NL Cy Young Award Rankings: Clayton Kershaw, Johnny Cueto Race to Finish

No pitcher is pulling away in the National League Cy Young Award race as the season heads into September. 

At this point, we appear to have a two-man competition between the Cincinnati Reds' Johnny Cueto and the Los Angeles Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw. But it's a really close race, and there are so many other good pitchers in the NL this season that could easily emerge as the top candidate with a strong September.

In our view, the list of contenders for the NL Cy Young Award goes 12 pitchers deep. So there are going to be several worthy names that get left out of the top five and honorable mentions. This week, that list of snubs includes Gio Gonzalez, Wade Miley, Jordan Zimmermann and Ryan Vogelsong. Some will surely argue they should be among the top contenders. They could easily be there next week.

For now, the following five pitchers (and three honorable mentions) look like the leading candidates for NL Cy Young Award honors. But it's going to be a fierce competition through September, and the list of top contenders could shuffle each week. 

Please share your responses and suggestions in the comments. I know there will be some disagreement this week. You can also reply to me on Twitter. My address is at the end of this article. That feedback is always considered when these rankings are put together each week. 

All the statistics mentioned here are current as of Aug. 31.

Honorable Mentions

Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants

Moving Bumgarner out of the top five after one bad performance seems harsh. But with the competition so close among the NL's top pitchers, one game could make a big difference.

The Giants left-hander was roughed up in his most recent start, on Aug. 25. Bumgarner gave up four runs and seven hits to the Atlanta Braves over 6.1 innings. He also issued four walks, matching his highest total of the season. 

As Carl Steward of the San Jose Mercury News wrote in his recap of the game, Bumgarner told reporters afterwards that he lost control of his mechanics in the third inning. His walking two of the first three batters he faced that inning (including pitcher Mike Minor) confirms that. Bumgarner then served up a three-run homer to Jason Heyward.

For the first time this season, Bumgarner wasn't able to fix himself as the game progressed. That shows how fine the line can be between success and failure for pitchers. Any little disruption can make a huge difference.

Despite those struggles, Bumgarner's 1.02 WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched) is tied for the best mark among NL starting pitchers. His .220 opponents' batting average ranks third in the league.

Kyle Lohse, St. Louis Cardinals

Some might feel Lohse's inclusion on this list—even if it's as an honorable mention—is long overdue. Lohse's 14-2 record and 2.64 ERA certainly look impressive. That ERA is currently the third best among NL starting pitchers.

Lohse also ranks fifth in the league with a 1.08 WHIP, and his .238 opponents' batting average places him among the NL's top 10 pitchers. 

What's interesting about Lohse's performance this season is that advanced metrics (courtesy of FanGraphs) suggest he isn't as good as his 2.64 ERA indicates. His FIP (fielding-independent pitching) number is 3.54, while his xFIP is 4.09. Those numbers imply that Lohse is an average pitcher helped out by his defense and a pitcher-friendly ballpark. 

However, Lohse doesn't let many baserunners score. He leaves 80 percent of runners on base, in fact. It's not because he's an extreme ground-ball pitcher. Lohse's percentage of ground balls (40.7) versus fly balls (35.0) is pretty close. Yet 10 percent of his batted balls are infield fly balls. Perhaps that indicates he just gets great movement on his slider and changeup, inducing some bad swings. 

Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals

It just wouldn't seem right not to have a Nationals pitcher on this list, considering their staff has the best team ERA in baseball. 

However, Strasburg might be looking at his last week among the top contenders. In his most recent start, he pitched his worst game of the season. Facing the Miami Marlins, he allowed seven runs (five earned) and nine hits over five innings. 

As CSN Washington's Mark Zuckerman reported, Strasburg had trouble locating his fastball. That might indicate that his arm is wearing down and that the Nats are indeed doing the right thing by shutting him down in September. (Manager Davey Johnson informed Strasburg that he has "a few starts left," according to The Washington Post's Adam Kilgore.)

Strasburg also got himself into trouble by not holding baserunners. The Marlins stole two bases against him. One of those was by 270-pound Carlos Lee, who came into the game with two stolen bases on the season. 

With 186 strikeouts, Strasburg continues to lead the NL in that category. His rate of 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings is also tops in the league. (Max Scherzer recently overtook him for the major league lead.) His 1.14 WHIP ranks seventh, while his .230 opponents' batting average is sixth. 

5. Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies

Last Week: Honorable Mention

Cole Hamels missed his scheduled start for Wednesday (Aug. 29) due to a stomach illness. According to MLB.com's Todd Zolecki, Hamels ate a bad salad. Those things will get you if you're not careful.

But in each of his past six starts, the Philadelphia Phillies left-hander hasn't allowed more than three runs. In two of those appearances, he pitched shutouts. That dropped Hamels' ERA to 2.99, placing him 10th among NL pitchers.

With a 1.12 WHIP, Hamels ranks among the league's top five in that category. His .235 opponents' batting average is among the 10 best in the NL. Hamels also ranks third in the league with 172 strikeouts. His 177.1 innings are also the seventh-highest total among NL starting pitchers. 

