Breaking Down Each MLB Wild Card Contender's Chances in a One-Game Playoff

If there is one thing that baseball has taught us, it's that you can never take anything for granted. Just because a team sits atop a division with a month left in the season doesn't necessarily mean that they will find themselves in the same position when the season ends.

But since we can't predict the future (if you can, get a hold of me—I've got a couple of questions, the first being what tomorrow's winning Mega Millions numbers will be), we have to deal in the present. As it stands now, 10 teams are in the running for a wild-card spot.

My definition of "in the running" is simple: a team must be within eight games of a wild-card spot and not be a current division leader—even though any of the teams could find themselves in the wild-card game.

Like I said, you can never take anything for granted.

With that in mind, who do those 10 teams want to meet in the wild-card game, and who starts said game?

What teams do they want to avoid like the plague?

It's breakdown time.

Let's get to it.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Wild Card Starter: Wade Miley (12-8, 3.02 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 6.50 K/9)

Of the teams in contention for a wild-card-spot, the Diamondbacks want absolutely nothing to do with the Cardinals, who have outscored the D-Backs 22 to 9 over the three games they've played this season. Atlanta, who has won five of the seven meetings against Arizona, would also be someone they'd like to avoid.

So who would be their preferred opponent in a one-game playoff? The Los Angeles Dodgers, who they own an 8-4 record against in 12 games—including a three-game sweep in Dodger Stadium at the trade deadline.

Arizona's unlikely ace on the season, Wade Miley, has started three of those games: winning two while pitching to a 2.53 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and striking out 16 Dodgers in just over 21 innings of work.

Of course, the Dodgers would likely counter with Cy Young candidate Clayton Kershaw, who, while his 1-1 record and 3.65 ERA against Arizona this season is pretty pedestrian, has held the Diamondbacks' offense to a .209/.292/.279 batting line over 12 innings—more in line with what we expect from Kershaw.

That being said, Arizona has a pretty potent lineup—their 524 runs scored rank fourth in the National League, one behind the Rockies—and they've beaten the Dodgers by an average score of 5 to 3.

Against the Dodgers, the Diamondbacks would have a fighting chance to advance to the next round.

Atlanta Braves

Wild Card Starter: Tim Hudson (11-4, 3.77 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 5.55 K/9)

While the Braves sit with a .500 record or better against the other wild-card contenders in the National League—and they have a better record (5-1) against the Cardinals than anyone else—the Diamondbacks would be their most favorable opponents. They've only outscored St. Louis by eight runs in their games, while they hold a 23-run advantage against the D-Backs.

As for who should start the game, it really comes down to either Tommy Hanson or Tim Hudson, and the wily veteran gets the nod. Hudson threw eight innings of one-run ball against Arizona on June 26, striking out seven. His only blemish was a third inning home run hit by Jason Kubel.

Atlanta's only loss to Arizona came early in the season on April 22, when Ian Kennedy held them to three runs over seven innings of work while Randall Delgado allowed five runs in five innings.

The Braves are a team that nobody wants to play in the wild-card round—and they would find themselves in good shape against anyone who they might be paired up against.

Baltimore Orioles

Wild Card Starter: Wei-Yin Chen (10-7, 3.79 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 7.33 K/9)

Arguably the most unlikely playoff contender in the American League, the Orioles want absolutely nothing to do with the other teams in contention for a wild-card spot with one exception—the Oakland A's, another surprising contender.

While the Orioles have a .500 record and only hold a four-run advantage in the six games that the teams have played head-to-head, Wei-Yin Chen has shown the ability to shut down the A's offense. Over 12 innings of work against Oakland, Chen has only allowed nine hits and one earned run, striking out 16.

Against the Orioles, the A's would probably trot 39-year-old right-hander Bartolo Colon out to the mound, both for his postseason experience and his success against the crab cake lovers from Maryland.

In two games against Baltimore this season, Colon has allowed only two earned runs, posting a 1.14 ERA and WHIP while striking out 10 in 14 innings of work. Orioles batters have only been able to muster a .259/.286/.315 batting line against him, with only three extra-base hits (all doubles).

