Predicting the Top 5 Candidates for 2013 Rookie of Year for Each League

While Mike Trout has already run away with the American League Rookie of the Year award, the race in the National League is much closer.

The fan favorite, Bryce Harper, came up and immediately melted fans’ faces, but after batting .22 in July, he’s seen his overall slash line drop to .254/.330/.415.

Furthermore, Harper’s recent struggles have opened the door for other Rookie of the Year candidates in Zack Cozart (1.9 fWAR), Todd Frazier (1.7 fWAR), Wilin Rosario (1.1 fWAR), Anthony Rizzo (0.9 fWAR), Mike Fiers (2.8 fWAR) and Wade Miley (3.2 fWAR).

And now, over the final two months of the season, baseball fans will receive a taste of the future, as more prospects will be recalled when the rosters expand in September. Most of these players won’t reach the 50 innings pitched or 130 at-bats to lose their rookie status, and therefore, will be in the mix for their league’s respective Rookie of the Year award in 2013.

So, as we look towards next season, here are five prospects from each league who will contend for a Rookie of the Year award.

A.L.: Nick Castellanos, 3B/RF, Detroit Tigers

Position: 3B                       

Height/Weight: 6'4", 210

DOB: 3/4/1992 (Age: 20)                        

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Signed: 2010, first round (HS: Archbishop McCarthy, Fla.)

2012 Stats

High-A: .405/.461/.553, 23 XBH (17 2B), 32 RBI, 42 K/22 BB (55 G)

Double-A: .298/.312/.436, 18 XBH (6 HR), 19 RBI, 49 K/5 BB (54 G)

A first-round selection in 2010, Castellanos is hands down the Tigers’ top hitting prospect. After an anemic start to the 2011 season at Low-A, he went on to slash .312/.367/.436 while playing in 135 games.

Even though he swatted only seven home runs, the right-handed hitter did tally 36 doubles. Given his ability to barrel up the baseball, adding a little loft to his swing should yield more home runs. He still strikes out too often, although it has continued to improve.

Castellanos is still learning how to play at third, but his range, instincts and above-average arm work well there. He’s tall (6'4") with wiry strength and lots of room to fill out, and having such a phenomenal season only raises his ceiling. Blocked at third base in Detroit by Miguel Cabrera, Castellanos has been playing right field exclusively since early July.

Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski has even hinted that if it makes sense and he can help the club, he wouldn’t hesitate to call him up in September.

A.L.: Wil Myers, OF, Kansas City Royals

Position: OF                       

Height/Weight: 6'3", 205

DOB: 12/10/1990 (Age: 21)            

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Signed: 2009, third round (HS: Wesleyan Academy, N.C.)

2012 Stats

Double-A: .343/.414/.731, 25 XBH (13 HR), 30 RBI, 42 K/16 BB (35 G)

Triple-A: .293/.375/.572, 37 XBH (20 HR), 63 RBI, 81 K/36 BB (75 G)

Since entering the Royals' system in 2009, Wil Myers has raked at every stop—excluding his injury-plagued 2011 campaign. Exploding from an upright, balanced stance, the right-handed hitter has quick wrists with outstanding bat control as well as plate coverage that allows him to effortlessly drive the ball to all fields. He has considerably more power to the pull side but keeps his weight back long enough to still jump the yard to the opposite field.

Although Myers’ plate discipline is advanced and he’s comfortable hitting any pitch in any count, he can be over-aggressive at times and chase too many pitcher’s pitches. He’ll be nothing more than an average defensive outfielder, although the plus arm that made him a highly-touted catching prospect is still there.

Myers is close—extremely close—to a big-league call-up. He’s been knocking on the door all season and, despite Jeff Francoeur's struggles and Lorenzo Cain’s clean bill of health, may force the Royals’ hand very soon. He's such a pure hitter that his adaptation to major league pitching should be smooth. Expect Myers to drive in plenty of runs from the middle of the Royals' order in 2013.

A.L.: Danny Hultzen, LHP, Seattle Mariners

Position: LHP                       

Height/Weight: 6'3", 200

DOB: 11/28/1989 (Age: 22)           

Bats/Throws: L/L

Drafted/Signed: 2011, first round (Virginia)

2012 Stats

Double-A: 8-3, 75.1 IP, 1.19 ERA, 2.84 FIP, .151 BAA, 79 K/32 BB (13 GS)

Triple-A: 1-2, 32.2 IP, 5.23 ERA, .280 BAA, 41 K/24 BB (7 GS)

The top left-hander in the ultra-talented 2011 draft class, Hultzen was also the most polished—and still is. He already demonstrates advanced command of three pitches—a low 90s fastball, a slider (technically his out pitch) and a changeup—and is effective against right- and left-handed hitters.

Hultzen’s success is based upon his ability to locate his fastball on both sides of the plate, especially working inside against right-handed hitters. When he fails to do so, his secondary pitches aren’t set up as well and generally far less effective. Similarly, if they catch too much of the plate, their velocity still provides hitters with enough time to throw their hands at the ball and scatter bleeding hits across the field.

