NFL Power Rankings Week 6: Which Teams Are Rising and Falling?

Predicting the future is hard work, especially when it comes to the NFL.

We know so much after the first five weeks, but do we really know anything at all?

We know that San Francisco and Atlanta will likely battle for home field advantage—and that it's likely the Chicago Bears will want a say in that too.

We know the AFC still runs through New England, as well as Houston and Baltimore.

We don't know why the Green Bay Packers are struggling, but have an idea as to why Minnesota is playing so well.

But do we know who's rising and who's falling? It depends on the team—and even then all we can make is a very educated guess.

Let's take that educated guess about all 32 teams in the NFL, conveniently ranked by my own Power Rankings, which are based on the Pythagorean Projection for each team and points differential. I'll also include their projected Pythagorean final record so that we could look at where these figures tell us these teams will finish. These two factors will tell us who's rising in the NFL, and who's falling.

32. Jacksonville Jaguars—Falling

Record: 1-4

Pythagorean Record: 0.7-4.2

Point Differential: -73

This is far and away the worst team in the NFL.

Blaine Gabbert isn't the answer at quarterback, and if you're a Jaguars fan pining for Chad Henne to come in, go take a look at my archive and come back to me while remembering that Henne had better receivers and a better defense in Miami.

Now the Pythagorean Projection I'm putting at the bottom says that the Jags will finish the season 2-14; however I wonder out of their schedule which game will be that second and final win?

Well they actually have a few contenders; Oakland (after the Jags bye week), Detroit (the Lions have looked terrible this year), and two chances against the Titans (we'll get to them on the next slide).

Getting away from the math portion, I'm not too sure if Jacksonville will win any of those games. They better hope Cleveland wins a few games so that the Jaguars could end this Gabbert-nonsense and usher in the Geno Smith-era.

Oh by the way I have to ask, why does Kevin Elliot's mouthpiece look like a pacifier?

Projected Pythagorean Final Record: 2-14

31. Tennessee Titans—Falling

Record: 1-4

Pythagorean Record: 0.8-4.3

Point Differential: -93

The Titans don't have the worst record, nor the worst Pythagorean Record. They do have the worst point differential in the NFL, but the crazy thing is they're still not even the worst team in their division.

Sadly for the Titans, this team is falling fast. Jake Locker's shoulder seems to be a huge problem for him that might require surgery down the road (per The Tennessean), Chris Johnson isn't producing, and backup running back Javon Ringer is likely out for the season (per CBSSports.com).

Even though so much is going wrong for the Titans, this is still a bad team that takes the field every Sunday, and it won't get any better as they still have one more meeting with the Texans, two against the fast-rising Colts, and games against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers.

Everyone else on their schedule, save for the Jacksonville Jaguars, is better than them—and even then I'm not sure they could sweep the Jags.

Projected Pythagorean Final Record: 2-14

30. Oakland Raiders—Falling

Record: 1-3

Pythagorean Record: 0.7-3.3

Point Differential: -58

It was a close call deciding whether the Oakland Raiders or Kansas City Chiefs were the worst AFC West teams, but I went with the Raiders due to the fact that their point differential is seven points lower than Kansas City (who's at -51) despite playing (and losing) one less game.

Oakland is an old team that's devoid of draft picks and hope for the future. They gave up far too much for Carson Palmer (a quarterback who was sitting out hoping for a trade while his then-current team was marching towards the playoffs), and they're going to have to pay the piper for mortgaging their future at some point in time.

I just had no idea that point in time would be this season, and neither did the Raiders. Luckily for them (or unluckily depending on your view point), they do have winnable games coming up against Jacksonville and Cleveland, as well as two games against the Chiefs—a team that might be in just as bad a shape as the Raiders.

Projected Pythagorean Record: 3-13

29. Kansas City Chiefs—Falling

Record: 1-4

Pythagorean Record: 1.3-3.7

Point Differential: -51

If you hold a Super Bowl contender like the Baltimore Ravens to nine points, you should win the game no matter how bad of a team you may be.

Interestingly enough, holding Baltimore to only nine points is why the Chiefs are ranked so high, relatively speaking. This is another terrible team (ever wonder what's going on with the AFC that they're so bad, our bottom four consists of AFC teams and we haven't gotten to any NFC teams yet) from the AFC West, which itself validates Peyton Manning's decision to sign with Denver.

