What Went Right, Wrong for All 30 MLB Teams in the Regular Season
Before the season and again at the All-Star Break, I predicted the final records for all 30 major league teams.
It's been an interesting season, to say the least. Six of 10 playoff teams were not in the playoffs last year, including four from the National League, the Orioles (who haven't been in the postseason since 1997) and the Nationals (who haven't been there since 1981 as the Montreal Expos).
Some teams did play to expectations, but more did not, and those were the most interesting teams in 2012.
Here is what went right and what went wrong for all 30 teams.
Arizona Diamondbacks
1 of 30Predicted Win/Loss Record: 94-68
Actual Win/Loss Record: 81-81
What Went Wrong for the Arizona Diamondbacks
After winning the NL West in 2011, the Diamondbacks had high expectations coming in to 2012 that they did not live up to.
What went wrong: Almost without exception, no one on the team played as well as they did last year.
Take Justin Upton. In 2011, he hit .289 with 31 home runs and a .898 OPS. In 2012, .280 with 17 homers and a .785 OPS.
How about Ian Kennedy? In 2011, 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.086 WHIP. In 2012, 15-12, 4.02 ERA and a 1.301 WHIP (also a league-leading 14 hit batsmen, which means nothing but is an interesting statistic).
They were hit by injuries, too, with Daniel Hudson, Willie Bloomquist, Ryan Roberts and Chris Young each missing significant time.
One bright spot for Arizona was Wade Miley, who has a chance to win the Rookie of the Year award with a 16-11 record and a 3.33 ERA in almost 200 innings.
Atlanta Braves
2 of 30Predicted Win/Loss Record: 84-78
Actual Win/Loss Record: 94-68
What Went Right for the Atlanta Braves
Part of the reason I picked the Braves to finish just over .500 was that I thought the NL East would be a hotly contested division. With the Phillies' collapse, Marlins' disappointment and Mets' disastrous second half, it wasn't.
But you have to give credit to Freddy Gonzalez's team. Unlike the Red Sox, who followed up their September collapse with a bad season, the Braves bounced back and are in the postseason.
Jason Heyward finally took a big step forward, hitting 27 home runs, Chipper Jones put together a solid final season, and Michael Bourn and Martin Prado were solid outfielders.
Although the starting pitching has been good but not great, Kris Medlen has put together one of the best second halves we've ever seen (the team has won 23 straight games in which he's started).
Closer Craig Kimbrel has posted video game numbers, striking out 116 and walking just 14 in in 62.2 innings with 42 saves.
The Braves are an all-around team who could be ready for a deep October run.
Baltimore Orioles
3 of 30Predicted Win/Loss Record: 65-97
Actual Win/Loss Record: 93-69
What Went Right for the Baltimore Orioles
Boy, was I (and most everybody) wrong about the Orioles.
The O's will be playing playing in the playoffs for the first time since 1997, due in large part to unexpectedly solid pitching, both in the rotation and in the bullpen.
Rookie Wei-Yin Chen, brought in from Japan, has given the O's a staff-leading 192.2 innings with a 4.02 ERA, while Jason Hammel, acquired with Matt Lindstrom in a winter trade for Jeremy Guthrie, is 8-6 with a 3.43 ERA in an injury-shortened season. Miguel Gonzalez and Chris Tillman have also provided valuable innings.
And you can't forget closer Jim Johnson, who had 51 saves (due in large part to the team's incredible 29-9 record in one-run games), or the rest of their bullpen that has five pitchers who have thrown at least 50 innings and have ERAs under 3.
The offense has pitched in, too. Adam Jones was the offensive MVP with 32 home runs, but Chris Davis added 33, Mark Reynolds and Matt Wieters 33 each, and J.J. Hardy with 22. Manny Machado has been solid at third base since his August call-up, too.
How far can the Orioles go? We'll find out.
