NL Cy Young Award Rankings: Madison Bumgarner Works His Way Up the Top 5

The race for the NL Cy Young Award has been tight all season long, so it's difficult to say that the competition is getting even closer. 

At this point, a two-man race seems to be developing between Johnny Cueto and Clayton Kershaw for top contender status. But Madison Bumgarner is making a strong charge late in the season, and R.A. Dickey has been a strong candidate throughout the year. 

As we say every week, the list of top NL Cy Young Award candidates could go at least 10 pitchers deep. But we're limiting it to five (or eight, including honorable mentions). Decisions have to be made as to which top pitchers are having truly great seasons and who's just very, very good this year. (Plus, there are other articles to be written today.) 

So in our view, the following five pitchers are the top contenders for the NL Cy Young Award (with three honorable mentions included). Perhaps you disagree as to which pitchers made the cut. That's where your feedback comes in.

Please leave your suggestions and responses in the comments (or reply to me @iancass on Twitter). Your feedback can influence this list each week, and it very often does just that.  

All the statistics mentioned here are current as of Aug. 24.

Honorable Mentions

Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals

It doesn't quite feel right to drop Strasburg out of the top five when he's pitched so well in his past four starts. Over 24 innings, he's allowed four total runs and 12 hits.

During that span, Strasburg has also struck out 29 batters while walking 10. He continues to lead the majors with 183 strikeouts and a rate of 11.3 Ks per nine innings. 

But in trying to look at the total picture, Strasburg has pitched far fewer innings than the other top pitchers in the NL. He averages six innings per start, so he's not a threat to go eight or nine innings like Matt Cain or Clayton Kershaw. 

Then we have the impending innings limit that the Nationals have imposed on Strasburg. At 145.1 innings, he likely has six more starts remaining this season. He could be outstanding in each of those appearances, but pitching in up to four fewer games should be taken into consideration. 

Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies

After throwing two consecutive shutouts, Hamels almost showed some mortality by allowing three runs in each of his past two appearances. What happened to this guy? Well, he's given up three runs or fewer in six consecutive starts. 

Hamels is fourth in the NL with 172 strikeouts. He has the league's ninth-best ERA at 2.99. Both his 1.12 WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched) and .235 opponents' batting average rank in the top 10. And he's second among NL pitchers in innings pitched with 177.1. 

Baseball-Reference rates Hamels as the third-best pitcher in the NL at 4.0 wins above replacement. So does that mean we're ranking him too low here? 

Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals

As with Strasburg, it doesn't feel right dropping Gonzalez to honorable-mention status when he's pitched so well in his past three starts. 

In 20.1 innings, the Nats left-hander has given up six runs. Though 22 hits allowed along with six walks and 14 strikeouts show that Gonzalez hasn't been quite as dominant as he was earlier in the season. 

With 161 strikeouts, a 3.23 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, Gonzalez ranks among the NL's top 10 in each category. Perhaps most impressive is his .214 opponents' batting average, the second-best mark in the league. 

Yet Gonzalez has also pitched far fewer innings than the NL's other top pitchers. With 153.1 innings, he ranks far behind the other pitchers on this list, with the exception of Strasburg. 

Just as an example, Gonzalez has pitched 25.1 fewer innings than Clayton Kershaw. That amounts to four full starts for someone averaging six innings per appearance. 

5. Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants

Last week: Unranked.

In the comments of last week's NL Cy Young Award rankings, it was pointed out that I touted Matt Cain as the front-runner for several weeks. Yet, after dropping out of the top spot, I quickly took him off the list altogether last week. 

Perhaps that was an overreaction in an attempt to give Madison Bumgarner and Cole Hamels more credit as contenders. I'll try to make up for that this week.

Cain has won his past three starts, giving up four runs in 22.1 innings. He allowed 18 hits with 17 strikeouts and walked just one batter. 

That performance has dropped Cain's ERA to 2.83, the sixth-best among NL starting pitchers. His 1.01 WHIP ranks third in the league, while his .223 opponents' batting average is the NL's fifth-best mark.

Since I've been touting innings pitched so far in these rankings, I should also point out that Cain is tied for fifth in the NL with 174.1 innings.

But is he even the best starter on his own team at this point?

4. Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants

Last week: Honorable mention.

Who is the best pitcher in the San Francisco Giants' starting rotation at this point? It's close enough that you could make an argument either way between Madison Bumgarner or Matt Cain.

Both pitchers have a 2.83 ERA. Bumgarner has 160 strikeouts to Cain's 159, but the Giants left-hander has pitched three fewer innings (171.2 to Cain's 174.2). 

With a 0.99 WHIP, Bumgarner leads the NL, though Cain is close behind him with a 1.01 mark. Opponents are batting .218 versus Bumgarner compared to .223 against Cain. 

