RBI)

8. Alex Avila, C (.243/.352/.384, 9 HR, 48 RBI)

9. Omar Infante, 2B (.257/.283/.385, 4 HR, 20 RBI)

Bench

Gerald Laird, C (.282/.337/.374, 2 HR, 11 RBI)

Ramon Santiago, INF (.206/.283/.272, 2 HR, 17 RBI)

Danny Worth, 2B (.216/.330/.257, 0 HR, 3 RBI)

Avisail Garcia, OF (.319/.373/.319, 0 HR, 3 RBI)

Don Kelly, OF (.186/.276/.248, 1 HR, 7 RBI)

Outlook

The Tigers featured a powerful lineup throughout the regular season and have been led by some of the unlikely bats during the postseason.

Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera went 10-for-36 with just one home run through the first two rounds of the MLB playoffs while Prince Fielder (8-for-38) has been non-existent at the plate. Instead, role players like Jhonny Peralta (12-for-35) and Delmon Young (10-for-34) each had two home runs just in the ALCS.

Austin Jackson has done a nice a job atop the Detroit lineup getting on base and scoring often, as has Omar Infante who has hit in the No. 2 and No. 9 spots during the postseason. The Tigers, however, have struggled with their catchers—Alex Avila and Gerald Laird—who are a combined 6-for-35 in Detroit’s nine playoff games with 14 strikeouts.

This offense still has plenty of potential to be explosive against the Cardinals’ pitchers, but Jim Leyland will have to decide what to do with Young when the Tigers play at Busch Stadium. Either Leyland will have to sit Young, or play him over Quintin Berry, Andy Dirks or Avisail Garcia. Playing Young gives up a lot on defense, but his bat is huge and that may be enough to keep him in the lineup.

St. Louis Cardinals Starting Lineup

Starting Lineup

1. Jon Jay, CF (.305/.373/.400, 4 HR, 40 RBI)

2. Carlos Beltran, RF (.269/.346/.495, 32 HR, 97 RBI)

3. Matt Holliday, LF (.295/.379/.497, 27 HR, 102 RBI)

4. Allen Craig, 1B (.307/.354/.522, 22 HR, 92 RBI)

5. Yadier Molina, C (.315/.373/.501, 22 HR, 76 RBI)

6. David Freese, 3B (.293/.372/.467, 20 HR, 79 RBI)

7. Daniel Descalso, 2B (.227/.303/.324, 4 HR, 26 RBI)

8. Pete Kozma, SS (.333/.383/.569, 2 HR, 14 RBI)

9. Starting Pitcher

Bench

Tony Cruz, C (.254/.267/.365,1 HR, 11 RBI)

Matt Carpenter, UTL (.294/.365/.463, 6 HR, 46 RBI)

Skip Schumaker, UTL (.276/.339/.368, 1 HR, 28 RBI)

Adron Chambers, OF (.222/.300/.296, 0 HR, 4 RBI)

Shane Robinson, OF (.253/.309/.355, 3 HR, 16 RBI)

Outlook

There’s no better bat in the St. Louis lineup than Carlos Beltran, who has been scorching hot since the postseason started. He leads the team in postseason hits, doubles, home runs, total bases, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS. Keeping him off the basepaths is going to be extremely difficult for the Detroit pitchers.

Last year’s World Series hero, David Freese, has also been hitting well over the last two weeks. Freese can really do a lot of damage in the middle of the Cardinals’ lineup, hitting behind Matt Holliday and Allen Craig.

The surprise this postseason for St. Louis has been the play of rookie shortstop Pete Kozma as well as Matt Carpenter. Kozma has come up with some big hits while Carpenter slugged a home run when Beltran sat with a knee issue.

Yadier Molina has been pretty good this postseason and in order for the Cardinals to repeat as World Champions, he has keep it up. If he doesn’t, Mike Matheny has to shift him lower in the lineup and move Freese up a few spots.

Detroit Tigers Pitching Rotation and Bullpen

Starting Rotation

1. Justin Verlander (17-8, 2.74 ERA, 238 IP)

2. Doug Fister (10-10, 3.45 ERA, 161.2 IP)

3. Anibal Sanchez (4-6, 3.74 ERA, 74.2 IP)

4. Max Scherzer (16-7, 2.64 ERA, 187.2 IP)

Bullpen

Phil Coke, LHP (66 G, 4.00 ERA)

Octavio Dotel, RHP (57 G, 3.57 ERA)

Drew Smyly, LHP (23 G, 3.99 ERA)

Al Alburquerque, RHP (8 G, 0.68 ERA)

Rick Porcello, RHP (31 G, 4.59 ERA)

Joaquin Benoit, RHP (73 G, 3.68 ERA)

Jose Valverde, RHP (71 G, 3.78 ERA, 35 SV)

Outlook

The Tigers have the benefit of having the best pitcher on the face of the Earth on the mound for at least two of the potential seven games of the World Series.

That man is Justin Verlander and he has been remarkable this season and postseason, allowing just two earned runs in 24.1 innings, striking out 25 in the process. There has yet to be a batter during the playoffs who has figured Verlander out, and that should continue through the World Series.

Pitching behind Detroit’s ace are three guys who have all pitched well in the postseason: Doug Fister (0-0, 1.35 ERA, 13.1 IP), Anibal Sanchez (1-1, 1.35 ERA, 13.1 IP) and Max Scherzer (1-0, 0.82 ERA, 11 IP). All three have been virtually untouchable since the postseason started, but each will have the tough task of shutting down the dangerous St. Louis lineup.

The only pitching issues that we’ve seen from the Tigers in the playoffs have been toward the end of the game when Leyland goes to Joaquin Benoit and Jose Valverde. Benoit hasn’t pitched well in his four appearances and Valverde has been such a disaster that Phil Coke has served as the team’s closer.