Boston Red Sox
4 of 30Predicted Win/Loss Record: 87-75
Actual Win/Loss Record: 69-93
What Went Wrong for the Boston Red Sox
As good and surprising as the Orioles have been, the Red Sox have been equally, if not more, disappointing. They lost more than 90 games for the first time since 1966.
To be fair, their pitching struggles were not completely unexpected. Josh Beckett's velocity had gone down over the last couple of years and Daniel Bard's transition to the rotation was no sure thing. But Jon Lester had a terrible year (9-14 with a 4.82 ERA) and the rest of the Sox's starters were not much better.
But the offense was really hit with the injury bug. Think about this: The most games played by any Red Sox player this year was just 141, by Dustin Pedroia.
Jacoby Ellsbury played 74 and David Ortiz 90. The team was already out of contention, but the trade of Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford (who was decent when on the field) made the lineup even worse.
And it didn't help that manager Bobby Valentine almost immediately lost the clubhouse by criticizing Kevin Youkilis early in the season.
The Red Sox started the rebuilding process in July by trading Gonzalez, Crawford and Josh Beckett, and expect more changes in Beantown this winter.
Chicago Cubs
5 of 30Predicted Win/Loss Record: 74-88
Actual Win/Loss Record: 61-101
What Went Wrong for the Chicago Cubs
Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer knew they had a bad team, so they embraced it. During 2012, they traded Geovany Soto, Paul Maholm and Ryan Dempster, and played youngsters often to see what they have for the future.
There's no use in detailing the bad on the Cubs, since we all knew they would be one of the worst teams in baseball this year. So here's what was good for the Cubs this year:
- Anthony Rizzo, the top prospect acquired from the Padres last winter, who came up midseason and hit .285 with 15 homers and a .805 OPS in 87 games
- Alfonso Soriano's 32 home runs and 108 RBI. He won't be a part of the Cubs' future, but with two years and $36 million left on his contract, the Cubs could try to trade him a for a prospect or two this offseason or during next season
- Starlin Castro, who, despite clubhouse problems, hit .283 and stole 25 bases
- Jeff Samardzjia, who adjusted well to the starting rotation with a 3.81 ERA and 180 strikeouts in 174.2 innings before being shut down in September
Let's not sugarcoat it: The Cubs were bad in 2012. Really bad. But it would be shocking if Theo Epstein didn't turn them around, and there was a lot on the 2012 team that should make Cubs' fans look forward to the future.
Chicago White Sox
6 of 30Predicted Win/Loss Record: 75-87
Actual Win/Loss Record: 85-77
What Went Right for the Chicago White Sox
Even though the White Sox spent 126 days this season in first place, they went 14-22 to finish the season and ended up losing the AL Central title.
But the season has to be considered a success, given that they seemed to be on the verge of going into an all-out rebuilding process before the season.
Adam Dunn had to be MLB's Comeback Player of the Year, hitting 41 home runs.
But he wasn't the only player hitting home runs on the South Side. Five White Sox hit 20 or more home runs: Dunn, A.J. Pierzynski (27), Paul Konerko (26), Alex Rios (25) and Dayan Viciedo (25).
Chris Sale was the ace of the rotation, moving from the bullpen to post an impressive 17-8 record with a 3.05 ERA and as many strikeouts as innings pitched (192). But we can't forget about Jake Peavy, who bounced back from not making over 20 starts in a season since 2008 to make 32 in 2012 with a 3.37 ERA.
Cincinnati Reds
7 of 30Predicted Win/Loss Record: 85-77
Actual Record: 97-65
What Went Right for the Cincinnati Reds
The pitching. Led by Johnny Cueto, the Reds' starting rotation stayed remarkably healthy (all five starters made at least 30 starts) and effective (four out of five had ERAs under 4).