This team is going to have to clean house this season, much like the three teams behind them on the list.

Projected Pythagorean Record: 4-12

28. Cleveland Browns—Rising

Record: 0-5

Pythagorean Record: 1.6-3.4

Point Differential: -39

This team is a feisty one. They're 0-5, but they've played better than the talent on the team (outside of Trent Richardson it isn't much), and fight in every game they're in.

Look at their schedule thus far; no blowouts. Their worst defeat came to the Giants last Sunday, and the funny thing is Cleveland led by 17 at one point in the game. Their average margin of defeat has been 7.8, which for a terrible team (which they are), isn't that bad.

Their schedule does open up a lot of hope for wins. On Sunday a vastly overrated Bengals team comes to town. Their last meeting saw the Browns lose by seven. That's a good possibility for Cleveland's first win of the season, but it's not their only possible win.

The Browns of this year remind me of last season's Miami Dolphins, who started 0-7 before finishing the season on a 6-3 clip. While the turnaround doesn't seem like it will be that drastic, I say the Browns are rising. 

This is only because they're a better team than their winless record indicates and will fight every team they play until the last whistle—which is a great recipe for upsets.

Projected Pythagorean Final Record: 5-11

27. Carolina Panthers—in Neutral

Record: 1-4

Pythagorean Record: 1.6-3.4

Point Differential: -33

I'm flat out confused about this team. I thought going into the year they had playoff potential, but instead they seem to check out of games when it isn't going their way.

That wasn't the Panthers last season. They were a bad team last season, but that was obscured by how exciting it was to watch Cam Newton play. This season, however, it's not too exciting to watch him play anymore because defenses know how to prepare for him. On top of that, he doesn't have too many weapons outside of Steve Smith (who's now starting to show his age) and their running backs (who Cam himself is out-rushing).

Let's not get started on Carolina's defense, or should we? A good question to ask is, "where are they?" They haven't been too good either.

This team might pick up a few more wins down the stretch, as they still have to face the entire AFC West, as well as a surprisingly bad team that I will mention in the next slide.

Projected Pythagorean Final Record: 5-11

26. Dallas Cowboys—Falling

Record: 2-2

Pythagorean Record: 1.3-2.7

Point Differential: -23

How surprised are all of you that Dallas ranks so low in my power rankings? How surprised are you that this formula actually shows that the Cowboys are a far worse team than even their record indicates.

Now while you might equate their point differential (and Pythagorean Record) to two bad games, keep in mind that having two bad games out of four is still half of your schedule thus far. As for that victory over the Bucs in Week 3, that wasn't exactly a great performance either.

This team is terrible, and it will be seen as they continue their season.

Projected Pythagorean Final Record: 5-11

25. New York Jets—Falling

Record: 2-3

Pythagorean Record: 1.7-3.3

Point Differential: -34

I have to hand it to the Jets. After Mark Sanchez threw that red-zone interception prior to halftime, I thought that team would fold and not even show up for the second half.

Instead their defense and special teams made it a ball game, while their offense showed signs of promise, yet never cashed in on numerous opportunities. This will be a game the Jets can look at and say that they should've had.

But does that mean this team is rising? No, not one bit. That offense is still too atrocious to really do anything, and you can't count on your special teams to give you a kickoff return in every game.

On top of that, their point differential is still a terrible -34, and while their defense did step up on Monday Night, they're still a shell of what they were in the past (and would be even if they still had Darrelle Revis).

Projected Pythagorean Record: 5-11

24. New Orleans Saints—Rising

Record: 1-4

Pythagorean Record: 2.2-2.8

Point Differential: -13

This is not a bad team, but I'm sure I didn't have to tell you that. Bad situation, yes (but it's their own fault). Bad defense, yes (not so much their fault, Jonathan Vilma shouldn't have been suspended the whole year). But not a bad team, not as long as they have Brees.

Their Pythagorean record even proves this, as does their point differential and even their turnover differential. Now look at their schedule and you will see plenty of winnable games.

Plus, couldn't you see this team drive a stake into Atlanta's shot at home field advantage by sweeping them? I know I could, especially with Joe Vitt (their real interim coach) being back for both of those games.

Projected Pythagorean Final Record: 7-9

23. Detroit Lions—Falling

Record: 1-3

Pythagorean Record: 1.7-2.3

Point Differential: -14

The Lions have to hate the division they're in this season because it really doesn't look like things are going to get better for them. Unless, the Vikings run out of steam and the Bears get hit by the same injury bug that nabbed them last season, while the Packers continue to slide thanks in part to their poor defense.

