Fantasy Baseball Draft Preparation: Catchers

We have already brought you our draft preparation on first basemen and second basemen, and now it is time to focus on the men behind the plate.  Catcher is the last position to get started on draft day.

You will see just other offensive position and even pitchers start to be selected before the first catcher is drafted. There is really only four or five solid options at this position before you start to get to the young guys, or players with big question marks attached to their names.  

Many fantasy players will wait until very late in the draft to take their backstop because they don’t feel it is worth it to take one of the elite as early as they go, and the rest of the pack is interchangeable. 

Others figure that if there are only a few solid options that they want to be sure that they get one of them. If you decide not to pick one of the top option, there are a handful of good young risks that could possibly bring you as much production as some of the studs. 

Below is a list of when you should expect each player to go on Draft Day, and my analysis of their projected draft position.

Round Four

Granted, Russell Martin is the one catcher that can basically guarantee you 15-20 steals, but I just don’t see him as the consensus number one catcher. He had a great second season behind the dish for the Dodgers in ‘07, but all of his stats took a pretty good sized hit last year, except runs scored. 

He still offers a good deal of value and it isn’t a serious mistake to take him as the first catcher but people always say that he is a 20/20 catcher and that is just a plateau that he is yet to hit.

He was pretty darn close, but if you look at all of his numbers (majors and minors), it would lead you to believe that 2007 has a real good chance of being a career year. He’s a top three catcher, but take a look at the whole picture before calling Martin’s name as the first catcher on draft day.

Brian McCann should be the first catcher taken in my opinion. At age 25, he is getting ready to enter his prime and he is perhaps the best power option at the position.  McCann has hit over .300 in two of his three full seasons, and jacked 23+ homers in those same seasons.

He also doesn’t strike out much for a power hitter, and has been pretty durable over his career (by catcher’s standards anyway). They say chicks dig the long ball?  Well so do fantasy players, and McCann should be selected before anyone at the position. 

He offers you really solid production in both average and power, and is among only two regular players at the position who can claim that. 

There are other good choices, but if I’m ready to pick a catcher and they are all available, I’m going McCann 100 percent of the time.

Round Five

Joe Mauer is perhaps the most over rated player in fantasy baseball.  All we have heard for years is “his power is coming.”  “His power is coming.”  “Don’t worry, his power is coming.”  Mauer will be 26 years old shortly after the season starts and the guy has broken 10 home runs once in his four full years of play.  When the heck is his power coming?

OK, so he has won two batting titles and not many other catchers hit for a high average, but if he is only helping you out in one category, is he worth a fifth-round pick?

The perception among fantasy players is that he also helps you out with speed.  Since stealing 13 in his first full season, Mauer has not swiped more than eight bags in a year. 

Doesn’t sound like much help to me.  He has gotten his RBI into the 80s twice, which I can’t say is bad, but the guy has also had problems with knee injuries, which is not good for a catcher. 

I’m not saying that Joe Mauer isn’t a quality player, I am just saying that he is selected in drafts FAR before I would even consider him.

Round Six

Why is Geovany Soto not being selected among the Martins, McCanns, and Mauers?  He did look like a pedestrian minor league player for most of his career before exploding on the scene in 2007 with a .353/26/109 season at AAA.

Fantasy owners were naturally skeptical heading into last year, but it seems that many aren’t buying into his NL ROY statistics of .285/23/86 in 2008. 

Two consecutive stellar years is enough for me to jump on the bandwagon, and after McCann, I would be targeting Soto second among catchers.  He plays in a tiny ballpark, hits in the middle of one of the better lineups in the National League, and is just going to turn 26 years old. 

Don’t draft Soto expecting the AAA numbers, especially the average, but if his stats from last year excite you, expect him to repeat them again in 2009.

Round Seven

Victor Martinez had been one of the most consistent players in fantasy over the previous four seasons and had a stranglehold on the top catcher ranking over that time. However, in 2008 he tore the hearts out of his fantasy owners and then threw them on the floor and stomped on it. 

