Breaking Down Potential Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays Wild-Card Playoff

It's not a shock that the Tampa Bay Rays are leading the American League wild-card race at the moment. They've become a postseason regular since 2008, and they're playing at full strength for the first time in a long time now that Evan Longoria is back off the disabled list.

The true surprise concerning the AL wild-card race is that the Baltimore Orioles are still hanging around. Given their lack of quality starting pitching, their unpredictable offense and the level of competition in the AL East, they should have fallen off the pace months ago. 

It's obviously not a given that things will stay the way they are in the final weeks of the 2012 season, but the Orioles and Rays would be the AL's two wild-card winners if the season ended today. They would have the honor of playing the AL's very first wild-card play-in game.

If it comes to that, which team will have the edge?

Now that's a question that requires a discussion. Here's a look at how these two teams match up.

Note: All stats come from Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Matchup of Aces: Wei-Yin Chen vs. David Price

Wei-Yin Chen

Baltimore's starting pitching has been an adventure this season, but Buck Showalter generally doesn't have to worry when Wei-Yin Chen is on the mound. He has a respectable 3.79 ERA, and he's given up three earned runs or fewer in 17 of his 23 starts.

However, Chen is prone to the occasional lousy performance. He's had five starts this season in which he's given up at least five earned runs, and he's also had four starts in which he's given up multiple home runs. And though his control is generally good, Chen has had eight starts in which he's walked at least three.

As good as Chen is, he's no ace.

David Price

David Price, on the other hand, is an ace. One of the best in the American League, in fact.

Price ranks third in the AL with an ERA of 2.50, and he's also tied with Jered Weaver for first in the league in wins with 15. He has a way of limiting hard contact, as his .324 opponents' slugging percentage is the fifth-lowest mark among all qualified major league pitchers.

And Price is nothing if not a workhorse. He's seventh in the AL with 155 innings pitched, and has lasted at least seven innings in each of his last 10 starts.

Advantage: Price

Other Potential Starting Pitching Matchups

Jason Hammel vs. James Shields

Hammel was having a better season than any other Orioles starter before he got hurt, posting an 8-6 record and a 3.54 ERA in 18 starts. The club's official site claims that he could return from knee surgery in early September, which would give him plenty of time to shake the rust off before having to worry about a potential start against the Rays in a one-game playoff.

Shields hasn't been nearly as good in 2012 as he was in 2011, when he went 16-12 with a 2.82 ERA and 11 complete games. Shields is coming around, though, as he has a 1.13 ERA and a .123 opponents' batting average over 24 innings in his last three starts.

If Joe Maddon has to pick somebody other than Price to start the wild-card play-in game, it's a good bet that he'll turn to Shields over Alex Cobb, Matt Moore and Jeremy Hellickson.

Advantage: Shields

Miguel Gonzalez vs. Matt Moore

If Buck Showalter isn't able to start Chen or Hammel against the Rays, he won't exactly have a long list of options to choose from. Given the ever-changing state of Baltimore's rotation, he'll have to go with the hot hand.

Right now, that's Miguel Gonzalez. He has a decent 4.17 ERA in six starts since the All-Star break, but that figure is skewed by the seven earned runs he gave up in 2.2 innings against the Rays on July 25. He hasn't allowed any more than four earned runs in any of his other five starts since the break.

He's no Matt Moore, though. Moore is having a merely decent season at first glance, but he's been one of the Rays' best pitchers since the break, posting a 4-1 record and a 1.47 ERA in five starts. 

He proved last year that he can handle postseason duty, so Maddon won't hesitate to turn to Moore if he can't start Price or Shields.

Advantage: Moore

Infield vs. Infield

Catcher: Matt Wieters vs. Jose Molina

Wieters has taken a slight step back this season, but the Orioles will gladly take his .751 OPS and his excellent defensive skills behind the plate.

Molina is also a good defensive catcher, and he calls a very good game. Unfortunately, his .558 OPS is liable to give you a headache if you stare at it for too long.

Advantage: Wieters

First Base: Mark Reynolds vs. Carlos Pena

It makes sense that Mark Reynolds would have over 100 strikeouts by now. What doesn't make sense is that he would have only nine home runs and 35 RBI. His power has been strangely nonexistent, and he's also a defensive liability at first base.

Pena has struck out even more than Reynolds this season, as he's whiffed 140 times in just over 400 at-bats. It's a good thing he's still managed to hit 15 home runs and drive in 46 runs, and he's also still a very good defensive first baseman.

Advantage: Pena

Second Base: Omar Quintanilla vs. Ryan Roberts

Quintanilla has been getting the bulk of the playing time at second base for the Orioles lately, and why not? He's hitting .328 with an .815 OPS since the break.

Roberts, meanwhile, has taken up everyday duties at second base with Jeff Keppinger moving over to third. Alas, he's been even worse with the Rays than he was with the Diamondbacks before they cut him loose.

Advantage: Quintanilla

Third Base: Manny Machado vs. Evan Longoria

We're still talking about a very small sample size, but Machado has been very impressive since the O's called him up late last week. He has six hits in 16 at-bats, including three homers and seven RBI.