Plus, the bullpen had six solid pitchers even without Ryan Madson, who was injured in spring training and missed the whole season: Aroldis Chapman (122 strikeouts in 71.2 innings and 38 saves), Sean Marshall (2.51 ERA, 74 strikeouts in 61 innings), Jose Arredondo (2.95 ERA in 61 innings), Sam LeCure (3.14 ERA in 57.1 innings), Logan Ondrusek (3.46 ERA in 54.2 innings) and Alfredo Simon (2.66 ERA in 61 innings). Plus, midseason pickup Jonathan Broxton has provided 22.1 solid innings with a 2.81 ERA.
The offense, as always, was led by Joey Votto and his .337 average. But don't forget Jay Bruce's 34 home runs, Ryan Ludwick's 26 or rookie Todd Frazier's 19 home runs and .829 OPS in 128 games.
If this were a playoff predictions article, I'd probably the Reds to represent the National League in the World Series.
Cleveland Indians
8 of 30Predicted Win/Loss Record: 75-87
Actual Win/Loss Record: 68-94
What Went Wrong for the Cleveland Indians
Another disappointing season has already cost Manny Acta his job, although I'm not sure anybody could have done better with a team of this talent.
Sure, seven hitters had double-digit home runs, but none of them hit 20 and only one hitter (Shin-Soo Choo) had an OPS over .800.
Travis Hafner had another injury-plagued season, Grady Sizemore didn't play and it's hard to even pick an offensive MVP because they were all just so average.
And I wish I could say the pitching was average.
The lowest ERA for an Indians' starter was by 24-year-old Zach McAllister, with a 4.24 mark in just 22 starts.
Justin Masterson was 11-15 with a 4.93 ERA, Ubaldo Jimenez at 9-17 with a 5.40 ERA is a disaster and Derek Lowe was released with a 5.52 ERA.
The trio of Chris Perez, Vinnie Pestano and Joe Smith in the bullpen was good, but I doubt Tribe fans are taking any solace in that.
On the bright side, they didn't come in last place.
Colorado Rockies
9 of 30Predicted Win/Loss Record: 83-79
Actual Win/Loss Record: 64-98
What Went Wrong for the Colorado Rockies
Oh boy were the Rockies bad this year. And it all came down to starting pitching.
This is amazing: Nine pitchers started at least 10 games for the Rockies this year. Only two (Jhoulys Chacin and Drew Pomeranz) had an ERA under 5.00. Two had ERAs over 6.00. The pitching was so bad that they went to a four-man rotation because they didn't want to have a fifth starter anymore.
Troy Tulowitzki missed almost half the season, but the two bright spots on the Colorado offense were Carlos Gonzalez (.303, 22 HR, 85 RBI, 20 SB) and Dexter Fowler (.300, 13 HR, 11 3B, 12 SB).
But there aren't enough words to explain how bad the starting pitching was in 2012.
Detroit Tigers
10 of 30Predicted Win/Loss Record: 96-66
Actual Win/Loss Record: 88-74
What Went Wrong for the Detroit Tigers
The Tigers did not run away with the AL Central like most thought they would, but they are back in the playoffs for the second year in a row, so it's hard to say this season wasn't a success.
But why didn't they run away with the division?
The starting pitching (outside of Justin Verlander) didn't pitch up to expectations for most of the season, but Doug Fister, Anibal Sanchez and Max Scherzer have come on strong and give the Tigers a dangerous rotation for the postseason.
Miguel Cabrera has enjoyed hitting in front of Prince Fielder, winning the first Triple Crown in 45 years hitting .330 with 44 home runs and 139 RBI. And Fielder didn't mind hitting behind Cabrera, seeing his home run total hit but still hitting 30 with a .313 average and 108 RBI.
It doesn't matter how they got there; the Tigers will be a tough out in the playoffs.
Houston Astros
11 of 30Predicted Win/Loss Record: 56-106
Actual Win/Loss Record: 55-107
What Went Wrong for the Houston Astros
Nothing really went wrong for the Astros in 2012; they are what they are.
They came into the season with the worst roster in baseball and then traded Carlos Lee, Wandy Rodriguez, Brett Myers and J.A. Happ, leaving themselves with a roster of players that even the most die-hard of fans did not recognize.
