Top 5 NL and AL MVP Candidates for 2012

While the wild-card, AL Central and AL East races are probably going to be the most exciting MLB battles as the 2012 season comes to a close, the Most Valuable Player races are arguably going to be just as tight when we get to Game 162.

OK, the AL MVP is pretty much locked up (no, I'm not referring to Jeff Francoeur), but you never know how the voters will decide who is most deserving. Too many times, a player is penalized because his team doesn't make the playoffs, so the AL MVP might not be who we expect. Ugh.

The NL MVP race, however, does not have one obvious choice. In fact, there are at least three players who have extremely legitimate cases to win the award. Don't think for a second that this parity is because the MVP candidates have had unimpressive seasons. Quite the opposite. These players have been so equally stellar that no one has been able to run away with the MVP.

This race is like the 100-meter dash from this summer's Olympics if Usain Bolt wasn't allowed to participate...which I guess would make Joey Votto the MLB version of Bolt, because he was the clear favorite until he got hurt, right?

Moving on...

Last year, I wrote Justin Upton and Justin Verlander should have been the recipients of the award. If I could go back, I would've picked Matt Kemp and Jose Bautista. I gave Kemp and Joey Bats less credit because they didn't play for contending teams, which basically meant I penalized them for having bad teammates.

I was young and naive back then, OK?

With football season in full swing, we might not pay as much attention to baseball as we should. These next few weeks of baseball will be more than worth your while, trust me.

Here are the five best AL and NL MVP candidates, as well as cases for and against each player's candidacy.

5. Justin Verlander, AL

Case For

While it might sound preposterous that Verlander is having anywhere near as good of a year as he did in 2011, he actually hasn't been much worse.

His fielding independent pitching (or FIP, which focuses on a pitcher's strikeouts, walks and home runs) is the same as it was all of last season. His wins above replacement* (or WAR, which essentially uses FIP and factors in home ballpark and defense to describe how valuable a pitcher is) is an MLB-best 6.1 for pitchers (7.0 last year), according to FanGraphs.

I might be sounding really stat-geeky, but if you want to see how well a pitcher has actually performed, FIP and WAR (which is also used for position players) are two of the best stats you can use, and Verlander has been at the top or near the top in both categories.

He's been the best pitcher in either league, and the Tigers would probably be closer to the Royals than the White Sox in the standings without him.

Case Against

Elite starting pitchers appear in about 200 innings per year. Elite position players play about 1,000 more innings than that, hitting and (often) fielding at ridiculously high levels. To have a year where a pitcher is more valuable than every position player is almost impossible.

On the surface, Verlander's 2011 performance was better than any by an AL position player. People like myself got blinded by Verlander's sparkling 24-5 record, 2.40 ERA, and league-leading 250 Ks and failed to see that at least six AL position players were more valuable than him.

This year, there are actually fewer AL position players who are more valuable than Verlander compared to last year.

Bottom Line

Verlander shouldn't have been close to the top of the MVP ballot last year and is the fifth-most valuable AL player this year, at best. He's still been fantastic and might end up with better advanced stats than last year, but the next four players have been significantly better.

*Every WAR number you'll see in this article is based on FanGraphs' version of the all-inclusive stat.

4. Miguel Cabrera, AL

Case For

Cabrera is arguably the best hitter in the game. He has a .328 average, 37 home runs, .392 OBP, .589 SLG and a 6.0 WAR (3rd in the AL). He's not what you would call a "good baserunner" or "fast," but his hitting more than makes up for his leg-moving struggles.

Case Against

If you thought Cabrera's lack of speed hurt him on the basepaths, you should see him play defense. It's one thing to have a player with terrible range at first base, but it can kill a team when he's playing third.

One has to wonder if Detroit would be comfortably leading the Central if it had a better defender at third and Cabrera at first. I'd still rather have the current Tigers lineup and give up some fielding value, but that doesn't make Detroit's defense any less of a liability.

Bottom Line

Cabrera is an amazing hitter, but he severely hurts his team on defense and on the basepaths. The next three guys on this list are much more complete players.

3. Adrian Beltre, AL

Case For

This spot was between Beltre and his teammate Josh Hamilton, and while I'm sure tons of people disagree that Hamilton is less valuable, Beltre has been better in multiple areas.

