Power Ranking the Top 5 American League Rotation Duos for the Playoffs

You know what my favorite part of October baseball is?

It's a chance to see teams throw their best weapons at one another, particularly as it pertains to their starting rotations. In the postseason, watching No. 1 and No. 2 starting pitchers duke it out with one another is an everyday occurrence. 

Awesome things can happen when two great pitchers are on the mound in October. Last year's showdown between Chris Carpenter and Roy Halladay in Game 5 of the NLDS was one for the books. Many, many years before that, Jack Morris and John Smoltz gave us an all-timer in Game 7 of the 1991 World Series.

We're bound to see some more instant classics in this year's postseason, especially in the American League. The Junior Circuit is loaded with ace starting pitchers, and most of the league's contenders feature excellent No. 2 starting pitchers as well.

The question, naturally, is which club's one-two pitching punch will be the most fearsome when October finally rolls around.

Glad you asked. Here's how I would rank the top five AL rotation duos for the playoffs.

Note: All stats come from Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

5. Chris Sale and Jake Peavy, Chicago White Sox

On the surface, the numbers attached to Chris Sale and Jake Peavy suggest that they may be the best one-two punch in the American League.

Sale is 15-6 with a 2.93 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP, and Peavy is 10-10 with a 3.22 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. With numbers like these, you may be wondering why they're not all the way up at No. 1 on this list.

Had I made this list at the All-Star break, Sale and Peavy probably would have occupied the No. 1 spot on this list. It was at that point that Sale was 10-2 with a 2.19 ERA and Peavy was 7-5 with a 2.85 ERA. There was little question that they were the best rotation duo in the American League.

They're down here at No. 5 because the second half hasn't been so kind to Sale and Peavy.

Sale has a 4.18 ERA since the break, and he's giving up a .798 OPS to hitters after holding them to a .546 OPS in the first half.

Peavy, meanwhile, has a 3.90 ERA in the second half and is allowing an OPS of .762 after allowing an OPS of .610 in the first half.

Both of them have had their moments since the break, to be sure. Sale's 13-strikeout performance against the New York Yankees in late August was a thing of beauty. Peavy has pitched a couple beautiful eight-inning performances since the break.

Generally speaking, though, both Sale and Peavy have been vulnerable in the second half. Neither of them is missing a ton of bats, and hitters are hitting them pretty hard when they make contact.

Plus, we're talking about two pitchers with minimal postseason experience. Sale has never pitched in October, and Peavy hasn't pitched in October in six years.

They're good enough to be in the top five on this list, but there are better rotation duos out there.

4. Hiroki Kuroda and CC Sabathia, New York Yankees

It's become a matter of debate whether the Yankees are better off starting Hiroki Kuroda or CC Sabathia in Game 1 when (if?) they get to the postseason, but this duo deserves to be ranked over Sale and Peavy either way.

Kuroda has been a money pitcher since the All-Star break, going 5-3 with a 2.66 ERA and an opponents' batting average of .223 in 11 starts. Over his last 19 starts dating back to late May, Kuroda is 10-4 with a 2.58 ERA.

Kuroda has come back down to earth a little bit in his last couple starts, but he's still a machine. He hasn't pitched any fewer than six innings in two months, and he's pitched at least seven innings in 17 of his 28 starts.

By now, everyone has noticed that Sabathia is not his usual self this year. In addition to having to go on the disabled list twice, he has a mediocre (for him) 3.42 ERA and a .246 opponents' batting average.

I won't argue that Sabathia hasn't pitched like a No. 1 this year, but the perception out there that the sky is falling where he's concerned is over-dramatic. 

Case in point, Sabathia has a 3.38 ERA and an opponents' OPS of .646 in eight starts since the All-Star break. In the three starts he's made since going on the disabled list for a second time with an elbow problem, he's pitched at least seven innings in each one and compiled a 2.53 ERA with 21 strikeouts in 21.1 innings pitched.

In Kuroda and Sabathia, we're talking about two pitchers with plenty of recent postseason experience. Most of it belongs to Sabathia, as he's pitched in the playoffs every year since 2007. Kuroda got his toes wet in the postseason in 2008 and 2009 when he was with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Kuroda and Sabathia are not an indestructible duo, but the Yankees could do a lot worse than them as their first two starters in October.

