Why Tim Tebow Will Be the Most Polarizing Player in NFL Draft History
Tim Tebow will go down as probably the most accomplished player in College Football History. His energy, passion and leadership skills make him a player that you want to cheer. He is also a tremendous human being off the field.
But there are serious questions of how his skills will translate to the next level. So what I am going to do is break down the arguments used for Tebow.
1. Statistics
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Player A: 1204 Completions 1824 Attempts 11931 Yards 91 Touchdowns 39 Interceptions 66.0 Completion percentage
Player B: 927 Completions 1569 Attempts 11818 Yards 72 Touchdowns 49 Interceptions 59.0% completion percentage
These two both played in BCS conferences, they were in the same draft class and they are similar sizes. One was the first pick and a two time pro bowler; the other was a sixth round pick who has thrown two passes in his NFL career. Can you guess which one is which?
Player A is Kliff Kingsbury, and player B is Carson Palmer. Kingsbury played on the short pass, QB friendly, Shotgun offense of Texas Tech.
Carson Palmer played in a pro style offense in USC where he was asked to make more throws down the field. Just looking at the stats of a QB is not a good measurement of his offensive success.
2. His athletic ability is uncoachable
He is a tremendous athlete on the college level, and there is no denying that. First, mobility is useful to have as an NFL QB but it is not that important.
Secondly, while he is a good scrambler, his mobility is more Garrard or Romo than Vick or McNabb. He also won't be able to stay healthy running the way he does. His arm strength is only adequate, not great.
3. His decision making and accuracy is top notch
This is where the offensive system comes into play. In Florida's Spread Option most of the passing game is bubble screens, hitches and crossing patterns. All short routes where the QB can wait for his receivers beat lesser talent.
In the NFL, it is not like that. Every throw in the NFL is an anticipation throw, meaning you have to throw the ball before the receiver is open.
The NFL Passing Guru Ron Jaworski said it best. "The key is to know what happens before that back foot hits, so when that back foot hits, you know where you're going with that football, not sitting there waiting, hoping something happens."
Also, since the NFL is a level playing field receivers don't get much separation. Ron Jaworski also said " a cornerback running with a receiver, they are close enough to smell what the other had for breakfast." He says "in the NFL, that's called being open."
There is no proof that Tebow can make the stick throws into tight coverage that you need to make in the NFL.
Also, look at the National Championship Game; Oklahoma ran a simple Zone Blitz with Gerald McCoy dropping back into coverage and Tebow failed to identify it and threw it right at McCoy.
The play Oklahoma ran is very common in the NFL. The Ravens especially like to run that play with Haloti Ngata.
4. His fundamentals are easily fixable
Along with the question with his offense, he has poor mechanics. The fact that he took all his snaps is not a huge problem since Roethlisberger, Brees and Flacco didn't take much snaps under center in college either.
The biggest problem is his release. In the National Championship game on his pick to Nic Harris, for example, not only did Tebow stare it down, but it also took him all day to throw it, and it was an easy pick.
His release is probably slower than Andre Woodson's, who fell to the sixth round because of his slow release. Here are comparisons of Leftwich (another guy with a slow release), Woodson and Tebow:
Because it took such a long time for Tebow to get the ball out of his hand and he also underthrew it the CB had a chance to make a play on the ball.
5. His hard work, leadership and intensity are unmatched
Everyone in the NFL works hard and plays with emotion. The league is filled with guys who were captains and leaders on their teams.
Cade McNown was drafted in the first round mostly because of his "intangibles" and that didn't work out that well. Also, we know the passion Tebow plays with, but we don't know how hard he works in the film room or on the practice field.
6. If they run the spread, Tebow will be successful
The spread is already in the NFL. The Patriots ran 88 percent of their plays in Shotgun from the second half of the Jets game to the end of the season. The Packers, Chiefs and Broncos ran a lot of plays out of shotgun.
But you still need to be able to make throws into tight coverage. The spread option won't come to the NFL. With the amount of money QBs make, no team will risk their quarterbacks for the pounding they will take.
Also the speed is too great to run that in the NFL. There will be some packages like the Wildcat but nothing like the offense Florida runs.
7. Scouts are always wrong
Scouting is an inexact science. No one has a perfect track record, but they aren't usually wrong on guys like this. They are usually wrong on QBs from small schools (Warner, Romo, Garcia) or unathletic, skinny QBs who had trouble keeping his starting job (Brady).
Scouts have probably scouted Tebow more than any other QB in college because of the amount of NFL talent on his team. Scouts are usually regional so the same scouts who looked at Stafford also looked at Tebow.
One will probably be the first pick in the draft in April and the other is viewed as a developmental guy who might need to switch positions. The same scouts. They are fans just like us; why would they rate Tebow lower?
Conclusion
I know I will get a bunch of comments about me hating Tebow and that he will prove all his doubters wrong like he did in college but I wrote this to show why he is a major question mark as an NFL QB. This will be a long debate for the next year. I can't wait.
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