One bright spot that Houston will carry over to the American League is 22-year-old Jose Altuve, who hit .290 with seven home runs and 33 stolen bases.
The Astros are building for the future, but it's still a long way away.
Kansas City Royals
12 of 30Predicted Win/Loss Record: 81-81
Actual Win/Loss Record: 72-90
What Went Wrong for the Kansas City Royals
The Royals are getting closer and closer to contention, but the pitching just isn't there yet.
Jeremy Guthrie was acquired from Colorado midseason and pitched to a 3.16 ERA in 14 starts, and 28-year-old Luis Mendoza had a 4.23 ERA in 166 innings, but otherwise the starting pitching was terrible.
Greg Holland stepped into the closer's role after Joakim Soria missed the season and the club dealt Jonathan Broxton and had 16 saves, but Royals' fans know that a good close doesn't fix a pitching staff.
The offense also missed last year's Eric Hosmer. After hitting .293 with 19 home runs in 128 games, Hosmer went down to .232 with 14 home runs and a .663 OPS this year. Hosmer was supposed to be the Royals' offensive leader and he was anything but.
They also left an offensive option in the minors in Wil Myers, who clubbed 37 home runs in Double-A and Triple-A while the man he should have replaced, Jeff Francoeur, hit just .235 with a .287 on-base percentage and 16 home runs.
Kansas City's offense is good enough to compete, but the pitching staff is still a long way away.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
13 of 30Predicted Win/Loss Record: 93-69
Actual Win/Loss Record: 89-73
What Went Wrong for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Two things went wrong for the Angels:
First, they dug themselves into too big a hole in the American League at the beginning of the season, starting 7-15 (they went 82-58 the rest of the season).
Second, the starting pitching wasn't as good as it was supposed to be. Sure, Jered Weaver may win the Cy Young (20-5, 2.81) and Zack Greinke pitched well after the Angels acquired him midseason (6-2, 3.53), but C.J. Wilson was average (13-10, 3.83), Dan Haren was average (12-13, 4.33) and Ervin Santana was terrible (9-13, 5.16).
Albert Pujols had a good first year in LA, hitting 30 home runs even though his first didn't come until May 6.
And then there was Mike Trout, who came up in late May at 20 years old and still became the first player in history to hit 30 home runs, steal 45 bases and score 125 runs.
The Angels came up just short of the playoffs, but if they can rebuild the starting rotation for 2013, they will contend next year.
Los Angeles Dodgers
14 of 30Predicted Win/Loss Record: 81-81
Actual Win/Loss Record: 86-76
What Went Right for the Los Angeles Dodgers
It was a good year for the Dodgers. They replaced their bankrupt owner with Magic Johnson, they exceeded expectations even though they did not make the playoffs and they acquired three hitters who will be major parts of their future in Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and Hanley Ramirez.
They have the pieces in place for the future when you add in Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Clayton Kershaw and Kenley Jansen.
And they're going to be active in free agency this winter. Look out for the Dodgers in 2013.
Miami Marlins
15 of 30Predicted Win/Loss Record: 87-75
Actual Win/Loss Record: 69-93
What Went Wrong for the Miami Marlins
Was there a bigger disappointment this year than the Marlins? Coming into the season with a new name, new stadium and new players, the Fish were supposed to contend. Instead, they came in last place and will probably reduce payroll next year.
Hanley Ramirez and his bad attitude were traded, Jose Reyes and Mark Beuhrle had good but not great seasons and Heath Bell was a disaster. So was manager Ozzie Guillen.
There's not much more to say about them. The Marlins were a huge disappointment and they're now saddled with some contract they probably wish they didn't have.
Milwaukee Brewers
16 of 30Predicted Win/Loss Record: 85-77
Actual Win/Loss Record: 83-79
What Went Wrong for the Milwaukee Brewers
On August 19, the Brewers were 54-66. They ended with a 29-13 run to complete a season that didn't bring Milwaukee to the playoffs but that was respectable.