Baltimore is a great story this season, and I am a firm believer that Buck Showalter deserves the AL Manager of the Year award whether they make the playoffs or not. That being said, a matchup against anyone besides the A's doesn't bode well for the Orioles being able to extend their season.

Boston Red Sox

Wild Card Starter: Josh Beckett (5-9, 4.97 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 6.67 K/9)

I'm including the Red Sox because they fall under the guidelines I set forth in the opening slide; but with that said, I think there is far too much dysfunction in their clubhouse for them to make a serious push for a playoff spot.

Were the Sox able to make it into the wild-card, there is only one team that they want to face—their division rivals, the revitalized Tampa Bay Rays. As for who should start the biggest game of the season, it falls on the shoulders of a man who has a reputation for coming through in big games—the oft-maligned Josh Beckett.

There is no question that Beckett has had an awful season, but for whatever reason, he has thrown like the Josh Beckett of old against the Rays, winning two of his three starts against them. He's held the Rays to six earned runs over 21 innings of work, posting a 2.57 ERA and 0.95 WHIP while striking out 13.

None of Tampa's starters have done particularly well against the Red Sox this season, but Rays' skipper Joe Maddon would turn to his ace, David Price, for a one-game matchup. In three starts against Boston this season, Price is 1-1 with a 3.65 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and has struck out 16 over 17 innings of work.

When push comes to shove, Boston's offense is far more potent than that of the Rays, and that would give them the edge.

Detroit Tigers

Wild Card Starter: Justin Verlander (12-7, 2.46 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 8.91 K/9)

While the Tigers would pose a formidable opponent to any of the teams in the running for a wild-card spot in the American League, they match up best against the Tampa Bay Rays—a team they've beaten in five of the seven games that they have played each other in this season.

As for who would start the game, it goes without saying that Justin Verlander would be on the hill for Detroit. You simply don't sit the best pitcher in baseball when the season is on the line, even with his struggles against the Rays in 2012.

Verlander has lost both of his starts against Tampa in 2012, posting a very un-Verlander-like 5.02 ERA. His 15 strikeouts and 0.91 WHIP over 14 innings of work, however, are more in line with what we've come to expect when he takes the mound.

As with the Red Sox, Tampa would counter with David Price, who held the Tigers to two runs and five hits over seven innings on June 29. Delmon Young's fifth inning solo-shot and a seventh inning groundout by Prince Fielder accounted for the only runs he'd allow.

With the way that Detroit has been playing of late coupled with Verlander's brilliance, it's hard to pick them as an underdog against anyone that they might face in the wild-card game.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Wild Card Starter: Jered Weaver (15-2, 2.22 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 6.91 K/9)

For as much talent as the Angels have, they've found the going tough against the other wild-card contenders in the AL this season—except for the Baltimore Orioles, who they have beaten seven of the nine times that they have played, outscoring the birds by 31.

My pick for the AL Cy Young Award this season, Jered Weaver, has been lights out in the three starts that he's made against Baltimore this season: winning all three while posting a 1.52 ERA and a ridiculous 0.67 WHIP.

Orioles' batters have managed to put up a putrid .171/.200/.256 batting line against Weaver, who threw eight innings of shutout ball against them when they last met on July 7.

It wouldn't matter whether Baltimore countered Weaver with either Wei-Yin Chen or Jason Hammel, as both pitchers have been shelled by the Angels' offense this season.

Against the Orioles, the Angels would be the unquestioned favorite to advance. Against anyone else, they could have a fight on their hands, one that they may not be equipped to win.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Wild Card Starter: Clayton Kershaw (10-6, 2.88 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 8.69 K/9)

There is only one team that the Dodgers want to face in the wild-card game—the upstart Pittsburgh Pirates, who they have beaten all three times they've faced them in 2012. And there's only one pitcher that they want on the mound—their ace, Clayton Kershaw.

Kershaw was excellent in his lone start against the Bucs back on April 10, throwing seven innings of one-run ball and scattering four hits while striking out seven.

Pittsburgh has options when it comes to starters. Erik Bedard was a hard-luck loser against the Dodgers on April 11, allowing two runs over five innings, and Wandy Rodriguez shut the Dodgers down in a 12-0 rout as a member of the Astros on April 22.