Martinez got off to a great start batting average wise, but when he went on the DL with an elbow injury on June 11th he had not hit a home run. Most of that could be attributed to the fact that his elbow caused him so much pain he could barely play, but still, his owners expected a ton when they drafted him. 

Victor came back in time for September and actually finished fairly strong.  However, the effects of his injury have obviously taken a toll on his draft status if he is lasting this long. 

Martinez is supposed to be completely healthy and is also supposed to be playing some first base and DH to give him some time off behind the plate. This should help him play in more games this year than most other catchers, and if he can bounce back you are getting a great value in the seventh round.

Given the fact that every other name past him on this list doesn’t have a track record of success, I would say taking Martinez in the seventh round is a gamble worth taking.

Here is the talent drop off point for catchers. The above five players either have a long history of success or give you elite numbers in one or more categories. Once Martinez is picked it becomes much more of a crap shoot.

The second tier has become more reliable than it used to be at catcher, but if you do end up taking a catcher past the seventh round, chances are you are not feeling confident in what you are going to get from your pick.

Round 11

Savvy fantasy players had been waiting for that break out from Ryan Doumit for a few years, but truth be told all he needed was a steady job and to stay free of injury. In just 116 games last year, Doumit hit .318 with 15 homers and 69 RBI, which was among the best numbers by a catcher. 

With the starting job nailed down, Doumit seems like a slam dunk pick if you miss out on the elite. However, this is not a young guy. 

Doumit will turn 28 just as the season starts so it isn’t like he’s some hot shot prospect just bursting on the scene.  He toiled in the minors for a while, and his injury history is very long. 

He even missed some time in his coming out party of 2008 with a thumb injury and a concussion, so he isn’t no brainer to be the next guy taken. Doumit is a risk here, but all of the remaining catchers have some level of risk associated with them, but he offers some of the highest rewards on the board.

2007 had Alex Gordon, 2008 it was Evan Longoria, well the prospect everyone is salivating over in 2009 is Baltimore’s catcher Matt Wieters. At two levels of the minors last season, Wieters hit .355 with a combined 27 homers and 91 RBI. 

Looking at those eye popping numbers at the catcher position, and you know right away why people are so excited. 

Keep your excitement under control somewhat, however, because it isn’t a guarantee that he will succeed right away. Not every prospect pans out don’t forget.  For every Evan Longoria there are five Sean Burroughs and Ben Grieves (if you don’t remember them, just trust me). 

Now I do expect Wieters to hit upon his arrival, but that also isn’t written in stone.  There is a good chance that the O’s will start him in AAA for a few weeks (a la Evan Longoria last season) to keep him away from free agency for another year.

This might be a little high for Wieters, but there is no doubt that he could have a huge impact.  Just as a safety net in case he does start the season in the minors, grab yourself a place holder to protect yourself for that first month.

Round 12

Chris Iannetta has been the “catcher of the future” for a few years in Colorado, but was unable to take the full-time job after a few failed stints with the big team.

He first came into the fantasy consciousness when he hit 11 homers in just 47 games at AA for the Rockies, and after hitting .351 in a short stay in AAA, he found his way to the big leagues. Iannetta struggled in that assignment, and he was worse during his call up in 2007. 

However, he finally found his groove last season, hitting 18 homers and driving in 65 runs in just 104 games. 

Iannetta will go into this season with no competition for the starting job, and there’s no reason to think that he won’t be able to improve on his numbers.  If I am in drafts and miss out on McCann, Soto, or Martinez, Iannetta is the guy that I am targeting. 

I think you have a great chance of getting better than 12th round value out of him.

Round 13

In his three years with the Angels, Mike Napoli has been battling Jeff Mathis and injuries in his quest to be the every day catcher.  His career high in games played over this time has been 99, and this fact always keeps fantasy owners from putting their full faith in him.

The good news is, he should have no problem beating out Mathis for the starting job in 2009.  The bad news is he is already dealing with a slight knee injury, although it doesn’t seem to threaten him long term.

Napoli offers rare power at the position, as he smoked 20 homers in just 79 games in 2008. He has also improved his batting average in each of his three seasons, and even has stolen a handful of bases in each season of his career. 