Ryan Braun had an MVP-caliber year with a .319 average, 41 homers and 112 RBI, but he didn't have enough offensive help around him with the losses of Prince Fielder to free agency and Jonathan Lucroy, Mat Gamel and Alex Gonzalez to injuries.
The starting pitching was good, but the bullpen killed the Brewers. John Axford and Francisco Rodriguez had rough years and blew a lot of wins for Zack Greinke (before he was traded), Yovani Gallardo and Shaun Marcum.
The Brewers are definitely contenders, but do they have the money to spend to get to the level of the Nationals and Reds?
Minnesota Twins
17 of 30Predicted Win/Loss Record: 75-87
Actual Win/Loss Record: 66-96
What Went Wrong for the Minnesota Twins
Like so many other teams struggling to compete, the Twins just don't have enough pitching.
The offense was average, led by Joe Mauer and his .319 average and Josh Willingham, who exploded for 35 home runs.
But Scott Diamond and his 12-9 record with a 3.54 ERA was really all the rotation can brag about. The Twins had eight pitchers make double-digit starts this year, which is not usually a remedy for success.
The Twins won't be able to finish ahead of a lineup like the Tigers' until they have the arms to shut teams down, which unfortunately they may not have for a while.
New York Mets
18 of 30Predicted Win/Loss Record: 68-94
Actual Win/Loss Record: 74-88
What Went Right for the New York Mets
The Mets exceeded my expectations this year, but with the dropoff they had in the second half, fans have to be more disappointed than excited about 2012.
Still, though, I don't know many fans who expected the team to be .500 as late as July 21.
David Wright had a great year (.306, 21 HR, 93 RBI), Ike Davis rebounded from a slow start to belt 32 home runs, and R.A. Dickey became the first Met to win 20 games since Dwight Gooden and may win the Cy Young Award.
The franchise also got its first no-hitter on June 1, too.
Late in the season during the Mets' annual collapse, fans caught a glimpse of the future in Matt Harvey, who made 10 starts with a 2.73 ERA and 70 strikeouts in 59.1 innings.
So, the Mets didn't finish as strong as they started, but they have pieces to look forward to in the future and if ownership spends on free agents, it might not be much longer before there's a contender in Flushing once again.
New York Yankees
19 of 30Predicted Win/Loss Record: 96-66
Actual Win/Loss Record: 95-67
What Went Wrong for the New York Yankees
The Yankees had a great season and are the top seed in the American League, but the race was certainly closer than they had hoped when the team had a 10-game lead on July 18.
Injuries plagued the team all season, as Mariano Rivera was lost early in the season and Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Andy Pettitte and Brett Gardner all missed significant amounts of time.
They led the majors in home runs but struggled with runners in scoring position, hitting just .256 over the course of the season.
But they go into playoffs with as good a chance as any to win it all, and that's what the fans expect. If the Yankees win their 28th championship, the season will be a success; if they don't, the season was a failure no matter how many games they won or how deep they make it in the playoffs.
Oakland Athletics
20 of 30Predicted Win/Loss Record: 59-103
Actual Win/Loss Record: 94-68
What Went Right for the Oakland Athletics
The Athletics were only in first place for one day this season, but it was on the only day that counted: the last day of the season.
The A's completed an incredible comeback to win the AL West from down 13 games on June 30 and down five games with nine to play. Who saw it coming? Certainly not me.
Billy Beane showed once again that he is a revolutionary baseball mind, building a team around raw power and pitching depth with incredible success.
The A's had the 28th-best batting average in baseball but hit the seventh-most home runs, led by Cuban rookie Yoenis Cespedis (23 HR) and offseason acquisition Josh Reddick (32 HR).
The most revolutionary strategy they employed, though, was with their starting pitching. The Athletics started 10 pitchers this year, not completely due to injuries but rather by rotating pitchers in and out of the bullpen. This had the effect of keeping arms fresh, especially young arms (the A's got over 50 wins from rookies this year, the most in baseball history). Only three pitchers started over 20 games for them this year.