One of those things might happen, two of those things might happen, but not all three. This division is too good for Detroit to overcome bad losses to the Tennessee Titans and their division rival Minnesota Vikings. The Titans one really stings because the Titans flat-out stink, and a team as good as the Lions are supposed to beat that team nine times out of 10.

With that being said, the point differential isn't too bad, and the Pythagorean Record isn't great but for their record is slightly better. So they are playing better than their record would indicate, but not even that's good enough.

Their upcoming schedule is quite a doozy, with two games against both the Bears and Packers and one more game against the Vikings. Also included are the Atlanta Falcons and Houston Texans, with the Texans being their Thanksgiving day game.

It doesn't look too promising in Detroit, at least when you're talking about football. As for baseball, that's a much different story.

Projected Pythagorean Final Record: 7-9

22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers—Rising

Record: 1-3

Pythagorean Record: 1.8-2.2

Point Differential: -9

The Buccaneers seem like one of those teams that are poised to start off a season slowly then bounce back after their bye week. What do you know, the upcoming week is after their bye week, and they play the horrible Kansas City Chiefs next!

That's the perfect game for a young team like the Bucs to either show that they're truly rising, or show that they're truly immature. Mature teams win games like the one the Bucs have: a bad and hopeless team at home.

If this team were in the AFC I would keep my eyes on them going to the playoffs. But in the tough as nails NFC, I see them making leaps throughout the season, but finishing just short.

Probable Pythagorean Final Record: 7-9

21. Buffalo Bills—Falling

Record: 2-3

Pythagorean Record: 1.4-3.6

Point Differential: -58

I will acknowledge that part of the reason that the Bills have such a poor point differential (worse than the winless Cleveland Browns), is due to their two consecutive blowout defeats to the New England Patriots and San Francisco 49ers. I'll also acknowledge that those are two of the best teams in the NFL.

But explain opening day against the Jets? Explain how the Bills defense has been so terrible despite the money thrown into it. Wasn't this defensive unit built to stop the Patriots? Wasn't this team supposed to be good?

This team is the same old Buffalo Bills we have seen the last decade, only more expensive and more hyped up. Dare I say this team should clean house at the end of the year?

Projected Pythagorean Record: 4-11

20. Cincinnati Bengals—Falling

Record: 3-2

Pythagorean Record: 2.4-2.6

Point Differential: -4

Here are my issues with the Cincinnati Bengals; a very young and talented team with a ton of holes.

Let's start on offense, where they can only seem to beat bad defenses. Against two good defenses in Baltimore and in Miami, they combined for two touchdowns, yet they beat up on Cleveland, Jacksonville and Washington's bad defense.

Their defense however just doesn't perform. They're giving up 25.8 points and 348.2 yards per game. Not a very promising statistic.

They do have two games against the dregs of the AFC West coming up, and do have one more game against Cleveland this Sunday, and they do have the talent to steal some wins. But they're not going back to the postseason this year, as their defense just has too much work to do, and they need some semblance of a running game.

Projected Pythagorean Record: 8-8

19. Indianpolis Colts—Rising

Record: 2-2

Pythagorean Record: 1.6-2.4

Point Differential: -19

Now this team is rising fast. When I revisit these rankings, the Colts will likely still continue to rise. Now you will see a projected Pythagorean record at the bottom, but this Colts team will finish better than that record.

Let's take for instance the schedule that lies in front of them. They'll visit the Jets, then are home to host the Browns, before leaving to Tennessee. Another home game awaits them with Miami, followed by a trip to Jacksonville (who already beat the Colts but don't look like they can beat anyone right now), before traveling to Foxborough to play the Patriots.

What could Indianapolis' record be going into Brady vs. Luck? Try 5-4, possibly even 6-3. Then remember that after that Pats game they take on the Bills, Lions, Titans, Chiefs, and two games against a Texans team that might have everything wrapped up by that first game against the Colts.

This Colts team could conceivably finish anywhere between 9-7 and 11-5. In the AFC this means playoffs, and the likelihood of a Wild Card round featuring Peyton Manning vs. Andrew Luck. Now remember with the Pythagorean Records that there are cases of teams underachieving or overachieving their Pythagorean mark. If I were to choose any team to do so, it would be the Colts.