Napoli has huge sleeper written all over him if he can stay healthy and is able to play 130-145 games.  His power is legitimate, as he hit 31 homers in one year at AA, so the only thing that appears to hold him back is his ability to stay on the field.

Napoli is a high risk/high reward pick, but in this round it is very much worth the risk.

Round 14

Bengie Molina has been one of the more consistent hitters over his career, which I think started around the time of the American Revolution.  The oldest of the Molina Brothers, Bengie has always had a pretty good stick, but has never gotten the fantasy attention that he perhaps deserves.

It was a surprise to all, however, when at age 34 he went out and had the best year of his career, nearly topping the 100 RBI mark while hitting .292 and hitting 16 homers.

He isn’t flashy or exciting, but you can almost write in his numbers before the season even starts.  Molina should hit about .280 with 15 homers, 75 RBI, and score about 45 runs.  He certainly won’t win you your fantasy league, but he won’t be a drain on you either. 

The only concern is his age, and it usually catches up with the guys behind the dish before other position players. But until you see his stats start to deteriorate, it shouldn’t come into play.

Round 16

Once a legitimate middle round selection, Jorge Posada has now fallen to near the bottom of the pack as far as catchers are concerned.  He has had a fantastic career, but he is now 37, and the shoulder surgery he had last year doesn’t bode well for his power in the future. 

If he is able to bounce back and have the kind of seasons that he is accustomed to, than you have one of the steals of the draft, but I would rather take a chance on one of these young up and comers than a guy at the end of his string.

Posada has said that he wants to catch 130-140 games, while the Yankees say more around 100-110. They both seem to be optimistic. Between the shoulder injury and just getting older, I expect to see Posada at the DH more this season.

That could help his offensive statistics, but I am not hopeful. I can see him hitting for a higher average, but I think to expect him to get close to 20 homers might be stretching.

Round 18

Jeff Clement had almost as much hype coming into 2008 as Matt Wieters does this season, but it didn’t quite pan out that way. Clement has nothing more to prove in the minors, as he has just worn out AAA pitching, but it just didn’t translate to the majors last year.

He hit just .227 and had only five homers in 63 games over two stints in the majors. Clement, who has pretty good plate discipline for a power hitter, also struck out an uncharacteristic 66 times over those games.

While not every prospect will always pan out, it appears that Clement has what it takes to be a great major league hitter. And at a position with so many question marks, he is certainly worth a late round selection if you wait until the end of the draft to pick your catcher. 

You could get a huge return on that gamble.

Dioner Navarro took a huge step forward in 2008 and was even named to the All-Star team.  Unfortunately, this doesn’t exactly translate to a fantasy all-star. Navarro hit for a good average last year at .295, but it was .310 before the break, and only .275 after it. 

Navarro is serviceable if you are in a league with more than 12 teams, or if you have an injury to your starter, but he shouldn’t be counted on for much.  He has never topped ten home runs, and his 54 RBI last year were a career high. Don’t expect much more from Navarro.

If it wasn’t for the uncertainty of how many at bats he will get, Kelly Shoppach would be much farther up the board.  Shoppach was forced into the starting role after Victor Martinez injury and he made everyone forget that Victor was even on the team. In 112 games, Shoppach hit 21 homers and drove in 55 runs.

A former Red Sox prospect, his power is definitely legitimate, all he needs is the chance to play regularly.  If the Indians are smart they will move Martinez around to catch some, play a little first base, and DH as well. 

The only problem with that is that Travis Hafner should be healthy and play DH, Ryan Garko is the regular first baseman (even though he has struggled), and that doesn’t leave much flexibility.

If Shoppach gets 500+ at bats he will have a chance at 30 homers, if he doesn’t he is only worthy of a bench spot on your roster.

Later Rounds or Undrafted

A.J. Pierzynski, Ramon Hernandez, Kurt Suzuki, Gerald Laird, Brandon Inge, Yadier Molina, Jason Varitek, Chris Snyder, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Taylor Teagarden, Max Ramirez, Jesus Flores.