Green Bay Packers Mock Draft: First Round, Aaron Maybin

I am writing this article for both MVN and Bleacher Report because in both communities I took part in a mock draft for the Packers, who pick ninth in the first round. In both cases, I got my man: Aaron Maybin, DE, Penn State.

So why did I make this selection? There are a few reasons I will outline in more detail...

Because there was no option for trading the pick for an established lineman, nor to package picks to move up.

There are better players, both in talent and in terms of fitting the Packers needs, but that was not an option made available to me.

Nor could I trade down to increase value. For instance, in the Bleacher Report mock draft, no one took Matthew Stafford. This is ridiculous, since he is one of the top three talents in the draft, and plays the most important position in the game because it is hard to find.

Detroit desperately needs a franchise QB. Oakland has to have questions about JaMarcus Russell. Kansas City only has Matt Cassell—who has only had one good year and did so with the second most talented receiving corps in the NFL—for one year.

Seattle has an aging and more frequently injured Matt Hasselbeck...all of these teams should absolutely take Stafford if he is available, which he automatically is for Detroit.

If this were a real draft, I would have traded this pick to a team that was looking for a quarterback, getting an established defensive lineman for him. If nothing else, San Francisco (picking 10th) would have wanted Stafford, and I would have had no problems getting extra for the pick.

Because the Packers should be looking to fill immediate needs.

Even though they went just 6-10 in 2008, this team finished 13-3 two seasons ago. The only major changes to the roster from that season are the loss of two defensive tackles and the quarterback.

Since the guy stepping in at quarterback was productive taking over for a legend, there is reason to believe the Packers can be playing for now, not the future.

Perhaps no team was as affected by injuries as the Packers, and that is why they struggled. From the starters on defense alone, this team suffered the following players missing multiple games: Cullen Jenkins, Nick Barnett, Nick Collins, Al Harris, Ryan Pickett, and Atari Bigby. That's over half the defense and accounts for well over 30 total games missed.

Worse than that, it accounts for less than half of the total games missed on the roster when you add in offensive players and depth players on defense. Unless they expect the same problems (and the strength and conditioning coaches were all fired), they are built to win now.

Because the Packers need help on defense.

The offense finished the year in the top ten in the league despite numerous injuries on the offensive line. There is no need to even consider drafting players at any offensive position other than line, tight end, and fullback to fill needs in the near future.

You can see a more detailed analysis of each position on other articles on both sites, with each of the following links going to the Bleacher Report posting of the articles to make it easier: quarterbacks, running backs, offensive line, and receivers. But you don't pick a fullback on the first day, and there are no dynamic tight ends in this year's draft.

The only defensive players in this draft who I believe are clearly better than Maybin are LB Aaron Curry and DT B.J. Raji; in both drafts, they were already gone.

Because the biggest needs on defense are the biggest players.

The team is missing bodies on the line and at outside linebacker, where players have to get bigger in a 3-4 defense. This is all the more important in Green Bay and Chicago, where the playing surface gets slow in the winter and size dominates (a lesson Ron Wolf learned quickly).

Reports are that the Packers will be relying on Aaron Kampman, the Pro Bowl defensive end who has not played the position since college, at one of the outside linebacker positions. Right now, the other spot would be projected to be held by Brady Poppinga.

Poppinga has played defensive end at times in passing situations, but is not big enough (6'3", 247 lbs.) to handle those responsibilities in running situations. While OLBs in a 3-4 do not have to be as big as defensive ends in a 4-3, they should be over 250 lbs.

Moreover, Poppinga has not even been the Packers least impressive starting linebacker. The team is best served having him back up the corps, especially when this unit is so key to the success of the new defense being implemented.

To me, you take the best available player at a position you need. Because there is no one better at a defensive line or OLB position, Maybin is the man.

That being said, there are a number of players who could be considered. I believe OT, DT, DE, and OLB to be positions of need worthy of a top ten pick. Scouts, Inc., has Maybin listed as their 11th best player, so below are some of those ranked higher who were available to me in at least one of the mock drafts and reasons I did not pick them.

(Note: I believe Eugene Monroe was taken on both drafts, because a Bleacher Report writer who shall remain nameless to save any embarrassment or ridicule so popular with flamers took someone named Eugene Moore (no position or school affiliation was listed).

I know of no such player and while such a person may exist, there is no one of that name listed among Scouts, Inc.'s top 32 players.

However, while I think he is the best tackle in the draft, the reasons given for Andre Smith would apply to Monroe had he even been available. He might be better than the others, but not by enough to nullify the reasons given there.)

1. Jason Smith, OT, Baylor (available only on Bleacher Report): I see Smith as a great player, but he is certainly not going to be an upgrade in 2009 over Mark Tauscher, and as I have said, the goal should be someone who helps immediately. Thus, the Packers should re-sign Tauscher, who is only 31 and should have a few good years left in him. Ted Thompson claims the only reason he does not spend money in free agency is he wants that room to re-sign his own guys; the fact that the Packers have a franchise and transition tag left should make it that much easier.
2. Andre Smith, OT, Alabama (available only on MVN): I would not take this knucklehead if Tauscher signed elsewhere and all the other tackles were gone. In fact, the fact that he was picked, Matthew Stafford was not, and the misspelling of two players ahead of me at Bleacher Report frankly has me convinced that my colleagues on MVN know what they are doing better. Andre Smith is the guy who got himself suspended for the most important game of his college career, and may have cost Alabama their bowl game against Utah. He also could not decide whether he wanted to work out at the combine, was late, and then decided to disappear on his interview. No one wants someone they cannot depend on, especially when it is on the line. With two tackles a hair in front of him, a good bowl game and combine could have moved him to a top four pick.
3. Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State (available only on Bleacher Report): Scouts, Inc., ranks Jenkins 10th, one spot ahead of Maybin, and Mel Kiper has rather famously projected the Packers would pick him. However, Green Bay has two 2008 Pro Bowl cornerbacks returning for 2009, and while they are no spring chickens at 32 and 34, they are not going to drop off from elite to mediocre in one season, and as I have made clear, the Packers need to get a player this high who can help right now. Moreover, Green Bay is not even in need of a nickel back, as Tramon Williams filled in quite nicely during Al Harris' injury, and at 25 will only get better. Finally, Pat Lee was drafted in the second round last season to add depth to the backfield and should be returning from injury.

Since the only other players ranked higher were WR Michael Crabtree and QBs Matt Sanchez and Stafford, positions that are not only set for 2009 but well beyond, this really came down to Brian Orakpo vs. Maybin.

Both players were defensive ends in college but will be too small to play that position, especially in a 3-4. They are both athletic and seem to be the best fit for either a pass-rushing only DE in a 4-3 or OLB in a 3-4.

While the Big 12 is a clearly superior conference to the Big Ten (11), that is primarily for positions of athleticism, not size. Penn State also handled Ohio State's offense in the conference season better than Texas did in their bowl game, so I am not inclined to put much merit on the conference superiority.

The most specific grading I saw for the players was compiled by a team of analysts on ESPN.com. There was only one category he graded higher than Maybin (height-weight-speed—he is five pounds heavier), but six in which Maybin graded higher (durability, character, agility/quickness, instincts, pass rushing, run stopping). They were equal in the other three categories.

The most telling of these is durability: Maybin missed no games in two years, while Orakpo missed four due to a sprained knee; we do not need another Justin Harrell. The fact that he was only available on MVN and the writers making the selections there had already given reason to be more confident in their choices simply confirmed my preference all the more.