Boston Red Sox: Jon Lester's Dominant Performance Won't Be a Fluke

A gem of an outing from Jon Lester on Sunday against the Cleveland Indians is exactly what the Boston Red Sox have been waiting for all season long, but can he repeat it to a degree?

Jon Lester has been about as average as can be atop the Boston starting rotation, and downright awful at times. He’s been the complete opposite of the definition on an “ace.” Now maybe Lester isn’t Boston’s “ace” and maybe he just is their No. 1 starter, but that’s beside the point.

The point is that Lester was a completely different guy on the mound on Sunday and that’s a very good sign going forward. He has great command over all of his pitching during a six-inning outing where he only allowed one run on three hits and struck out 12. The 12 strikeouts is a season-high for the lefty and it was arguably the most meaningful start of the year for him.

The problem with Lester is that he’s been wildly inconsistent throughout the entire season. Some starts he’ll keep the Red Sox in the game and others he’ll completely fall apart. He’s allowed at least four earned runs on 11 occasions this year.

Lester’s still technically Boston’s top pitcher if you’re looking at WAR, but that’s not saying much since no other pitcher has been that great either. His FIP of 4.06 is average and so is his 3.72 xFIP. He’s been giving up plenty of runs and allowing a lot of runners to reach base.

This start against the Indians is exactly what he needed to change his and potentially the franchise’s season around.

“To pitch well and get a win is something that could get him on a roll, said Bobby Valentine via the Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham. “That’s what we need. The answer is to get him some runs. Get them early and get them often. He’s pitched a lot of close games where we haven’t scored a lot of runs.”

Lester is coming off of a season-worst month of July where he went 0-3 in five starts with an ERA over 9.00. In the two other outings he’s pitched in August thus far, he pitched great against the Minnesota Twins, but took the loss. He also pitched OK against the Texas Rangers, but again took the loss.

The Red Sox are very far away from a playoff spot, but even if they don’t make it to the postseason, getting Lester on the right track is essential to making the playoffs in 2013. Boston and Lester have to look at this season like a fluke, something that happened by chance and will probably never happen again; not something that is going to reoccur.

For Lester’s career, he usually pitches best during the middle of the season, but doesn’t pitch poorly late in the season either. He’s been good in August, but very good in September/October in several advanced categories such as FIP, xFIP, K/9 and many more. This definitely something to look for—or look forward to seeing—from Lester in his upcoming starts.

Lester has been down in the dumps ever since the end of last season, but needs to get on the right track if he’s ever going to be a successful pitcher again. This latest start should get him on that track.

Lester’s next start is scheduled to come against the rival New York Yankees, a true test to see if this start meant anything or if Lester will continue to pitch poorly for the rest of the season.

The actual game may not mean much in the standings, but this could be one of the biggest starts of Jon Lester’s career. If he pitches well, good things should follow. If not, we could be in for a very bumpy ride for the remainder of his contract with the Red Sox.