He's got a batting line of .318 BA/.357 OBP/.556 SLG compared to Hamilton's .286/.356/.588. Beltre's strikeout rate is also half as high as Hamilton's—a significant difference. Hamilton obviously has more power (10 more HRs), but Beltre is a more complete hitter.

Defensively, it's not even close. Hamilton is a below-average center fielder, while Beltre plays the hot corner about as well as anyone.

Oh, and Beltre's WAR is 5.8 (fourth in the AL) compared to 5.0 for Hamilton. Beltre has a wonderful all-around game, and he's the most valuable player on an admittedly stacked Texas team.

Case Against

Beltre's baserunning? Better than Miguel Cabrera's but below average compared to the rest of the league.

His 5.7 walk rate is by far the lowest of the players who are in the top 10 in AL WAR and well below the league average. Texas' offense doesn't necessarily need Beltre to get on base at an elite rate, but just imagine how much better both Beltre and the Rangers would be if he took a few more pitches. The AL West might have been clinched by now if his OBP was .380 or higher.

OK, that might be an overstatement, but you get my point.

Bottom Line

Beltre does so many things right, but his poor baserunning and lack of plate discipline prevent him from being higher on this list.

2. Robinson Cano, AL

Case For

That beautiful, gorgeous, lovely swing is enough to woo me, but then I look at his stats and start thinking, "Should Cano be the 2012 AL MVP?"

Thankfully, I'm not that in love with Cano's all-around abilities, but his performance this season has been exceptional: .300/.370/.539, 30 HRs, 6.2 WAR (2nd in the AL) and great defense at the extra-valuable position of second base.

The Yankees have been demolished by injuries this season yet remain a division leader. Without Cano, they might be fighting with the Red Sox and Blue Jays to avoid being in the cellar in the AL East.

(Sorry, I can't help myself; I like overstating things.)

Case Against

There really isn't much Cano does wrong. His baserunning metrics are below average, but every other part of his game is extremely solid.

He does play for the evil Yankees...now I'm just desperately looking for negative aspects of Cano's game.

Bottom Line

The next guy on this list is the only reason Cano is No 2.

1. Mike Trout, AL

Case For

.331/.397/.565, 27 HRs, 45 SBs, 9.4 WAR, ridonkulous defense. He does everything you want a baseball player to do—at a premium position to boot.

Look at those numbers again. This guy just became old enough to legally drink!

Case Against

He strikes out a little too much (21.0 K percentage). That's the only thing he does wrong.

And please don't even think about mentioning the fact that the Angels might miss the playoffs. He can't control his teammates!

Bottom Line

There's nothing I can say to adequately describe how amazing Trout has been this season. Rookie of the Year, Gold Glove, MVP, Best Original Screenplay...just give him all the awards. He's been that good.

5. Chase Headley, NL

Case For

Both the Padres and Headley have been red-hot over the past month, and their shared success is not a coincidence. The Padres are only six games behind the Dodgers and Cardinals for the second wild card, and although they probably aren't going to make the playoffs, they'd be fighting to avoid being in the NL West cellar with Colorado if not for Headley.

That is not an overstatement. Headley's impact has been that huge.

.282/.366/.481, 27 HRs, 14 SBs, 6.3 WAR (5th in the NL) and good defense at a premium position are excellent things to put on your MVP resume. Oh, and Headley plays in the worst hitter's park in all of baseball. Imagine how much better those numbers would be if he played in even an average hitter's park.

Case Against

Like so many players on this list, it's hard to find many flaws in Headley's game. His baserunning metrics are pretty poor, and his strikeout rate is high, but he doesn't do much else wrong.

Bottom Line

Headley does just about everything you want from your third baseman and has been the biggest reason San Diego (SAN DIEGO!) is even thinking about the playoffs.

It's too bad his amazing season couldn't put him aHeadley of the next four players on this list.

4. David Wright, NL

Case For

Wright actually leads the NL in WAR (7.3), and he's hitting .313/.401/.495 with 14 steals, has an extremely high 12.9 walk rate and plays above-average defense at—this will shock you—the premium position of third base.

David Wright is the fourth third baseman in this slideshow. I'm obviously biased towards the hot corner.