But the choice for Pittsburgh would be A.J. Burnett, who at 14-4 with a 3.32 ERA has unquestionably been the ace of their staff this season.

No matter who the Dodgers would face in a one-game playoff, they would have a fight on their hands. While they have considerable talent, they simply haven't been overpowering teams as of late—and in a close game, anything can happen.

Oakland A's

Wild Card Starter: Jarrod Parker (7-6, 3.55 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 7.10 K/9)

Another team that virtually nobody considered to be a contender heading into the season, the A's are alive and well in the postseason chase. While they have proven to be able to hang with the Angels, Orioles and Tigers, Oakland's dream date in the wild-card game would be the Boston Red Sox.

You could make a case for Bartolo Colon or Brandon McCarthy to start this game, but I give the nod to their future ace, 23-year-old Jarrod Parker.

Parker has faced Boston twice this season, holding their high-powered offense to only two runs over 13 innings of work, walking five while striking out seven.

Boston would likely counter with Jon Lester, who kept the A's bats at bay on July 3, scattering four hits over nearly seven innings of work, allowing only one run while striking out nine.

Nobody can figure out how Oakland continues to remain in the race—and therefore, nobody wants a piece of them in the playoffs.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Wild Card Starter: A.J. Burnett (14-4, 3.32 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 7.74 K/9)

The Pirates sit on the verge of ending a 20 year run of futility, and while simply making the wild-card game would be an achievement in itself, the Bucs have their sights set on making a run in the playoffs. To achieve that goal, they'll want to meet the Diamondbacks in the wild-card game—and avoid the Dodgers at all costs.

A.J. Burnett has been the Pirates' unquestioned ace this season, even when you take James McDonald's ridiculous first half of the season into account. Burnett has the best pure stuff of any pitcher in their rotation, and his experience pitching in big games with the Marlins and Yankees can only lend itself to success for the Pirates.

Arizona would bring Wade Miley to the dance, as he allowed six hits and an unearned run over six innings last Monday against the Pirates.

Like the Braves, nobody really wants to play the Pirates in the playoffs. There may not be a hungrier team in baseball, and with Andrew McCutchen—the prohibitive favorite to win the NL MVP award—sitting in the middle of their lineup, who can blame them?

St. Louis Cardinals

Wild Card Starter: Jake Westbrook (12-8, 3.62 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 5.65 K/9)

As long as their opponent in the wild-card game isn't the Braves, the Cardinals would be feeling pretty confident heading into any matchup—but the Diamondbacks would be their ideal opponent, and Jake Westbrook their ideal starter.

Westbrook has never lost a game to Arizona since joining the Cardinals in 2010, posting a 3-0 record, 1.66 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over 21 innings of work and sending 17 D-Backs down on strikes.

Don't think that we are the only people who know that he's kept Arizona's bats silent—the Diamondbacks know it as well, and you can't understate what sort of psychological advantage that gives the Cardinals.

Since Ian Kennedy, Joe Saunders and Wade Miley all got tattooed by the Cards earlier this season, maybe Trevor Cahill would have better luck keeping the game close for Arizona.

The Cardinals are a dangerous team with a potent offense—while the Dodgers and Pirates have played them tough and the Braves have won five of the six games in which the two teams have met, it's hard to imagine that anyone is excited about taking on St. Louis in a one-game playoff.

Tampa Bay Rays

Wild Card Starter: James Shields (10-7, 4.02 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 8.5 K/9)

While the Rays have come out on top in five of the six games in which they've faced the Angels, the A's, against whom they have a .500 record, would be the team that they want to meet in a one-game playoff.

In the biggest game of the season, it shouldn't be surprising that "Big Game" James Shields would toe the rubber for Joe Maddon and the Rays—especially against the A's, who Shields threw a three-hit, complete game shutout against on July 31, striking out 11.

Oakland's Brandon McCarthy would be Oakland's pick to oppose Shields in a one-game playoff. While McCarthy has not faced Tampa Bay in 2012, he has had success against them throughout his career, posting a 2.98 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in nine games (eight starts).

With two teams who are very similar meeting with the season on the line, this matchup could produce one of the best games of the season.