But Hamels' numbers have been frozen in place since last week because of that missed start. How he performs against Atlanta on Sunday (Sept. 2) should be a good test for him. The last time he faced the Braves, he pitched a shutout, allowing five hits with no walks. 

4. Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants

Last Week: No. 5

Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner have nearly identical stats for the season, but Cain gets the edge this week because he pitched better in his most recent start.

However, it should probably be pointed out that Cain faced the Houston Astros. Pitching 7.1 innings, he allowed two runs and six hits. He also walked three batters for just the fourth time in his 26 starts this season.

With a 2.82 ERA, Cain ranks fifth among NL starting pitchers. His 1.02 WHIP is tied for the league lead, while his .223 opponents' batting average is tied for fifth.

Cain's 164 strikeouts are the seventh-best total in the NL, one behind teammate Bumgarner. He's also thrown the fourth-most innings in the league, racking up 182 for the season. 

It's still worth asking whether Cain is the best pitcher in the Giants starting rotation. My instinct is to lean toward Bumgarner. But how each pitcher performs in September will obviously determine that. If both of them continue to pitch well, that will help carry San Francisco to an NL West title. 

3. R.A. Dickey, New York Mets

Last Week: No. 3

R.A. Dickey has given up one run in each of his past two starts. That gives him two total runs allowed over 14 innings to go with eight hits, three walks and eight strikeouts. 

Should we point out that those games were against the Colorado Rockies and Houston Astros? That's probably worth mentioning. But Dickey can only pitch against the teams put against him on the schedule.

Dickey ranks third in the NL with 183 strikeouts and 182.1 innings pitched. His 1.02 WHIP puts him in a four-way tie for the league lead in that category. His .221 opponents' batting average is the NL's fifth-best mark. 

With the Mets now holding fourth place in the NL East, Dickey competing for the NL Cy Young Award is one of the season's remaining highlights. Pitching well through September will not only keep him in contention for the award but it could also earn him a contract extension.

Dickey has a $5 million option for next season, which the Mets will almost certainly pick up. But as ESPN New York's Matt Ehalt reported, general manager Sandy Alderson told season ticket holders that the team intends to sign Dickey (and third baseman David Wright) to long-term extensions.

2. Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds

Last Week: No. 1

Here is this week's biggest change in the NL Cy Young Award rankings, one that will likely provoke some strong debate in the comments.

In his most recent start, Johnny Cueto allowed two runs and four hits over seven innings versus the Arizona Diamondbacks. That gave the Cincinnati Reds ace five consecutive starts in which he's allowed three runs or fewer. He's given up two runs in each of his past three appearances.

That run of success has dropped Cueto's ERA to 2.48, returning him to the NL lead in that category.

His 1.12 WHIP is tied for the fourth-best mark among NL pitchers. His .243 opponents' batting average keeps him out of the league's top 10, but Cueto's game is to let opposing batters hit the ball but keep it on the ground. 

That approach has been the key to Cueto's success pitching in Great American Ball Park, where giving up fly balls can knock a pitcher out of a game quickly. 

FanGraphs' Dave Cameron makes a very convincing argument for Cueto to be the front-runner for the NL Cy Young Award, asserting that he should get the edge due to stranding baserunners better than any starting pitcher in the league.

Cameron thinks Cueto deserves extra credit for his pickoff move, which has thrown seven baserunners out this season.

A few weeks ago, a commenter mentioned Cueto's pickoff as something that should be considered when comparing him to his Cy Young competitors. I dismissed the remark at the time, but maybe I was wrong. Keeping baserunners in check obviously helps keep them from scoring.

So whoever made that comment, please announce yourself this week. You know who you are. This is a mea culpa. 

1. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

Last Week: No. 2

Clayton Kershaw takes over front-runner status in our NL Cy Young Award rankings this week. Could he win the award for the second year in a row?

Yes, he most certainly could. Kershaw ranks sixth in the NL with a 2.85 ERA, but that's the only category in which he trails Johnny Cueto at this point.

Kershaw leads the NL with 192 strikeouts, trailing Detroit Tigers pitchers Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer for the major league lead.

He has a 1.02 WHIP, tied with three other pitchers for the NL's top spot. His .216 opponents' batting average is the second-lowest among the league's starting pitchers. And no NL pitcher has thrown more innings than Kershaw, who's racked up 192.2 so far this season. 

Even after giving up nine hits in his most recent start, on Thursday (Aug. 30), Kershaw still leads the NL with a rate of 6.96 hits allowed per nine innings.

Putting Kershaw in the No. 1 spot is hardly a definitive move. It's an extremely close competition between him and Cueto and should continue to be through September.

Should Kershaw get the nod for allowing a .260 average on batted balls in play (BABIP) compared to Cueto's .291 mark? Or should Cueto get more credit, as Dave Cameron asserts, for stranding 80 percent of runners on base compared to Kershaw's 75 percent?

Not only will we have an exciting race down the stretch between two spectacular pitchers, but this presents a fascinating debate over how pitchers should be judged.

Kershaw profiles as what we traditionally consider a dominant pitcher, striking out and overpowering hitters. But Cueto is just as—if not more—effective in getting batters out by keeping the ball on the ground and stranding them when they do get on base. 

Oh, this is going to be fun to watch—and discuss. Keep the debate going in the comments, people.

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