Longoria has been eased back into action as Tampa Bay's DH since his return, but one assumes he'll end up back at the hot corner eventually. He's been just OK since his return, but he still has a .911 OPS for the season and remains one of the game's best defensive third baseman when he's healthy.

Advantage: Longoria

Shortstop: J.J. Hardy vs. Ben Zobrist

Like Wieters, Hardy has also taken a step back this season, as he has just 16 homers and a .645 OPS a year after hitting 30 home runs with an .801 OPS. He's still an above-average defensive shortstop, however.

It's looking like Zobrist is going to handle everyday duty at shortstop the rest of the season, as playing him at short allows Joe Maddon to field his best offensive lineup on a daily basis. Zobrist is having a sneaky-good offensive season with an .826 OPS, and he can hold his own at short defensively.

Advantage: Zobrist

Designated Hitter: Chris Davis vs. Luke Scott

Davis has proven to be quite a find, as he has a .738 OPS and 18 home runs on the season. He strikes out a lot and doesn't walk much, but he tends to hit mistakes a long way.

Scott is currently on the DL with an oblique injury, but he should be healthy sometime in September. His .716 OPS isn't that far off from Davis' OPS, and he was just starting to heat up when he got hurt. 

Advantage: Davis

Outfield vs. Outfield

Left Field: Lew Ford vs. Desmond Jennings

There's no telling who's going to be patrolling left field for the Orioles on a given day, but Lew Ford has gotten the bulk of the playing time recently. He's basically useless as a hitter, but he is an above-average defensive left fielder.

Jennings is also an above-average left fielder, and his .707 OPS, nine homers and 21 stolen bases all make him a considerable upgrade over Ford offensively.

Advantage: Jennings

Center Field: Adam Jones vs. B.J. Upton

Jones has tailed off after starting the season on fire, as he only has five homers and 17 RBI since the start of July. He's still a dangerous offensive threat, but he needs to work on his defense in center field.

Upton is finally starting to get it going at the plate these days. After hitting just seven homers in the first half of the season, he already has six in the second half. He's not a great defensive player, but he's good enough.

Advantage: Jones

Right Field: Nick Markakis vs. Matt Joyce

Markakis is having one of his best offensive seasons in 2012. He has an .829 OPS and 13 homers, numbers that are boosted by his .897 OPS and five homers since the break. He won a Gold Glove last season, but he actually rates as a below-average defensive right fielder. Per FanGraphs, both his UZR and DRS are in the red.

Joyce has been a steady offensive presence from the left side of the plate for the Rays ever since they picked him up in 2010. He has an .867 OPS this season to go along with 14 home runs in just 280 at-bats. He actually checks out as a better defensive right fielder than Markakis.

Advantage: Joyce

Benches

Orioles

The bodies are constantly moving on Baltimore's bench, but one guy who has taken up a permanent residence on the bench in recent days is Wilson Betemit. He has his shortcomings as a player, but a lot of managers would love to have a switch hitter with power who can play on the corners and in the outfield.

Showalter will also have two versatile outfielders in Lew Ford and Nate McLouth at his disposal, as well as a super utility man in Robert Andino, who has a knack for clutch hits.

Rays

Now that Sam Fuld is back, Maddon finally has an outfielder that he can plug into all three outfield spots. Fuld is also useful as a pinch-runner, as he's stolen 23 bases over the last two seasons in limited playing time.

On a given day, Maddon will also have a handful of versatile infielders in Jeff Keppinger, Elliot Johnson and Sean Rodriguez to pick and choose from. Keppinger is the most likely of the three to start, however, as he's hitting over .300 with an .809 OPS this season.

Advantage: Rays (very slight)

Team Defense

Orioles

Defense is not Baltimore's specialty. The O's rank dead last in the majors with 89 errors, and they're tied with the Padres for last in the majors with a .980 fielding percentage.

The advanced stats don't favor the Orioles either. According to FanGraphs, the team boasts a collective UZR of -31.8 and a DRS of -24.

Jones can make the occasional great play in center field, but he rates as a below-average defensive center fielder. Markakis can make plays with his arm, but he's not the rangiest right fielder in the game.

But things are particularly bad on Baltimore's infield. Hardy is really good, but he's surrounded by an amateur third baseman in Machado, a revolving door of second basemen and a first baseman in Reynolds, who is playing the position on a full-time basis for the first time in his career.

Rays

The Rays have also struggled with errors this season, making 82 of them and posting an unspectacular .981 fielding percentage.

These numbers are slightly misleading, however. According to FanGraphs, the Rays have a positive UZR, and they're tied for sixth in MLB with a DRS of +24.

This can be chalked up to Joe Maddon's constant use of defensive shifts, which work more than you probably think. His fielders have not been sure-handed, but they've had a tendency to be in the right place at the right time.

Having Longoria back will help Tampa Bay's infield defense, as they'll have two above-average defensive players at the corners with him and Carlos Pena.

