Rob Gronkowski: Fantasy Draft Value, Red Flags and Predictions for Patriots TE

GRONK SPIKE!

There were whole lot of those in 2011, as Rob Gronkowski went on to have the greatest season for a tight end in NFL history. He set tight-end records for most touchdowns (18) and yards (1,327) in an eye-opening year that made a whole lot of fantasy owners very happy.

Only nine quarterbacks, four running backs and one wide receiver, Calvin Johnson, had more fantasy points than Gronk last season. And fantasy owners have responded, generally taking Gronkowski in fantasy drafts with a second-round pick.

Do you ever remember a tight end being selected in the second round? Heck, have you ever even considered selecting a tight end before round four?

But Gronkowski's 2011 season changed the game. What we'll try to uncover here is whether he is being overvalued this season and is due to see a drop in numbers, or if there is a strong case for why you should be targeting him in the second round.

Fantasy Strengths

Let's presume Gronk replicates his 2011 season. On total fantasy points scored alone, he'll justify a second-round pick.

But even if he sees a drop in production, there's still a chance he'll be a second-round value. Here's why:

Last season, Gronkowski scored 46 more fantasy points than the second-best tight end (Jimmy Graham) and 106 more points than the third-best tight end (Aaron Hernandez). There wasn't another player in fantasy who had that much more value than the other top performers at their position.

Aaron Rodgers was only worth five more points than Drew Brees and 33 more points than Tom Brady and Cam Newton. Ray Rice was only good for 13 more points than LeSean McCoy and 34 more points than Maurice Jones Drew. Calvin Johnson was the closest, scoring 44 more points than Jordy Nelson and 48 more than Wes Welker.

In fantasy baseball, I always try to draft excellent offensive players at traditionally weak positions (shortstop, second base) early in the draft, since those players are rare and other positions have more depth. Why shouldn't that strategy apply in fantasy football as well?

Fantasy Red Flags

There are a few things that could lead to Gronkowski seeing his numbers drop in 2011.

For one, he won't be surprising teams any longer. He'll get banged into off the line, double-covered in the red zone and scouted thoroughly from week to week.

And if you think Tom Brady will simply try to force him the ball no matter what the defense does, think again. Hernandez is unbelievably skilled at the position and was the third-best fantasy tight end last year. Welker will see a ton of touches. The addition of Brandon Lloyd gives Brady yet another toy to play with.

However, unlike some folks, I'm not worried about Gronk's health—the pep is back in his step—or his well-known affection for partying, as all indications are that he's been all business in training camp. He may be a goofball, but he's a professional.

However, I am worried that his numbers will naturally regress and that he's far too overpriced as a second-round pick. In NFL history, a receiver has caught 17 touchdowns or more just 13 times. And since Randy Moss (three) and Jerry Rice (two) did it more than once, just 10 receivers in NFL history ever accomplished the feat.

There's more. Only four players in NFL history (Moss, Rice, Terrell Owens and Marvin Harrison) have ever had more than one season with 15 or more touchdown receptions. And none of them were tight ends. Plus, only Rice (1986 and 1987) ever did it in consecutive seasons.

Gronk proved his talent last season, but for him to even come close to his 2011 touchdown production would be historically epic.

Film Study

GRONK SPIKE!

Draft Day Value

I don't think there's a question that Gronkowski should be the first tight-end selected. If you believe he'll come close to replicating his 2011 numbers, you need to select him in the second round. In ESPN snake drafts, his ADP is 14.8, so he won't last very long.

If you think he's due for a regression in numbers, you're going to have to resign yourself to the fact that you won't be able to draft Gronk this season. You can't spend a second-round pick on a tight end if you have any doubts.

Tweet That Says It All

The following tweet doesn't really have anything to do with Gronk's fantasy value, but nothing I've seen sums up his social life more humorously than a little satire from Sports Pickle: 

"

Rob Gronkowski Announces He's Playing Shirtless This Season - su.pr/3THPr0

— SportsPickle (@sportspickle) August 17, 2012"

Yeah, I LOL'd.

Predictions

Games	Receptions	Yards	TD
16	75	1,100	13

Yes, I think he'll come back to earth in 2012. And yes, I think he'll still have a huge year.

Defenses can do what they like to him in the red zone—he's still going to score his share of touchdowns. He's too big, too strong and too athletic not to be a force in the red zone.

However, I also think he'll catch less passes and accumulate less yards this season. Defenses will make adjustments and the sheer number of weapons in New England should affect his usage. Still, 75 receptions for 1,100 yards and 13 touchdowns is an excellent season, and you could do worse with a second-round pick.

I'd prefer to target him in the third round, but I won't be insulting anyone for taking him in the second, either.

Hit me up on Twitter—my tweets are cracking like a Ronda Rousey armbar.