3. Jered Weaver and Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Angels

Kinda like how Sale and Peavy would have been No. 1 had I put this list together at the All-Star break, Jered Weaver and Zack Greinke would have been No. 1 had I put this list together at the trade deadline.

It was at that point that Weaver was 14-1 with a beastly 2.29 ERA, and Greinke was coming to the Angels as the major league leader in FIP (fielding independent pitching). The notion of watching the two of them do work in October was enough to make my mouth water even though I'm not and have never been an Angels fan (I'm just a simple Mike Trout fan).

Weaver and Greinke are down here at No. 3 in part because Weaver hasn't been so hot in his last five starts. He's gone 1-3 with an ERA over 6.00 and an opponents' batting average of .293. He's looked nothing like the guy who was leading the AL in ERA for a while there.

We now know that a bad shoulder may be to blame. According to Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times, Weaver has shoulder tendinitis. 

Greinke, meanwhile, is doing just fine. He struggled to adjust to life as an Angel for a couple weeks, but he's since rebounded to post a 1.66 ERA over his last three starts, allowing only 14 hits in 21.2 innings.

If Weaver gets healthy and Greinke stays hot, the Angels are going to be in good shape in October (assuming they get there). When the two of them are one, they're both perfectly capable of matching goose eggs with the best of the best the league has to offer.

It helps that both of them have October experience. Weaver got to experience October three years in a row from 2007 to 2009, and Greinke got to experience it for the first time last season.

Much needs to happen for them to experience October again, but they're a pair to watch if the Angels get there.

2. David Price and James Shields, Tampa Bay Rays

In David Price, the Rays have a pitcher who finished second in the AL Cy Young voting in 2010 and who is once again contending to win the award this season.

In James Shields, they have a pitcher who finished third in the AL Cy Young voting last season when he logged an absurd 11 complete games and four shutouts.

When they're on, Price and Shields are two of the best the American League has to offer. And fortunately for the Rays, both of them are on right now.

Price had a slip-up in Texas last week, but even despite that he's 9-1 with a 2.13 ERA and a .204 opponents' batting average over his last 14 starts. 

Shields was a disappointment for much of the season, but he's found his form recently. Over his last seven starts, Shields is 5-1 with a 2.22 ERA and a .165 opponents' batting average.

Neither of them is a stranger to October baseball. Price and Shields have both seen three Octobers, making a total of 11 starts between the two of them.

So why Price and Shields ahead of Weaver and Greinke?

It's a close call, believe me, but the Rays' dynamic duo gets the nod because Price has been better than Weaver recently and, well, all year. As good as Greinke has been recently, Shields has been just as good and his hot streak dates back longer.

Of course, I'm not opposed to this debate being settled the old-fashioned way. The Rays and Angels need to make it happen.

1. Justin Verlander and Doug Fister (or Max Scherzer), Detroit Tigers

The only pitcher in the American League who's been as good as Justin Verlander this year is Felix Hernandez. 

And since he and the Mariners won't be seeing October this year, that means the Tigers will have the best pitcher in the field if they make it to the playoffs.

Verlander has had slip-ups here and there, but they've been blown out of proportion while his excellent starts have gone largely overlooked. He's the only pitcher in baseball with six complete games to his name, and he ranks second to Hernandez in FIP and is tied with Hernandez in WAR, according to FanGraphs.

He'll be Detroit's No. 1 starting pitcher in the postseason for sure. The hard part for Jim Leyland will be figuring out who to start behind him.

Doug Fister is one candidate. He had a very hard time getting on track this season, but he's 6-2 with a 2.48 ERA and a .213 opponents' batting average in 10 starts since the All-Star break. He's a guy who can go seven or eight shutout innings on a given night.

Max Scherzer would work just as well as a No. 2 starting pitcher. Not a whole lot of people have noticed, but Scherzer is 7-1 with a 2.76 ERA and 83 strikeouts in 65.1 innings pitched in 10 starts since the All-Star break.

Better yet, Scherzer is 4-0 with a shiny 0.62 ERA and a .168 opponents' batting average in his last four starts.

Yeah, it makes absolutely no sense that the Tigers aren't in first place in the AL Central. But given the way they've handled the White Sox recently, that's bound to change for good at some point.

When it does, the AL will begin to fear Verlander, Fister and Scherzer. In a short postseason series, they'll be deadly no matter what order Leyland puts them in.

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