Projected Pythagorean Final Record: 6-10

18. Washington Redskins—Neutral

Record: 2-3

Pythagorean Record: 2.4-2.6

Point Differential: -7

This team is neither rising nor falling and is stuck in neutral for a variety of reasons.

The injury bug has completely decimated them, and with what we know about concussions, I don't think it would be a smart idea for them to rush Robert Griffin III back on to the field until he is truly ready (no, I wouldn't play him next week regardless of what he says).

Their defense has done a great job of causing turnovers, but gives up far too many points for even this offense to win—and that was when their offense was fully healthy.

We could mention their division being a slight problem, however you saw how I felt and what the numbers said about the Cowboys earlier, and the Eagles are a team that we'll dissect in a moment. But it should be noted that when the Redskins play any of those teams, records—whether real or Pythagorean—very rarely come into account.

This is an 8-8 team, one that will give every team on their schedule headaches, but still an 8-8 team.

Projected Pythagorean Record: 8-8

17. Miami Dolphins—Rising

Record: 2-3

Pythagorean Record: 2.5-2.5

Point Differential: 0

Here's another team similar to the Indianapolis Colts that could benefit from a weak AFC and a bad division. Unfortunately for the Dolphins, they don't get the weak AFC West (they got their AFC West opponent out of the way already by dispatching the Raiders in Week 2) and they only get the Titans and Jaguars once instead of twice like the Colts do.

But Miami does have to face three more NFC West teams (not an easy proposition), and has to deal with the New England Patriots twice in their final five games (unlike Houston, New England will likely be playing for a number two seed the first time around).

This team is slated to have a better Pythagorean record than the Colts, and does have a better defense. Miami could be a playoff team as they do have a defense that could compete with every team on their schedule (even the 49ers and Patriots), and an offense that much like the Colts is steadily improving from one week to the next.

The Jabar Gaffney signing could turn out to be a big one for this offense as it will free up Brian Hartline (the NFL's number one receiver in terms of yards) and Davone Bess. Miami's defense already had a great front seven, but has seen improvement in their secondary play as well.

Week 9 in Indianapolis could be the beginning of a great rivalry between Andrew Luck and Ryan Tannehill; who'd have ever thought I'd be saying that back in April?

Projected Pythagorean Final Record: 8-8

16. Green Bay Packers—Falling

Record: 2-3

Pythagorean Record: 2.5-2.5

Point Differential: +2

When was the last time you saw the Packers so low on a power rankings list? Why would I place them so low?

Simple, the Green Bay Packers are—wait for it—not that good.

Should we start with an under-performing offense? That would be a great place to start, as they haven't broken the 30-point barrier all season (they did so 11 times last season while breaking 40 six times). Their defense has been alright, but nothing special (which is fine when your offense is producing, but as you can see they aren't), and the closest thing they have to a running game in Cedric Benson could miss eight weeks with the ever-dreaded Lisfranc injury (and you're never the same after that).

Now factor in their division. They did beat the Bears earlier this season at home (thanks mainly to their defense), but the Packers still lag far behind not only the Bears but also the Vikings.

It's going to be a long winter in Green Bay, because the Packers aren't likely to see the postseason.

Projected Pythagorean Final Record: 8-8

15. St. Louis Rams—Rising

Record: 3-2

Pythagorean Record: 2.6-2.4

Point Differential: +2

Did you know the St. Louis Rams are 2-0 in their division already? The NFC West is one of the toughest in the NFL this year, so to me that's a stat to take very seriously.

The Rams of 2012 remind me a lot of most of Jeff Fisher's Titans teams: tough defense, an offense that gives you just enough to win, and a well-disciplined team that doesn't make careless mistakes. This team is a pain in the buttocks team that no contender wants to play down the stretch.

If they were in the AFC West they would win the division, but in the NFC, they're likely on the outside looking into the playoffs, but with a lot of hope for the future.

Projected Pythagorean Final Record: 8-8

14. Philadelphia Eagles—Falling

Record: 3-2

Pythagorean Record: 1.9-3.1

Point Differential: -19

I have to of course remind you that a team's Pythagorean Record isn't indicative of a team's real record. Sometimes teams play well above their Pythagorean Record, sometimes teams play below it.

The Eagles have played above it for the first five games of the season, but things are looking like they're about to trend downward. They've lost two out of their last three, and while this week they host a Lions team that isn't very good, the other side of their bye week looks like murder.