Buck Showalter may win Manager of the Year in the American League, but Bob Melvin deserves serious consideration after taking a laughing stock of a team to a division championship.
Philadelphia Phillies
21 of 30Predicted Win/Loss Record: 91-71
Actual Win/Loss Record: 81-81
What Went Wrong for the Philadelphia Phillies
I expected the Phillies to take a step back this year because their offense would undoubtedly take a step back without Ryan Howard and Chase Utley to start the season, but not this much of a regression.
Even when they finally returned, they did not hit well. Howard played in 71 games and hit just .219 with 14 home runs, while Utley got into 83 contests and hit only 11 home runs. Shane Victorino did not play well before being traded to the Dodgers, either, hitting .269 with nine homers.
The pitching wasn't the same in 2012, either. Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee were great (even though Lee only got six wins, that was more of a run support problem; he had a 3.16 ERA), but Roy Halladay was hurt and went 11-8 with a 4.49 ERA and the rest of the rotation was merely average.
The Phillies have enough pieces to contend if Howard and Utley return to form, but the team will be hamstrung in free agency if ownership is not willing to pay a luxury tax, already having Howard, Utley, Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Jimmy Rollins and Jonathan Papelbon on the books for over $120 million in 2013.
Pittsburgh Pirates
22 of 30Predicted Win/Loss Record: 74-88
Actual Win/Loss Record: 79-83
What Went Right for the Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates are staying in contention for longer and longer every year, but they're not there yet and in 2012 they had their 20th straight losing season. They were over .500 as late as September 18 and stumbled to a 79-83 finish.
The biggest difference-makers were two solid starting pitchers in A.J. Burnett and James McDonald. Burnett went 16-10 with a 3.51 ERA while McDonald was 12-8 with a 4.21 ERA (he was 10-5 with a 3.38 at the end of July but got knocked around in August and September).
Offensively, Pedro Alvarez took a big step forward by hitting 30 home runs but the team's MVP was Andrew McCutchen. He hit .327 with 31 homers, 96 RBI and 20 steals, putting him right in the middle of the league's MVP debate as well.
The Pirates may need to wait until their elite pitching prospects come to the majors before they can contend, but 2012 was a step forward for the franchise.
San Diego Padres
23 of 30Predicted Win/Loss Record: 72-90
Actual Win/Loss Record: 76-86
What Went Right for the San Diego Padres
The Padres won four more games than I predicted they would, which is probably in large part because the division was weaker than expected (particularly the Diamondbacks and Rockies). But even though they finished below .500, they're closer to contending than most would think.
The offense has some good pieces to build around, particularly Chase Headley, who should be an MVP contender but will not be because he is not well-known, nor did the Padres make the playoffs. But he hit 31 home runs and drove in 115 runs on a team where the next closest player to him hit 16 homers (Carlos Quentin) and drove in 62 (Yonder Alonso).
Add Alonso, Quentin and Cameron Maybin to Headley as the core of the lineup, as well as the possibility that the Padres will move in the fences at Petco Park, and the offense is not as bad as it once was.
The pitching is not far away, either. The rotation needs to add a starter or two, but Andrew Cashner, Edinson Volquez and Clayton Richard are young and solid, and the bullpen is in place with Huston Street and Luke Gregorson.
With new ownership, the team may have some money to spend. If they can add a bat or two and some starting pitching depth, the Padres could compete in 2013.
San Francisco Giants
24 of 30Predicted Win/Loss Record: 86-76
Actual Win/Loss Record: 94-68
What Went Right for the San Francisco Giants
My concern about the Giants going in to 2012 was their offense, but San Francisco scored the 12th-most runs in baseball.