Maddon is not going to have a great defensive outfield no matter who he puts out there, but he can make it better by choosing to play Ben Zobrist in right field. Zobrist has a 10.4 UZR and a +9 DRS in right this season.

Advantage: Rays

Bullpens

Orioles

The O's may not have a great starting rotation, but their bullpen is a big reason they're still in the race after all this time. It's one of the best in the league.

O's relievers have a 2.99 ERA, which ranks second in the AL behind the Oakland A's. Jim Johnson is one of the league's top closers, as he's second in the AL with 34 saves and is holding opponents to a .309 slugging percentage.

The bridge to Johnson is very strong. Pedro Strop has a 1.22 ERA in 50 appearances, and Luis Ayala, Troy Patton and Darren O'Day each have ERAs under 3.00 and respectable WHIPs. 

The longer a given game lasts, the more likely the O's are to win it. They're 12-2 in extra-inning games this season, and that's thanks in large part to their bullpen.

Rays

The National League has Aroldis Chapman and Craig Kimbrel. The American League has Fernando Rodney.

Rodney has been the AL's best closer this season, saving 37 games in 38 chances with an 0.82 ERA and a 0.76 WHIP. He's holding hitters to a .177 average and has given up only two home runs all season.

Joel Peralta doesn't boast a sparkly ERA, but he does rank second in the AL with 28 holds and fourth with a 0.86 WHIP.

J.P. Howell and Jake McGee are two of the best lefty relievers in the AL.

The thing to keep in mind about these two bullpens is that Tampa Bay's has had to work over 50 fewer innings than Baltimore's. The Rays' relievers will be fresher in early October.

Advantage: Rays (slight)

Managers

Buck Showalter

It's hard to assess just how well a given manager is performing as there are a lot of things to take into account, and at the end of the day it's all nonsense anyway because managers aren't the ones throwing the pitches or swinging the bats.

But it doesn't take a genius to tell that Buck Showalter has worked miracles with the Orioles this season, and there actually is a stat that can illustrate the point.

Per Baseball-Reference.com, Baltimore's Pythagorean record (basically what their record should be) is 52-63. They should be 11 games under .500.

They're 62-53, nine games over .500.

That's all Showalter's doing. To say he's done more with less doesn't cut it. He's done a lot with less.

Joe Maddon

Baseball-Reference.com tells us that Tampa Bay's Pythagorean record is 63-52.

Their actual record is, of course, 63-52. Joe Maddon's club has basically performed as expected this season.

This is not to take anything away from the job he's done, however, as he's been forced to tackle much of the season without his best player. The Rays also had to account for disappointing performances from James Shields and Matt Moore in the first half.

Besides which, Maddon has a well-earned reputation for being the most hands-on manager in MLB. He's also one of the best motivators in the league. He's not unlike Showalter in that regard, though Maddon certainly prefers to keep things a lot looser in his clubhouse.

Advantage: Maddon

Home-Field Advantage

Orioles

The Orioles actually don't do all that well at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, and this has much to do with their pitching.

On the road, O's pitchers have an ERA of 3.80 and they hold opposing hitters to a .700 OPS. At home, they have a 4.36 ERA and hitters have a .767 OPS against them.

This offsets the fact that the Orioles are a much better offensive team at home than they are on the road, which in turn helps explain why the O's are only 30-28 in 58 home games this season.

But again, it's not a good idea to engage the O's in close games, especially when they're the home team. They have a 22-6 record in one-run games, and they can easily grab runs when they need them at home by hitting balls over the fence. Of their 143 total home runs, 81 have come at home.

Rays

The Rays don't dominate at Tropicana Field, but one thing they definitely do well at home is pitch.

At home, Rays pitchers have a 2.96 ERA and have limited hitters to a .637 OPS. David Price is particularly lethal at home, as he has a 1.82 ERA in 11 starts at Tropicana Field.

However, the Rays also struggle to score runs on their own turf, averaging only 3.8 runs per game at home as opposed to about 4.5 runs per game on the road. They need good pitching when they play in front of their own fans.

The key difference between Camden Yards and Tropicana Field is that Tropicana Field has more idiosyncrasies that can affect the outcome of a given game. A popup that clanks off a catwalk could turn into a single instead of an out.

Tropicana Field's bullpens are also a hazard, as they're just outside the foul lines on either side of the field.

Advantage: Rays

And the Overall Edge Goes To...

The Orioles deserve this much credit: They're a better offensive team than the Rays. They have a lot of inconsistent hitters, but their lineup is fairly deep and they're very much capable of exploding on a good day.

But even that advantage is a slight one, and the Rays are a better team than the Orioles in just about every other aspect of the game. Their pitching is significantly better, they play better defense, they take care of business at home, their manager is a bigger difference-maker and so on.

From where I'm sitting, the pitching advantage the Rays have is the kicker. The Orioles have been able to survive this season despite their poor pitching, but they'll be totally overmatched in a one-game playoff against pitchers like David Price, James Shields and Matt Moore. Nobody the Orioles have in their rotation can dominate like the three of them are capable of.

So if it does end up coming down to a matchup between the Orioles and Rays in the end, the Rays should win.

Verdict: Rays

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