The alarming thing about the Eagles is their point differential: -19. I know that most of that can be attributed to that terrible loss to Arizona, but that Cardinals game also showed us a lot about this Eagles team—namely that they're like last season's Eagles team, but worse.

Projected Pythagorean Record: 6-10

13. Seattle Seahawks—Neutral

Record: 3-2

Pythagorean Record: 3.1-1.9

Point Differential: +16

Here's another neutral team, but is that such a bad thing in the case of these Seattle Seahawks? Their defense is just incredible as they're allowing only 14 points and 258.6 yards per game. They actually have the No. 1 defense in the NFL.

But their offense does leave a lot to be concerned about. Unlike Miami (a similar offensive team that is starting a rookie quarterback), Seattle hasn't really found a go-to receiver on their team for Russell Wilson. This does make Terrell Owens look worse, which I'm sure most people are all for, but it is a concern when it comes to competing with the San Francisco 49ers for the NFC West crown.

Seattle does have a great running game with Marshawn Lynch and a great home-field advantage. You might not always want to be stuck in neutral, but when you're on your way to a playoff berth like the Seahawks seem to be, I'm sure you're fine with it (as long as you win in the playoffs).

Projected Pythagorean Final Record: 10-6

12. Denver Broncos—Neutral

Record: 2-3

Pythagorean Record: 3.0-2.0

Point Differential: +21

Want to see something interesting? The Broncos and the Chargers are very, very close right now. So close (and so similar), that I'll explain it in the next slide.

Projected Pythagorean Final Record: 10-6

11. San Diego Chargers—Neutral

Record: 3-2

Pythagorean Record: 3.1-1.9

Point Differential: +22

Here's how similar the Chargers and Broncos are: their Pythagorean Records are down to one decimal point separating the two, and San Diego has one more point in the old point differential.

There's not much of a difference in either team's remaining schedule, and the two teams even have the same bye week, which is the week after this one (when they play each other).

But I have to ask who made the schedule, because these two teams should've played in the last week of the season because it's going to go down to the last week of the season between these two. Instead, however, either the Broncos are going to have to count on the Raiders to beat the Chargers, while the Chargers might have to rely on the Chiefs to beat the Broncos.

I know hindsight is 20/20, but that was a bad mistake. Chargers-Broncos was perfect for the last week of the season just from a marketing standpoint (Rivers vs. Manning; games which never disappoint), and while no one saw the Chiefs or Raiders playing this badly, you at least had to think that San Diego and Denver would be better than those two teams.

Sorry for getting off topic, my point here is the Chargers and Broncos are two very similar teams, but there are differences. I'll take Denver's offense over the Chargers offense, but I'd rather have the Chargers defense. Even then, the Chargers and Broncos offenses are close (but the Chargers defense is much better).

These two games will be big ones, as odds are the loser of these games will likely miss the playoffs.

Projected Pythagorean Record: 10-6

10. Pittsburgh Steelers—Rising

Record: 2-2

Pythagorean Record: 2.1-1.9

Point Differential: +4

I even think I have the Steelers ranked a wee bit high, and calculating their projected Pythagorean record had me in shock (you will see it at the bottom of the page like you have in all the rest of these), but the Steelers get a slight benefit of the doubt due to the fact that their schedule actually gets easier and for their first game of the season they were without Ryan Clark due to the game being played in Denver (Clark usually doesn't play in Denver due to the health risks of the high altitude to Clark, who has the sickle cell trait). 

But it should be mentioned that this team isn't the Steelers of a couple of years ago. Both the defense and offense rank exactly in the middle of the pack when it comes to points scored and points allowed respectively.

Their point differential is a measly +4, which isn't great by any means, and their offensive line can't seem to open up holes for their running game. As for Roethlisberger, he has actually been great, but his line hasn't protected him very well.

The Steelers will likely make the playoffs and will definitely do much better than their current projected Pythagorean record indicates, but a weak AFC and their schedule has as much to do with that as their talent.

Projected Pythagorean Final Record: 8-8

9. Arizona Cardinals—Falling

Record: 4-1

Pythagorean Record: 3.0-2.0

Point Differential: +16

No team has done a better job in the last two years of squeezing out close victories than the Arizona Cardinals. Some have asked when their luck will run out, while others claim that being that good isn't lucky at all.