Case Against

While Citi Field is definitely friendlier to pitchers than hitters, Wright's total of 17 home runs is still a little low for someone who's considered a power-hitting third baseman. As I pointed out in the last slide, Petco Park is the most pitcher-friendly park out there, and Chase Headley has hit 10 more homers than Wright while calling Petco home.

Bottom Line

Power isn't the end-all be-all for hitters, but you have to really stand out from the rest of the MVP candidates in other areas of your game if you want to be higher on this list (I'm assuming Wright is intensely reading this slide, so that's why I used "you" so much in this sentence).

Wright does not stand out in those other areas, so that is why he sits here at No. 4. Just like the Mets in the NL East standings! He fits in so well with his team.

3. Ryan Braun, NL

Case For

Ryan Braun might actually be having a better season than last year's MVP campaign. He's likely to surpass 40 HRs. He's got 24 SBs, a .311/.386/.592 batting line and an 7.1 WAR that is third-best in the NL.

I can comfortably say that Braun is the best overall hitter in the NL.

Case Against

Of the five NL candidates on this list, Braun is probably the worst fielder. He's not an awful defender, but left field is not a premium position, and he's only average at playing this non-premium position.

Bottom Line

Would the Brewers even be sniffing the playoffs without Braun? Of course not. He's amazing. The difference between him and the next two players is minuscule. If he played better defense at a more difficult/valuable position, he'd definitely be No. 1 on this list.

2. Andrew McCutchen, NL

Case For

Both the stats and the team he plays for aid Andrew McCutchen's MVP resume.

He's hitting .341/.409/.568 with 28 HRs, 16 SBs, 7.2 WAR (2nd in the NL) and better fielding than the metrics indicate.

McCutchen also plays for the Pittsburgh Pirates, a team that hasn't had a winning record since another young, powerful, speedy, African-American outfielder was knocking the snot out of baseballs in Pittsburgh.

The Pirates currently have a winning record, and if they can finish the season over .500 (or even in the playoffs), people will give most of the credit to McCutchen for leading them there.

That credit will be deserved.

Case Against

All that being said, McCutchen doesn't deserve all the credit for the Pittsburgh resurgence. A.J. Burnett, James McDonald, Jeff Karstens, Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez have all been solid—OK, you're right, his teammates are awful. He probably deserves even more credit than he's getting.

Like I said, I don't believe McCutchen is as bad of a fielder as the defensive metrics say he is, but they wouldn't be that bad if he was truly above average on defense. As much as I like McCutchen, I just can't get past his defensive struggles.

Bottom Line

His offensive numbers are only slightly better than the next guy on this list, so his defense ultimately costs him in my mind.

McCutchen is heartbroken, I'm sure.

1. Buster Posey, NL

Case For

The Giants lost Melky Cabrera a month ago. Since then, they've gone 19-9 and opened up a 7.5-game lead over the Dodgers. Buster Posey has been on fire since July, and he and his teammates have scored the most runs on the road of any team in the majors.

That right there is enough to validate Posey's MVP case.

What's that, you want to see numbers?

OK, how does .333/.407/.546, 22 HR, 6.8 WAR (with far fewer plate appearances than the previous four players on this list), above-average K and BB rates and very good defense at the extremely valuable position of catcher sound?

I agree, he's really good.

Case Against

Posey is a catcher, which means he's not the swiftest of foot. Lack of speed pretty much always hurts your baserunning, which is certainly an important area of a player's game, even though Posey makes up for those flaws with his consistently great plate appearances.

Also, one could make the case that Melky Cabrera was more valuable to the Giants than Posey before he was suspended; therefore, Posey hasn't meant as much to his team as Braun or McCutchen. I don't totally agree with that logic, but it's a fair argument.

Bottom Line

Posey is such a brilliant hitter, he could win this award even if you didn't consider the position he plays and how well he plays it. The fact that he's been able to do everything he has at the plate while taking such a mental and physical toll behind it is truly incredible.

I strongly considered all five NL players on this list as my No. 1 MVP candidate before finally deciding on Posey.

The NL MVP race is going to be just as tight, and it will be 100 times harder for the award's voters to make their decisions as it was for me to write this.