Fantasy Football: Week 2 Flex Appeal

I’ve been there before. I’ve gotten lost pacing up and down the streets of conventional wisdom, just another face in a large crowd, playing by the 101s, the standards set by decades of experience and research.

I’ve taken bad advice, and I’ve given it just the same. I’ve even challenged the system on more than one occasion. I’ve stumbled into dark passages of back-alley reasoning, all in the name of finding a competitive edge.

I’ve seen it happen right in front me. I’ve seen a Green Bay defense get drafted in the fifth round of an eight-team league. I’ve seen Dwayne Bowe on the waiver wire going into Week 6, just before he put together 733 yards and 13 touchdowns in a seven-week stretch.

I remember that because I put him there.

That’s what happens when players struggle in the beginning of the season. They get dumped.

Just seven days ago, there was a throng of people circling around the same premise: that Ronnie Brown would be an excellent flex play.

In theory, he was. The Raiders run defense should have been soft. The game should have been high-scoring. The Chargers should have had several goal-to-go situations. Brown should have had the majority of carries.

None of that proved to be true. Brown had five carries for five yards. He lost time to Curtis Brinkley, who wasn’t any better. Conventional wisdom failed us.

That’s going to happen from time to time. At the risk of sounding cliché, on any given Sunday, any player could win or lose your fantasy matchup. You can’t always rely on your studs. They will need help.

That’s why starting the right flex player is so important.

Alfred Morris

We’re about to travel down a long, dark road far from the nearest current of conventional wisdom. We’re going to lather up the cliché of “fool me once shame one you, fool me twice shame on me” and try to slip pass the pitfalls.

When “experts” refer to reducing risk, this is exactly what they’re talking about. Playing Shanahan roulette in Week 2 is a great way to win the No. 1 waiver pick in Week 3.

If you’re not familiar, go back to 2011 and look at the numbers for the Redskins running backs. Anyone stand out? I didn’t think so. If there’s anything worse than a platoon, it’s a platoon without a leader.

Morris had a solid outing against the Saints last week, which means he’ll be starting against the St. Louis Rams this week. While that may seem like a great matchup, Morris could fumble in the first quarter and not see another snap for the rest of the game.

That’s how they roll in Washington. It’s all about the game-flow. But that’s exactly why I like Morris. The Redskins are either going to completely dominate the Rams or keep up with the Rams. They are not going to fall hopelessly behind and abandon the run.

Various “experts” reviewed the tape on Morris and suggested that he benefited from pass-interference calls that led to his touchdowns. That’s true. He also ran with the kind of vision that a third-year back would. And what really makes him valuable is playing in an option-offense featuring a quarterback with great awareness and an offensive line with great vision for creating lanes.

And it's the Rams. Don’t be afraid. Start Morris.

Kevin Smith

It’s unfortunate, really, to see a player score 21 points one week and then have to face the San Francisco 49ers defense the next. What’s important to remember with Kevin Smith is that he is the starting running back for a team that is capable of putting up a serious number of points, regardless of the defense they are facing.

I’m going to give the edge to Jim Schwartz in this one. We’re far removed from handshake-gate, but everyone knows that the Lions have had this date circled since the schedule was released.

The 49ers have the best pass rush in the NFL. But they don’t have the kind of secondary that’s going to allow them to key on the blitz and still be able to cover the likes of Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson and Brandon Pettigrew.

In the end, something has to give. That something is Smith. He will benefit from a lot of checkdowns and will find the end zone for the third time this season.

Lance Moore

It’s difficult to confidently start a Saints player that isn’t named Drew Brees. They all produce to a certain extent, but providing the kind of numbers that help us sleep at night can’t be counted on week to week.

Lance Moore is especially guilty of this. He didn’t have a single 100-yard game last year and hasn’t had back-to-back 100-yard games since 2008.

A lot of that is the result of a highly efficient offense that spreads the ball around. But perhaps the relocation of Robert Meachem is all he needed. Perhaps with defenses game-planning around Darren Sproles and Jimmy Graham, Moore could finally find the kind of reliability that keeps him on rosters.

He will need to prove it in Week 2. With Devery Henderson possibly sidelined with a concussion, and a divisional matchup against the Carolina Panthers that is sure to be high-scoring, Moore should be in-line for a lot of targets.

He’s a solid flex play for at least this week.

The Usual Suspects

Reggie Wayne

WR3, flex, whatever you want to call him, he needs to be in your lineup. In larger leagues, he’s a must-start. In smaller leagues, he’s one of the most reliable flex players on the board. He’s essentially matchup proof, and if Andrew Luck turns out to be the kind of player we all think he is, Wayne is in for a huge season.

Michael Bush

It wasn’t a fluke. It wasn’t just garbage time. It was the plan all along. Bush is never going to give you big yardage. But he’s always going to be a threat around the goal line for a team that should be there a lot.

That includes Thursdays night’s game in Green Bay—especially if the rain slips up defenses and makes it harder to pass.

Anquan Boldin

The Philadelphia Eagles defense may have turn the corner. Then again, they may have just been in a dog fight with one of the worst teams in the league (Cleveland).

Either way, they won’t be a match for the Baltimore Ravens. This offense has been revolutionized. Joe Flacco is going to have the best year of his career. Anquan Boldin has always been the kind of player that brings toughness and versatility to a good passing attack.

Again, his yardage totals won’t be overwhelming, but he will find the end zone.

Going Deep

Michael Crabtree

Is it finally happening? Is Michael Crabtree finally playing up to his potential? Or was his hypothetical potential set out of reach immediately upon his tenth-overall selection in the 2009 draft?

Or has it been the lack of a good, confident quarterback that has held him back all these years? Maybe that’s been a source of the poor work ethic and the diva attitude that’s been associated with him.

It’s hard to tell at this point.

But I can tell you that he had seven catches for 76 yards last week and that he and Alex Smith were completely in sync. This week, they host Detroit, who is famous for giving up big plays. Crabtree could really take advantage of this matchup.

Eric Decker

Peyton Manning had a great debut as a member of the Denver Broncos. If that’s any indication of how well their passing attack is going to perform each week, it’s not a bad idea to start stashing every wide receiver they have.

Eric Decker didn’t have a stellar week. His teammate, Demaryius Thomas, benefited the most when he broke off a big catch-and-run for a touchdown. The fact of the matter is that both players are in for a big week against Atlanta Monday night. It’s going to be a barn-burner, and Decker will rebound in a big way.

Malcom Floyd

Here’s the thing, Malcom Floyd is in for a huge year, and this will probably be the last time I post him as a flex player. He is well on his way to a WR2/WR3 role and should be owned in every single league on the planet.

Eventually, Ryan Mathews will come back healthy, and defenses will struggle shutting down Phillip Rivers and his receivers. Robert Meachem will work his way into this column. But for right now, Floyd is a must-start against the Titans.

Even if the Chargers blow the game wide open, they’re still going to throw the ball. Because that’s what bad coaches do.