It isn't, but that doesn't mean this team has an upward trajectory. Their last two games against Miami and St. Louis exposed most of Arizona's weaknesses. They can't protect the quarterback, which right there is a red flag too big to ignore, and a bad one to have when they still have one more game against the Seahawks and two against the 49ers.

Their division is also a rough one as we saw what the Rams could do to this team last Thursday Night. They can't run the ball, and their passing offense leaves much to be desired despite the presence of Larry Fitzgerald.

Now look at their upcoming schedule and you will see that their defense is going to have to do more than they can possibly handle. Maybe they can get another defensive effort similar to their game against the Eagles, but exactly how many games like that can you bank on?

Their projected Pythagorean record will continue to go down, as will their point differential. While +16 after five games is good, it's not extraordinary, and has the potential to be erased with just one bad game.

The bad game won't likely happen this week as they face the Bills, but two contests with the 49ers, and games against the Chicago Bears and Atlanta Falcons might be enough to bring it down a lot. Arizona is a nice team that is pretty good, but they don't have the fire-power to compete with those three NFC behemoths.

Projected Pythagorean Record: 10-6

8. New York Giants—Rising

Record: 3-2

Pythagorean Record: 3.4-1.6

Point Differential: +41

Sunday's Giants-49ers game in San Francisco is going to be a huge game. Of course I don't have to tell you that, I'm sure you already know.

For the Giants, it would be a nice victory to have and one that they could steal. Their point differential points to the Giants being a better team, while their offense is ranked second in the league.

The one problem the Giants do have is defense, and even then this is a unit that tends to get better as the season moves along. Despite the 0-2 division record, the Giants should still win their division if for no other reason than the fact that they're just that much better than every other team in the NFC East.

Their schedule doesn't do them any favors, but we all know that this Giants team will wind up losing one game they're supposed to dominate, then win four games they're supposed to lose.

Projected Pythagorean Final Record: 11-5

7. Minnesota Vikings—Rising

Record: 4-1

Pythagorean Record: 3.6-1.4

Point Differential: +41

"

I could see Vikings getting to 7-1 - and finishing 8-8.

— Skip Bayless (@RealSkipBayless) October 7, 2012"

No Skip, you are wrong. You are as wrong about the Vikings as you are about [insert favorite Skip Bayless target; LeBron, Russell Westbrook, Aaron Rodgers, Tim Tebow].The numbers prove you are wrong good sir, as this team, according to the Pythagorean Record, is exactly where they should be; and they're only getting better.

Currently the Vikings have the seventh-best defense in the NFL, and an offense that ranks 14th in points scored. On average they're holding their opponents to 15.8 points per game with a good pass defense and an even better run defense.

On offense Adrian Peterson looks like Adrian Peterson again and Christian Ponder has progressed by leaps and bounds compared to his first season in the league.

Their point differential also isn't one that belongs to a team that will "choke" down the stretch, as +41 is quite strong after five games.

Now the back end of Minnesota's schedule is a lot rougher than the front end, and you might see some regression there; but it would be crazy to think that this team could start 7-1 and finish 8-8.

Not with their projected Pythagorean Record being as strong as it is. Their real record won't be as high, but it will be strong enough to get them an invite into the postseason.

Projected Pythagorean Final Record: 12-4

6. Baltimore Ravens—Falling

Record: 4-1

Pythagorean Record: 3.6-1.4

Point Differential: +41

I say falling with caution because I usually don't like to react to when some quarterbacks have complete stinkers. With that being said, here are Joe Flacco's numbers on Sunday against Kansas City: 13-of-27 for 187 yards, no touchdowns and one interception.

Those numbers do well against one of the worst teams in the NFL (like the Chiefs), but Flacco obviously can't afford those numbers against the Patriots, Broncos, Chargers or just about any team on this list above number 20.

But that was Flacco's first real stinker of the year, as he has been outstanding in Baltimore's other four games. Baltimore's remaining schedule is a tough one, with two games against Pittsburgh along with a big road game in Week 7 against Houston. How well they do in those three games will tell us where this team really is.

Right now I have them as the third best team in the AFC, but if the Steelers start to pick it up, that could easily change.

Projected Pythagorean Record: 12-4

5. New England Patriots—Rising

Record: 3-2

Pythagorean Record: 3.6-1.4

Point Differential: +52

The Patriots started off slow at 1-2, but somewhat looked snakebit in both of their losses.