St. Louis Cardinals Pitching Rotation and Bullpen

Starting Rotation

1. Adam Wainwright (14-13, 3.94 ERA, 198.2 IP)

2. Kyle Lohse (16-3, 2.86 ERA, 211 IP)

3. Lance Lynn (18-7, 2.78 ERA, 176 IP)

4. Chris Carpenter (0-2, 3.71 ERA, 17 IP)

Bullpen

Mitchell Boggs, RHP (78 G, 2.21 ERA)

Joe Kelly, RHP (24 G, 3.53 ERA)

Shelby Miller, RHP (6 G, 1.32 ERA)

Jason Motte, RHP (67 G, 2.75 ERA, 42 SV)

Edward Mujica, RHP (29 G, 1.03 ERA)

Trevor Rosenthal, RHP (19 G, 2.78 ERA)

Marc Rzepczynski, LHP (70 G, 4.24 ERA)

Fernando Salas, RHP (65 G, 4.30 ERA)

Outlook

St. Louis will likely open Game 1 with Adam Wainwright on the mound, who has pitched well in two of three outings this postseason. He really struggled the second time around against the Washington Nationals when he allowed six earned runs in 2.1 innings. He’s only allowed one run in each of the other two starts.

Kyle Lohse and Lance Lynn have been up and down, and the Cardinals hope that Chris Carpenter continues his postseason success. If the series goes to all seven games, it will be interesting to see if they use Carpenter in Game 7 or switch around their rotation for Lohse to start since he's been a little better, despite struggling in Game 7 of the NLCS.

The Cardinal bullpen has been pretty good during the postseason and those arms are the true reason why St. Louis is still in contention for back-to-back World Series titles. Mitchell Boggs, Joe Kelly, Trevor Rosenthal and Marc Rzepczynski all haven’t allowed a run in 18 combined innings going into Game 5 of the NLCS.

Detroit Tigers X-Factors

Winning on the Road

The Detroit Tigers were not a very good road team this season, going 38-43 at opponents’ venues despite getting outscored by just eight runs. In the postseason, the Tigers’ success on the road has varied. They lost two games to the A’s in Oakland before winning a pivotal Game 5 away from Comerica Park, and then won two games at Yankees Stadium.

Detroit needs to take at least one of the first two games at Busch Stadium in order to be able to potentially win the World Series at home. Can they turn the tables on the Cardinals and take their home field advantage away?

Can Jose Valverde Handle the Pressure?

Jose Valverde—who was Detroit’s closer for entire season—has had a rough postseason. After saving Game 1 of the ALDS against the A’s with ease, he started to struggle. In Game 4, he blew the save after allowing a two-run double to Seth Smith and then a walk-off single to Coco Crisp.

Then in Game 1 of the ALCS, Valverde failed to produce again. The Tigers held a four-run lead going into the bottom of the ninth, only to see Valverde allow a pair of two-run home runs by Ichiro Suzuki and Raul Ibanez. Detroit eventually won the game, but it was no thanks to Valverde. He has to be better in the World Series.

St. Louis Cardinals X-Factors

Will Home-Field Advantage Be an Advantage?

Since the National League won the 2012 MLB All-Star Game, the Cardinals get the privilege of potentially playing four home games during the World Series. During the regular season, the Cardinals tied for the second-best home record in baseball with 50 wins.

This postseason, the Cardinals lost just two home games, winning the other four including the series-clincher on Friday night. Can they keep up their home success for a couple more games, or will home-field advantage become a major disadvantage?

Is Carlos Beltran 100 Percent?

If the Cardinals are going to win the World Series, they’re going to need Carlos Beltran toward the top of their lineup. Beltran has battled knee issues that forced him to leave after just one inning in Game 3 and caused him to sit for Game 4. He did play in Game 5, but this cannot be a reoccurring issue.

St. Louis has to make sure that Beltran gets the time that he needs for his knee to be as close to 100 percent as possible, so that he can play at a high level. The last thing the Cards need is for him to re-aggravate it and miss the most important games of the year.

World Series Predictions

Series Prediction: Detroit Tigers 4, St. Louis Cardinals 2 

The St. Louis Cardinals have a very good team, but the Detroit Tigers are better. They have the best hitter in baseball and the best pitcher, and that’s going to be tough to beat—not to mention that they have a great overall team as well.

Offensively, Prince Fielder will wake up and Miguel Cabrera will be the Miguel Cabrera that we saw all season long. Austin Jackson will continue to produce and give the Cardinals’ pitchers headaches while Delmon Young cools off, and yet still manages to drive in runs.

Detroit’s pitching staff will control the entire series, led by Justin Verlander who will pitch twice against the Cardinals. Verlander will win both of his starts, Anibal Sanchez will lose Game 3, Max Scherzer will win Game 5 and then Doug Fister will dominate Game 6 to bring the World Series title back to Motown. 

World Series MVP: Miguel Cabrera. Detroit Tigers

Miguel Cabrera will be the big difference between the Cardinals and Tigers in the World Series. He only has one postseason home run through the ALDS and ALCS, but that will change when he hits three long balls during the Fall Classic. It’s still up for debate whether he’ll win the regular season MVP or not, but he’ll at least have the World Series MVP if he doesn’t—and a ring too.

Biggest Goat: Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals

Lance Lynn led the Cardinals in wins during the regular season, but one of his seven losses came against the Tigers. In that game, Detroit hit him hard for five earned runs in five innings of work. He has been quite a bit of a mess throughout the playoffs and it will get worst when he faces the Tigers for the second time this year, only this time coming in the World Series. Don't be shocked if he lets up another nine hits this time around.