Buster Posey returned from last year's leg injury and will probably win the National League MVP, hitting .336 with 24 home runs and 103 RBI. He was supported for most of the year by Melky Cabrera before his PED suspension, but Marco Scutaro was acquired around the time of the suspension and hit .362 in 61 games for the Giants.
Pitching has not been an issue for the Giants, despite Tim Lincecum losing his mojo (10-15, 5.18 ERA). Matt Cain (16-5, 2.79) is the new ace of the staff and Madison Bumgarner (16-11, 3.37) and Ryan Vogelsong (14-9, 3.37) make for an excellent postseason rotation. Even Barry Zito joined in on the success (15-8, 4.15).
With San Francisco's pitching, they're a top contender to win it all this year, but its offense is what made the difference from 2011's second-place finish to 2012's division title.
Seattle Mariners
25 of 30Predicted Win/Loss Record: 68-94
Actual Win/Loss Record: 75-87
What Went Right for the Seattle Mariners
Seattle's pitching is the only reason they won 75 games this year; the offense certainly had nothing to do with it.
The Mariners have a nice rotation and bullpen beyond Felix Hernandez (13-9, 3.06 ERA), including Jason Vargas (14-11, 3.85 ERA), Hisashi Iwakuma (9-5, 3.16 ERA) and Tom Wilhelmsen (29 saves, 2.50 ERA).
But the offense was among baseball's worst, ranking 27th in runs, 30th in batting average and 30th in OPS.
Dustin Ackley, who is supposed to be one of their future stars, continues to struggle at the plate, as he hit just .226 with a .622 OPS and 12 home runs. Jesus Montero, acquired from the Yankees for Michael Pineda, has hit for power (he hit 16 home runs) but will need to improve his plate discipline (a .298 on-base percentage doesn't cut it).
The Mariners are moving in the fences at Safeco Field next year, which will help the offense, but the lineup needs to improve before the M's take a step forward.
St. Louis Cardinals
26 of 30Predicted Win/Loss Record: 87-75
Actual Win/Loss Record: 88-74
What Went Right for the St. Louis Cardinals
This is the closest I came to predicting a team's record correctly, so I'll pat myself on the back for this one.
The offense had the task of replacing Albert Pujols' production (which is almost impossible to do), but the players stepped up and actually scored three more runs than the 2011 world champion Cardinals (765 to 762).
Their major acquisition, Carlos Beltran, hit 32 home runs and Allen Craig, filling in for Lance Berkman (who only played in 32) games added 22 and an .876 OPS. Yadier Molina (.315, 22 HR, 76 RBI) and Matt Holliday (.295, 27 HR, 102 RBI) were the offensive MVPs.
The team's pitching stepped up in a big way, too, having to deal with missing Chris Carpenter for most of the year with a shoulder injury and with Adam Wainwright returning from Tommy John surgery.
Wainwright improved as the season went on, finishing 14-13 with a 3.94 ERA, but Kyle Lohse established himself with a 16-3 record and a 2.86 ERA. Lance Lynn contributed, as well, going 18-7 with a 3.78 ERA and Jaime Garcia was 7-7 with a 3.92. Even Carpenter returned for three starts in September and could play a role in another Cardinals' championship.
Mike Matheny's squad plays in Atlanta today in the one-game Wild Card playoff, so their season could end abruptly, but if they make it to the Division Series, we all know what the Cardinals are capable of in October.
Tampa Bay Rays
27 of 30Predicted Win/Loss Record: 92-70
Actual Win/Loss Record: 90-72
What Went Wrong for the Tampa Bay Rays
Evan Longoria's injury. That's it. Longoria missing over half the season is the main difference between my prediction and the Rays' record, as well as the reason that the Rays will be watching the postseason instead of playing in it.
Longo is the Rays' only elite hitter and even in 74 games he was able to hit 17 home runs. Ben Zobrist (.270, 20 HR, 74 RBI) had a nice year, but no other Rays' regular had an OPS over .800.
The Rays stayed in the race until the last week of the season because of their starting pitching, which had a 3.34 ERA, the lowest in baseball, and the staff's overall 3.19 ERA was also baseball's best.