Prior to his promotion to Triple-A, Hultzen didn’t allow an earned run in four consecutive starts spanning 24.2 innings while fanning 35 and walking only eight batters. Even if he doesn't receive a September call-up, expect the southpaw to contend for a spot in the Mariners' rotation in 2013.

A.L.: Travis d'Arnaud, C, Toronto Blue Jays

Position: C                       

Height/Weight: 6'2", 195

DOB: 2/10/1989 (Age: 23)          

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Signed: 2007, first round (HS: Lakewood, Calif.)

2012 Stats

Triple-A: .333/.380/.595, 39 XBH (16 HR), 52 RBI, 59 K/19 BB (67 G)

It seemed as though Travis d’Arnaud would inevitably make his big league debut this season, adding even more firepower to an already potent Blue Jays lineup. However, the top catching prospect in baseball was recently sidelined for six to eight weeks with a torn PCL in his knee after breaking up a double play, ruining the remainder of his 2012 campaign and any shot at a big league call-up.

A right-handed hitter, d’Arnaud has plus power and should possess an above-average hit tool upon reaching the major leagues. Although there’s some swing-and-miss to his game, he’s traditionally had high line-drive rates. Therefore, his production this season shouldn’t just be attributed to the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

His blocking and receiving skills have vastly improved over the last two seasons and have drawn rave reviews from both his coaches and pitching staff. He’s always had a strong arm, but refined footwork led to better accuracy this season, as he threw out 12 of 40 base stealers (30 percent) prior to the injury.

D'arnaud has all the makings of a future All-Star catcher, and once he’s healthy and given an everyday role with the Blue Jays, he should emerge as one of the top overall catchers in baseball. Don’t be surprised if the Blue Jays attempt to trade J.P. Arencibia this offseason.

A.L.: Mike Olt, 3B/1B, Texas Rangers

Position: 3B

Height/Weight: 6’2”/210

DOB: 8/27/1988 (Age: 23)

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Signed: 2010, first-round supplemental (University of Connecticut)

2012 Stats

Double-A: .288/.398/.579, 46 XBH (28 HR), 82 RBI, 101 K/61 BB (95 G)

MLB: .222/.357/.222, 3 RBI, 4 K/3 BB (4 G) 

A physically strong right-handed hitter, Olt has plus power and may hit for a higher average than many expected after displaying an ability to make adjustments—most notably in his recognition of off-speed pitches. He has plus bat speed and a mighty swing, so high strikeout totals may always be an aspect of his game.

At the hot corner, Olt’s experience as a shortstop at Connecticut is obvious, as he has slightly above-average actions and giving hands. His plus arm should be more than enough to handle the position at the big league level. Although he has above-average range and an instinctual first step, he’s a below-average runner overall.

Shortly after the trade deadline, the Rangers recalled Olt from Double-A and have since given him starts at both third and first base. He won’t be an everyday player this season, but definitely creates favorable platoon scenarios at multiple positions.

N.L.: Gerrit Cole, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates

Position: RHP            

Height/Weight: 6'4", 220

DOB: 9/8/1990 (Age: 21)           

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Signed: 2011, first round (UCLA)

2012 Stats

High-A: 5-1, 67 IP, 2.55 ERA, .217 BAA, 69 K/21 BB (13 GS)

Double-A: 2-4, 36.2 IP, 3.93 ERA, .257 BAA, 37 K/10 BB (8 GS)

The No. 1 overall pick in the 2011 draft, Gerrit Cole is your classic power pitcher with an electric arsenal. His fastball can flash triple digits on the radar gun, though he typically sits in the upper 90s. When he’s efficient enough to work his slider off his fastball, it’s a legitimate strikeout pitch. Given his double-plus velocity, Cole also has a decent changeup when he’s able to mix it in.

There’s no denying that Cole has ace potential, but I just don’t think he will breeze through the minors as others do. Although he doesn’t walk a lot of hitters, the right-hander still falls behind too many hitters and leaves hittable pitches up in the zone. Furthermore, when pitching from the stack, he struggles to repeat his mechanics, ripping open with his glove side and throwing from a slightly lower arm slot.

Having only made four starts for Double-A this season, he’ll likely spend more time at the level before a possible late-season exposure at Triple-A. While I’m sure he could be successful in the major leagues later this season, a mid-2013 debut for the big right-hander is more realistic.

N.L.: Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies

Position: 3B                       

Height/Weight: 6'1", 205

DOB: 4/16/1991 (Age: 21)           

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Signed: 2009, second round (HS: El Toro, Calif.)

2012 Stats

Double-A: .277/.339/.418, 40 XBH (9 HR), 45 RBI, 47 K/36 BB (110 G)

Arenado has a flat bat path that can look awkward at first sight. However, he’s strong enough that the swing allows him to hit through the ball and generate backspin. He has average plate discipline that should improve with further seasoning in either Double- or Triple-A.

