Predicting the 2012 Buffalo Bills' Defensive Rankings

The Buffalo Bills have made significant defensive changes in the past year. First, they promoted Dave Wannestedt to defensive coordinator. Next, they transitioned from a 3-4/4-3 hybrid to full time 4-3 defense. They also did their part in bringing in three new starters via free agency and the draft: Mario Williams, Mark Anderson and Stephon Gilmore.

After all of the changes, how will the Bills defense fare statistically compared to 2011's team? Unfortunately, we won't know for sure until January, but I'll make predictions and give a brief analysis on why I feel the Bills will improve or decline in certain categories.

Points Per Game

2011: The Buffalo Bills gave up 27.125 points per game. This was good for 29th in the league.

2012 Prediction: The Bills will give up less in 2012. I'll predict the average will drop down to about 20 points per game.

The Bills have the third easiest schedule in the league in 2012. Obviously there is plenty of turnover in the NFL yearly, so some of their opponents may not be as bad as they were in 2011. However, the odds are in the Bills' favor that they won't just win more games this year, but also keep teams in check on the scoreboard.

Look at the quarterbacks the Buffalo Bills will be playing this season:

Mark Sanchez (twice), Matt Cassel, Brandon Weeden, Tom Brady (twice), Alex Smith, John Skelton, Jake Locker, Matt Schaub, Ryan Tannehill (twice), Andrew Luck, Blaine Gabbert, Sam Bradford, Russell Wilson.

Seriously, look at this list over and over again. The Bills are playing many inexperienced or average quarterbacks this season, minus the elite Tom Brady. If the defense does it's job, especially the defensive line providing pressure upon the quarterback, then look for the opposing quarterbacks to make plenty of mistakes.

Bottom line, there is no reason for the Bills defense to give up 27 points per game this season.

Yards Per Game

2011: The Buffalo Bills gave up 350.7 yards per game on average. This ranked as fifth last in the NFL.

2012 Prediction: The Bills will give up 320 yards per game on average.

Almost 60 percent of the league gave up 300-plus yards per game. This statistic is overblown in my opinion, because you can still win plenty of games regardless of the yards you give up on average.

The Detroit Lions were worst in the NFL last year, giving up 428.3 yards per game. Their defense was far from exceptional, but they only allowed 20.7 PPG. Another playoff team, the Baltimore Ravens, also ranked behind Buffalo last season, giving up 369.7 yards per game.

Bottom line, even if the Bills give up 350 yards per game this season, it doesn't mean they can't win.

Sacks

2011: Last season, the Buffalo Bills ended the season with 29 sacks.

2012 Prediction: They will improve significantly from last season's total; I'll go on record to say 40 sacks this season.

The Bills' greatest weakness on defense last season was getting to the quarterback without additional pressure. Enter Mario Williams and Mark Anderson. In 2010, Mario Williams had eight-and-a-half sacks in 13 games as a defensive end. He had previously recorded 35 sacks between 2007-2009. 

Williams requested a move to left defensive end this season, and playing against right tackles should help him end the season with double-digit sacks.

Mark Anderson was a situational pass-rusher in 2011 for the New England Patriots, but he still managed to end the season with 10 sacks. As a starter, it's definitely plausible that Anderson repeats this feat in 2012.

Marcell Dareus had an impressive rookie campaign and finished his season with five-and a-half sacks. I would be disappointed if Dareus didn't improve upon this number in his sophomore season with the upgrades around him.

Kyle Williams only played in five games in 2011 and ended with no sacks. Williams has never gone over five-and-a-half sacks in a season, but he's also never had defensive line mates like he currently has in Buffalo. Williams should be safe for five to six sacks this season.

The Bills' defensive line won't be the only players to record sacks of course, so 40 sacks is absolutely possible this season.

Predicted Sack Leader: Mario Williams with 15 sacks. Williams finishes with the most sacks in his career thus far, just edging out his 2007 campaign. The move to left defensive end and a full and healthy season allows Williams to begin his career with the Bills on a high note.

Interceptions

2011: The Bills ended with 20 interceptions. This was tied for sixth most in the league.

2012 Prediction: The Bills end up with 18 interceptions.

I want to say the Bills end up with more interceptions due to their improved pass rush, but I'm going to say they end up with fewer interceptions in 2012. Twenty interceptions is nothing to scoff at, so I don't feel too bad about saying the Bills finish with less than that amount. Look for Buffalo to come close to 20 interceptions again this year, but just fall short.

Predicted Interception Leader: Jairus Byrd. I think Byrd finishes with eight interceptions. Byrd lives up to his "Ball Hawk" nickname and benefits most from the Bills' upgraded front four. In 2012, look for Jairus Byrd to make it very expensive for the Bills or any team to sign him in the offseason.

Forced Fumbles and Fumble Recoveries

2011: Last season, the Bills were tied for ninth in the NFL with forced fumbles at 17. The team finished seventh in the league with 11 fumble recoveries.

2012: The Bills fared well in both categories in 2011. For the sake of predictions, I'll say the Bills end up with 20 forced forced fumbles and 13 fumble recoveries (good enough for the top 10 in each category). 

Fumbles are a tough category to predict, but I see the Bills improving due to an improved defensive line. As predicted before, I see Buffalo getting to the quarterback a lot more often and in turn, this creates the opportunity for sack fumbles.

Predicted leader in forced fumbles: Mario Williams. My predicted sack leader gets to the quarterback and forces fumbles at the same time.

Predicted leader in fumble recoveries: Marcell Dareus. Truth be told, this is not a category that is easy to predict as fumble recoveries will be spread out over many players. I'll go with Dareus being in the right place at the right time this season.

Bills fans, give your thoughts in the comment sections. Let me know how you think the team does in each category and which players will lead in specific categories!