However, I'm going with Bumgarner over Cain right now.

The 23-year-old southpaw has allowed two runs or fewer in seven of his past eight starts. In four of those appearances, he gave up one run or less. That includes his pitching duel with Clayton Kershaw on Monday (Aug. 20).

Bumgarner pitched eight scoreless innings, allowing only four hits. He struck out 10 batters while walking none, leading the Giants to 2-1 victory over the archrival Dodgers and a 1.5-game lead in the NL West. 

It was a game the Giants needed to win, and Bumgarner had to pitch a nearly perfect game while matched up against the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner. Both feats were accomplished during one of the best pitching performances of the season. 

3. R.A. Dickey, New York Mets

Last week: No. 3.

After giving up five runs and 10 hits in his previous outing, R.A. Dickey rebounded nicely in his most recent appearance. Facing the Colorado Rockies, the Mets knuckleballer allowed one run and three hits over seven innings. 

Amazingly (or perhaps not surprisingly, given the Mets' recent performance), Dickey did not get the win in that ballgame. That's just the latest example of how wins can't be considered an accurate barometer of a pitcher's effectiveness. 

But wins still matter to some fans. Despite not getting a decision for his effort, Dickey still has 15 victories, tied for the second-highest total in the NL.

However, let's look at other numbers.

With 181 strikeouts, Dickey ranks second in the league behind Stephen Strasburg. His 2.82 ERA is the fifth-best among NL starting pitchers. He also places in the league's top five with a 1.03 WHIP, .221 opponents' batting average and 175.1 innings pitched. 

A strong case can also be made for Dickey with WAR. Fangraphs rates him as the fifth-best pitcher in the NL at 4.0 wins above replacement. Baseball-Reference also gives him a 4.0 WAR, but that places him third in their rankings.  

2. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

Last week: No. 2.

We mentioned Clayton Kershaw's Aug. 20 duel with Madison Bumgarner in a previous slide, but let's look at it from the the reigning Cy Young winner's side now. 

Kershaw also pitched eight innings, struck out 10 batters and walked none. Unfortunately for him, he couldn't get Angel Pagan and Pablo Sandoval out in his first six innings of work. Pagan scored both of the runs Kershaw allowed, and Sandoval was the one who drove him in. That was the difference in his pitcher's duel with Bumgarner. 

As CSN Bay Area's Andrew Baggarly reported, Kershaw and Bumgarner gave us some history with their eight-inning standoff. It was the third time in the so-called "live ball" era that two pitchers both struck out 10 batters while walking none. But this ballgame was the first time two left-handed pitchers pulled off the feat. 

With those 10 strikeouts, Kershaw ran his season total up to 175, the third-highest in the NL. His 2.87 ERA places him among the league's top 10 pitchers. His 1.00 WHIP is second only to Bumgarner's 0.99 mark. But the Dodgers southpaw leads the NL with a .213 opponents' batting average. 

Since we've been talking about innings throughout this slideshow, we must point out that Kershaw leads the NL with 187.2 innings pitched. Only Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez have thrown more thus far this season.

1. Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds

Last week: No. 1.

With Clayton Kershaw's stellar effort in his past five starts, it might be expected that he would now be the front-runner for the NL Cy Young Award. Yet the current No. 1 contender has done nothing to lose the top spot in these rankings.

In his past four starts, Johnny Cueto has allowed 15 runs over 30 innings of work. While his 24 strikeouts might not be as impressive compared to the other pitchers in our top five, Cueto asserts himself with his control. He walked five batters during those four appearances. 

By allowing two runs in his most recent start, Cueto pushed his ERA down to 2.47 and regained the NL lead in that category. Despite holding the Philadelphia Phillies to two runs on Thursday (Aug. 23), Cueto pitched only five innings. As the Cincinnati Enquirer's John Fay pointed out, that was Cueto's shortest outing since May 25.

Cueto's consistency has been especially important for the Cincinnati Reds, as the offense has lost two of its prominent bats in Joey Votto and Scott Rolen. Yet the Reds keep chugging along, establishing a 7.5-game lead in the NL Central. That's the largest first-place margin among MLB's six division leaders. 

This sets up an intriguing competition between Cueto and Kershaw for the NL Cy Young Award. Fangraphs rates Kershaw as the best pitcher in the NL at 4.6 wins above replacement. Their system factors FIP (fielding-independent pitching) numbers into its formula. But Baseball-Reference, which weighs ERA more heavily, has Cueto as the NL's top pitcher with a 5.6 WAR. 

Does he ultimately win out because he simply gets hitters out and allows very few runs? Or should Kershaw get the nod because he racks up more strikeouts and profiles as the more dominating pitcher? 

For now, we have Cueto on top. But the race is very close and will stoke plenty of debate through the rest of the regular season. 

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