Jason Varitek: For Better or Worse 2009

In our continuing series of "For Better or Worse 2009" and community projections, I now give you Jason Varitek. To catch up on the rest of the series you may have missed so far, go here.

Outside of the name Mark Teixeira, and albeit for very different reasons, no other name was uttered more this offseason than Jason Varitek.  Now that the captain is back in Boston for at least one, and more likely two seasons, let's put the "should we bring Varitek back talk" behind us and focus on the "now that we know he's here, what do we expect in 2009" talk.

Many people expect that given the Red Sox willingness to walk away from Varitek this offseason, that it is likely that the 2009 season marks the end of Varitek as a full time catcher.  With Josh Bard on board for the upcoming season, some thing it likely that 'Tek may only see 60% of the action this season (320 - 360 at bats). 

While the Red Sox will certainly rest Jason Varitek more this season than only every fifth game when Tim Wakefield is pitching, given Terry Francona's modus operandi with veteran players, I would prepare yourself for 400+ at bats from the captain this season.

In that context, it's going to be nearly impossible for Jason Varitek to have a worse season behind the plate in 2009 than he did in 2008. To put 2008 in perspective, only two catchers in the past ten years have had worse batting averages than Varitek's .220 while still being their teams' full time catchers (as defined by 400+ at bats). In 2006, Yadier Molina hit .216 for the St. Louis Cardinals and in 1998, Charles Johnson hit .218 between the Florida Marlins and Los Angeles Dodgers.

Looking at the major projections systems, you can see that even with the limited offense expected from Varitek this season, none expect him to be as bad as he was at the plate in 2008.

I know, it is a little depressing to be getting excited about seeing a .230/15/50 line out of a starter in your lineup.  But to be fair, offensive production from major league catchers isn't far off of that mark across the league.  League average for catchers over 162 games in 2008 was .255/.324/.389 with 15 home runs and 74 RBI.  While Varitek is below average, he's not hurting the team too drastically compared to league average for his position.

As we've done for a few other positions in our "For Better or Worse" analyses, its important to look at the full compliment of at bats that a "position" will field over the course of 162 games where there is likely to be split duty.

At the catcher position, if you thought that Jason Varitek's numbers last year were bad, when you bundle in the offensive juggernaut that was Kevin Cash, the collective catchers for the home town team last year actually got worse.  If you can believe it, Varitek outperformed Cash in every offensive category of note last season.  Red Sox catchers last year put up the second worst collective OPS (.650) and the worst collective batting average (.218) in the American League last season.  The only lower OPS in the A.L. came from the Posada-less New York Yankees (.625).

We'll get to Josh Bard and the other bench players later in our "For Better or Worse" series, but I'll leave you with this; even if Varitek plays the exact same amount of time, and as poorly as he did last season, the upgrade of Kevin Cash to Josh Bard will make the Red Sox a collectively better offensive team from the catcher position.

I don't think anyone will pull community projections for Jason Varitek with a .260+ batting average or 20+ home runs, but I do think that Jason Varitek will be able to climb over the bar he set so low last season.