But their last two wins were impressive and showed that this team now has a running attack to compliment Brady, Gronkowski, Hernandez (when he's healthy again) and Welker.

They are the second-best team in the AFC right now, and have the best overall offense in the NFL.

As for their defense, they're not intimidating in any way, yet when a big turnover is needed, they get it.

This is actually New England's best team since 2007, and as the season progresses they will prove it. There won't be much competition from them in their division (their only likely loss might be their final game against the Dolphins, and even then that's only because the Patriots might have everything wrapped up while the Dolphins will be fighting to finish either 8-8 or 9-7), and the AFC itself is very weak.

The toughest teams remaining for the Patriots though are two out of our top four (Houston and San Francisco). The good news for the Pats is that those games come back-to-back, and will be in Foxborough.

Projected Pythagorean Record: 12-4

4. Atlanta Falcons—Rising

Record: 5-0

Pythagorean Record: 3.8-1.2

Point Differential: +55

Why are two teams with one loss ahead of an undefeated team?

Let's look at the numbers.

The Falcons do have a weaker Pythagorean Record, and trail the Chicago Bears by 23 in point differential.

Atlanta's defense is ranked 17th in total defense (well below the Bears and 49ers), while their offense is ranked 12th.

Right now I have them at four, yet they will continue to rise. Of the top three NFC teams, the Falcons do have the easiest remaining schedule and play in the easiest division (the closest NFC South team to Atlanta is at number 22).

Atlanta will likely claim home-field advantage and won't have to face the Bears or 49ers until the playoffs.

This team can only get better, and they will. It's likely that they will be the final remaining undefeated team, but I'm not quite ready to say that they're better than Chicago or San Francisco.

Projected Pythagorean Record: 12-4

3. Chicago Bears—Rising

Record: 4-1

Pythagorean Record: 4.3-0.7

Point Differential: +78

The Bears are coming off of two very impressive victories where their defense set the tone.

That's how Chicago is going to have to play the rest of the season—and even then that's not a guarantee because Jay Cutler is susceptible to a stinker (he already had one in Week 2).

But this team is a complete one. They can run the ball even without Matt Forte (the Michael Bush signing is one of the best of the offseason), and with Brandon Marshall they have a real threat in the air (Marshall has had a great effect on Devin Hester, who can now just burn corners that single-team him, with Marshall getting most of the attention).

I do have some reservations about Cutler, who is a few notches below Atlanta's Matt Ryan. But Chicago's defense will carry this team into the postseason, just not at the same record the Pythagorean Projection is expecting them to gain.

Projected Pythagorean Final Record: 14-2

2. Houston Texans—Falling

Record: 5-0

Pythagorean Record: (4.2-0.8)

Point Differential: +76

Why would I have an undefeated team as falling when they're obviously the best team in their conference?

Well when I say falling, I mean from No. 1 to No. 2. Barring a collapse, this will likely be the farthest that the Texans will fall.

They looked great in each of their games too, however their schedule to start the season wasn't the most challenging compared to the Patriots and Ravens.

They also came much closer than you think to losing to the Jets. They won't be able to play that way in their remaining tough games against New England, Minnesota, Baltimore and Chicago.

The Texans will likely get the top seed in the AFC, but I'm not as sure about it as I was a week ago.

Projected Pythagorean Final Record: 13-3

1. San Francisco 49ers—Rising

Record: 4-1

Pythagorean Record: 4.3-0.7

Point Differential: +81

Best point differential? Check. Best Pythagorean Record? Check (well, it's a tie with the Bears, just with a tougher schedule).

Home-field advantage? The 49ers have one of the best. As well as one of the best defenses in the NFL and an exciting offense where Alex Smith is playing like a No. 1 pick, while Colin Kaepernick is doing exactly what the Jets expected out of Tim Tebow.

This team is just too good. They play in the toughest division in the NFL, and yet will still win it going away.

San Francisco has only one loss, and it's to a good team on the road. Since then they've bounced back to beat the Jets (on the road) and Bills (at home) by a combined score of 79-3.

But they do have some big tests coming up. They have yet to play a division game (again, they play in the toughest division in the NFL), and have games coming up against the Giants and Bears at home and have to travel to New England on the road.

Yet, I also see the 49ers going 5-1 within their division and going 2-1 against that Giants-Bears-Patriots triumvirate. They'll probably finish even better than that.

Projected Pythagorean Final Record: 14-2

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