The Quest to Beat Joe Lunardi: Pickin' the NCAA Bracket (Sunday AM edition)

So, having heard all the guys at ESPN talk about the greatness of Joe Lunardi, I wanted to see, putting up 10 days of hard work into it (starting last Friday, March 7), to see if I could be close, or even better. So what I'm going to do is list the 65 teams in an outline for a basic list, then go in ridiculous detail underneath in matchup form to explain why.

Hopefully, it'll be informative, if not put people to sleep. I also will try to update each day, though the info for the teams won't change much day-to-day unless moved or played. My basic info of use is RPI, Strength of schedule, and record vs RPI top 100, as well as generic record/conference type/conference record setup. Since I didn't feel like spending money on ESPN's InsideRPI, I used the daily RPI from Ken Pomeroy's website at www.kenpom.com/rpi.

Lots to discuss, and still a few adjustment possibilities today, sure to make the committee thrilled. Today I’m just going to break down everything that changed, you’ve probably had enough of the 65 team 5,000 word sleepfest.

The way this quest will work is I will compare my bracket with Joe’s (and others if I feel like doing so) on two items: Which teams are in (out of 65, probably will be within like four), and how close to getting actual seeds. We’ll do one point per seed off (so six instead of five is one point, nine instead of seven is two, etc; lower score wins), and see what happens. One thing’s for sure, I have a heck of a lot more respect for him doing this all year, I’m pretty drained.

Going by seed in East, Midwest, South, West order (official conference champs in bold, estimated champs in all CAPS).

Through games of March 15:

1. NORTH CAROLINA, TEXAS (+1), Memphis, UCLA

2. Georgetown, Kansas, Tennessee (-1), Duke

3. Stanford, Xavier, Louisville, WISCONSIN

4. Vanderbilt, Mich St, UConn, Drake (+1)

5. Marquette (-1), Butler, Wash St (+1), Pitt (+1)

6. Purdue (+1), Indiana (-1), Clemson, Notre Dame (-1)

7. BYU (no caps) (-1), West Virginia, Gonzaga, ARKANSAS (+2),

8. KENT ST, USC (no caps) (+1), Oklahoma (-1), Texas A&M

9. Kansas St, Miami-FL (-1), UNLV (-1), Mississippi St

10. St. Mary’s (-1), Oregon (+1), Baylor (+1), S Alabama

11. Illinois St (-1), Kentucky (-1), Temple (new), Arizona

12. Davidson, Villanova, St Joseph’s , W Kentucky

13. Siena, George Mason, Cornell (+1), Oral Roberts

14. Boise St (-1), Cal St Fullerton, Austin Peay, San Diego

15. American, Belmont, Winthrop, UMBC

16. (Play-in) Miss Valley St/Coppin St (new), Mount St Mary's, Portland St, UT-ARLINGTON

Let’s make this breakdown in bulletpoints:

• Georgia (15-16 record,108 RPI,43 SOS) can steal an at-large (which will be Villanova before St Joe’s) with a win over Arkansas Sunday afternoon, which would be hilarious if the game ends at like 5:50 ET with the announcements at 6:00. Big risk.
• Illinois (16-18,103,30) would do the same (and St Joe’s is the next one out… so the A-10 could have four at 1:00 PM (if UMass is in, though in mine they are not), and two by the time the field’s announced. Odd that two power conference teams go that far especially when so bad, with neither Illinois nor Georgia even NIT worthy since under .500, but could get in NCAAs tomorrow.
• I had a tough time with my four teams at the at-large precipice with the St Joe’s (21-12,45,53), Villanova (20-12,51,48), Virginia Tech (19-13,53,38), and Ohio St (19-13,49,1), who all seem to be in thick of at-large discussion. I decided to decide by just putting together their record against NCAA worthy teams, and each other (so St Joe’s beating Villanova counted). St Joe’s was 7-4 (and lost to Syracuse), Ohio State 4-9 (though two were Coppin St and UMBC), Villanova was 5-7, and Virginia Tech was 1-7, with that one being Miami Thursday. Ohio St and Va Tech were out. Then I checked UMass(21-10,43,71), who I had safely in, and they were 0-5 (though with wins over Dayton and Syracuse, others very close to the bubble), so I dropped them to the last one out behind Nova, since they still did go 10-6 in the apparently excellent A-10. I will probably flip a coin at about 15 minutes before they announce for my last minute final bracket to use for our guessing game.  
• Temple (21-12,48,50) gets in with win over St Joe’s Saturday, great run for team that were ignored but probably one of the 10 best teams out at the beginning of the tourney, and played in the hard way.
• Other champions made Saturday are: Memphis, UCLA, Pitt (4 wins in 4 days, conclude with win over Georgetown), UNLV (somewhat surprising over BYU), Kent St, Boise St (in a great 3 OT game I watched about an hour worth of), Cal-St Fullerton (easily), UM-Baltimore County (really easily, impressive, but still 14-15), and my current two play-in game teams: Mississippi Valley St (15-15,229,315), and Coppin St (14-20,227,259), who also happens to be the first 20-loss team ever in the tournament. That’s kind of sad.
• Texas jumps Tennessee for the other number one, despite the fact Tennessee still is number one in RPI and SOS, and almost always that team is a one-seed. Tennessee didn’t win their conference tourney, and Memphis and UCLA did. Also, if Kansas beats Texas, then Kansas and Texas will switch spots.
• Arkansas jumped up a lot this weekend, especially after Tennessee win, probably won’t move anymore, but noteworthy.
• UNLV dropped despite winning because I was looking at how the committee treated them last year, giving them a seven-seed (which I had them at this year), except that last year their RPI was 10, and this year it’s 24, so there’s now way they’d be a seven, and probably not an eight either, so I put them at nine.
• Quick breakdown of the last five games Sunday:
• Clemson vs UNC: UNC is number one seed either way. Clemson would move from a six to a five with a win and switch with Washington St.
• UT-Arlington vs Northwestern St: Either winner will be a #16 seed, neither expected to be in final in the first place. I’m pretty sure 99 percent of people watching college basketball at 1:00 ET will be watching the ACC game.
• Texas vs Kansas: Winner gets number one seed, loser doesn’t.  Should be fun, Kansas eeked out energetic Texas A&M team, Texas destroyed OU (surprising even to me who’ve seen them in person like 20 times this year).
• Georgia vs Arkansas: Potential rut in the system if Georgia wins. Arkansas probably stuck at seven-seed. Huge game for St Joe’s and Villanova’s at-large hopes. Georgia would be a #14 seed if get in on my bracket.
• Illinois vs Wisconsin: I don’t think Wisconsin will be a number two seed, mostly because they don’t have top-10 RPI and won’t by beating #103 RPI Illinois. Illinois has same situation of Georgia. I would put them at #14 seed if win, and move Boise St up first, then Cal St Fullerton if both the Bulldogs and the Illini win up to #13, and Oral Roberts then George Mason up to 12. Contingency plan is set.

That’s it for the breakdown. Thanks a lot to all who read, and I will update with just the bracket part hopefully long enough before the announcement that it can be viewed legitimately and I won’t be cheating. If I don’t, use the breakdown here. Should be fine though.