David Price may win the Cy Young (20-5, 2.56 ERA), and James Shields (15-10, 3.52), Matt Moore (11-11, 3.81), Alex Cobb (11-9, 4.03) and Jeremy Hellickson (10-11, 3.10) were all solid too.
But they weren't enough to overcome a weak offense that missed Evan Longoria in the worst way. In fact, it could be argued that Evan Longoria should be the MVP of the American League over Miguel Cabrera or Mike Trout, since his being off the field is probably the reason the Rays missed the playoffs.
Texas Rangers
28 of 30Predicted Win/Loss Record: 95-67
Actual Win/Loss Record: 93-69
What Went Wrong for the Texas Rangers
Last year, we had the Red Sox and Braves. This year, we have the Texas Rangers.
The Rangers are still in the playoffs as a Wild Card team, but they lost a five-game lead with nine to play after leading the AL West for 178 days and will play a do-or-die game against the Orioles just to get into a best-of-five series.
The Rangers had a great season and still have a shot to win the World Series, despite the collapse.
Josh Hamilton had an MVP-type year, hitting 43 home runs with a .930 OPS, as did Adrian Beltre with his .321 average, 36 home runs and stellar defensive play.
Matt Harrison emerged as the team's best pitcher, going 18-11 with a 3.29 ERA. Yu Darvish's first year in the United States was a success. He went 16-9 with a 3.90 ERA and struck out 221 in 191.1 innings.
The Rangers are still one of baseball's best teams, but they're one loss away from going home early. They had a great season, and yet anything short of making it to the World Series after two straight pennants has to be considered a failure, especially after their collapse over the last nine games.
Toronto Blue Jays
29 of 30Predicted Win/Loss Record: 84-78
Actual Win/Loss Record: 73-89
What Went Wrong for the Toronto Blue Jays
Injuries, plain and simple. The Blue Jays were killed by the injury bug this year, losing their best hitter (Jose Bautista) for almost half the season and three starting pitchers (Brandon Morrow, Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutschison) to significant injuries.
Those injuries, coupled with Ricky Romero's steep decline (9-14, 5.77 ERA), made it impossible for the Jays to contend in baseball's toughest division.
One breakout start in Toronto was Edwin Encarnacion, who hit 42 home runs and drove in 110 with a .941 OPS.
For a team to compete in the AL East, a lot has to go right. This year, it didn't for the Blue Jays.
Washington Nationals
30 of 30Predicted Win/Loss Record: 82-80
Actual Win/Loss Record: 98-64
What Went Right for the Washington Nationals
Even those who thought the Nationals would go to the playoffs this year probably didn't think they would do this well, finishing with the best record in baseball. The pitching is what went right for the Nats.
The Nationals had the second-best ERA in the game this year due in large part to stellar starting pitching. The most famous pitcher on the staff, Stephen Strasburg, went 15-6 with a 3.16 ERA and 197 strikeouts in 159.1 innings before being shut down in September.
But the rest of the staff was great as well. The Gio Gonzalez trade worked out well for the team, as he went 21-8 with a 2.89 ERA in his first year in Washington. Jordan Zimmerman posted a 2.94 ERA, Ross Detwiler a 3.40 and Edwin Jackson filled out the staff with a 4.03 ERA in almost 190 innings.
Bryce Harper gave the offense a kick when he was called up in April. He hit .270 with 22 home runs and his future certainly looks bright.
But Adam LaRoche was the team's best all-around hitter, hitting .271 with 33 homers and 100 RBI.
Will going through the playoffs without Strasburg cost the Nats? Only time will tell.
Many of my preseason predictions did not go so well for me, but that's OK. The thing about baseball is that it's almost impossible to know what will happen over the course of a 162-game season. Who thought the Athletics and Orioles to be in the playoffs this year? That's what makes baseball such a great sport, and that's also why they play the games.

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