After shedding nearly 20 pounds prior to the 2011 season, Arenado showed significant improvement at third base and has the potential to be a decent defender in the major leaguers. He’s always possessed the arm strength and instincts to handle the position, but now, his athleticism is finally catching up.

After amassing 55 extra-base hits last season at High-A Modesto, Arenado’s power numbers are down this season at Double-A, but the plate discipline and consistent contact to all fields is still there. Attribute last season’s power to the hitter-friendly California League if you will, but he’s simply not driving the ball like he can.

With a strong season, it seemed as though Arenado would make his big-league debut late this season, especially given the Rockies’ struggles. He’s struggled for the most part, but has been scorching hot over the last two weeks. If he continues to swing the bat well, the Rockies may call him up while his confidence is high.

N.L.: Tyler Skaggs, LHP, Arizona Diamondbacks

Position: LHP                       

Height/Weight: 6'3", 195

DOB: 7/13/1991 (Age: 21)           

Bats/Throws: L/L

Drafted/Signed: 2009, first round (HS: Santa Monica, Calif.)

  

2012 Stats

Double-A: 5-4, 69.2 IP, 2.84 ERA, 3.46 FIP, .241 BAA, 71 K/21 BB (13 GS)

Triple-A: 4-1, 47.2 IP, 1.70 ERA, .228 BAA, 41 K/14 BB (8 GS)

Over the last two seasons, Tyler Skaggs has emerged as one of the game’s premier left-handed pitching prospects. He’s tall and lanky with a smooth yet deceptive arm action, as well as repeatable mechanics that allow him to pound the knees with his 88-93 mph fastball.

Skaggs may have the best left-handed curveball in the minor leagues, a double-plus offering that keeps right-handed hitters off balance as much as it does lefties. He’ll occasionally rush his delivery and lose the pitch to his arm side, but even when he’s not throwing it well, it still has enough shape and downward action to generate swing-and-misses.

Skaggs also has a decent changeup that will get better with time, but it honestly doesn’t even matter when you have that good of a breaking ball.

The left-hander has been outstanding following a promotion to Triple-A in early July and seems ready to contribute in the major leagues. However, with a rotation currently comprised of three lefties, there’s simply no room for him. 

N.L.: Zack Wheeler, RHP, New York Mets

Position: RHP                       

Height/Weight: 6'4", 185

DOB: 5/30/1990 (Age: 22)           

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Signed: 2009, first round (HS: East Paulding, Ga.)

2012 Stats

Double-A: 10-6, 116 IP, 3.26 ERA, .225 BAA, 117 K/43 BB (19 GS)

Triple-A: 4.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 7 K/4 BB (1 G)

Prior to the season, I believed that Wheeler had the potential to take a huge step forward to become one of the top pitching prospects in the game—and he’s done exactly that.

Wheeler has a lean 6'4" frame, a quick arm and clean mechanics. His fastball runs as high as 97-98 mph; however, he usually works in the low to mid-90s with explosive sidearm action on his two-seamer. His curveball has sharp downward break that buckles right-handed hitters, and he also throws a solid-average changeup that should be at least his third above-average offering by the time he reaches the major leagues.

While his command still needs some refinement, he’s excelled this season at Double-A and worked deep into games. Consistently working down in the zone and difficult to barrel, Wheeler’s allowed only two home run while registering a 1.17 GB/FB rate.

In conjunction with Matt Harvey’s call-up, Wheeler assumed his place in the Triple-A rotation. Although rumors have been shot down regarding a call-up in September, I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes a few relief appearances to get his feet wet.

N.L.: Oscar Taveras, OF, St. Louis Cardinals

Position: OF                       

Height/Weight: 6'2", 180

DOB: 6/19/1992 (Age: 20)            

Bats/Throws: L/L

Drafted/Signed: 2008, Dominican Republic

2012 Stats

Double-A: .323/.386/.577, 56 XBH (20 HR), 79 RBI, 8 SB, 50 K/38 BB (83 G)

The left-handed hitter takes forceful hacks, but retains the ability to generate hard contact thanks to his ridiculous hand-eye coordination and knowledge of the strike zone. Albeit a violent one, his swing is balanced and smooth, as he generates exceptional torque and, in turn, the ability to unload on inner-half offerings.

There’s nothing more encouraging than a 20-year-old developing his power at Double-A while retaining a high batting average. It’s hard to predict which tool will ultimately be his best: hit or power.

His above-average speed has allowed him to play all three outfield positions so far, but his highest ceiling comes as a corner outfielder. Given his strong arm, I’d be surprised if he doesn’t end up in right field. His speed is slightly below average, especially on the basepaths, but it plays up a grade in the outfield due to his instincts.

He’s done nothing but rake this season and may be in store for a promotion to Triple-A, while an everyday job in the Cardinals could come as early as next season.