Analyzing the Trade Budget of All the Top Buyers in MLB
Contenders that have holes to patch up are running out of time to do so. The July 31 non-waiver trade deadline is looming. It's going to be here before anybody knows it.
The extra wild card berth in each league this year has had the desired effect. There are more contenders in the American League and the National League, and more contenders mean more buyers at the deadline.
We've already seen some major trades go down. The New York Yankees acquired Ichiro from the Seattle Mariners, the Detroit Tigers acquired Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante from the Miami Marlins and then the Marlins turned around and sent Hanley Ramirez packing to the Los Angeles Dodgers.
And there are still five days to go until deadline day. With plenty of buyers still looking to buy, you can rest assured that plenty more trades are going to go down.
But how much wiggle room do the top buyers in MLB really have? It's easy for them to look for talent out on the trade market. Actually making a move to acquire talent is another issue entirely. Some buyers don't have as much to offer as others, and some don't have the funds to take on large contracts.
Now is a good time to put things in a proper perspective. Here's a look at what the top buyers in MLB have to work with.
A few notes: All stats you find within come from Baseball-Reference.com, with payroll figures coming from USA Today. And we're really only going to talk about "top" potential buyers. The Detroit Tigers and Pittsburgh Pirates are probably set, and fringe teams like the Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays will be ignored as well.
We're going to start in the AL West and move to the NL West.
Texas Rangers
1 of 10Primary Need: Starting pitching
The Rangers certainly don't need any bats, as they lead baseball in runs scored and they have solid starters all over the field. Their bullpen is also pretty well set.
Their starting rotation is another issue. Colby Lewis has been lost for the rest of the season, Roy Oswalt has a bad back and there's been a question of who the ace of the staff is all season.
Hence the reason the Rangers are looking at aces out on the trade market. ESPN's Jayson Stark has linked them to Zack Greinke, Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com has linked them to James Shields, Joel Sherman of the New York Post has tweeted that they're the favorites for Josh Johnson and so on.
Farm System: Very strong
The Rangers have as much young talent to offer as any team in Major League Baseball. Before the start of the season, Baseball America ranked Texas' farm system as the best in baseball.
Top shortstop prospect Jurickson Profar probably won't go anywhere, but the Rangers may part with third base prospect Mike Olt. They also have some solid pitching prospects and outfielders to offer.
Payroll: Big already, but there's room
The Rangers are currently working with a big payroll of around $120 million, but they've shown with their spending in recent years that they are by no means opposed to spending big bucks on players.
The one thing to keep in mind is that the Rangers have a ton of TV money to play with. They can afford whatever rentals they take on, and they'll be able to afford trade acquisitions who are under contract beyond this season.
If need be, they can always accommodate big contracts by choosing not to re-sign Josh Hamilton after the season is over.
Los Angeles Angels
2 of 10Primary Need: Starting pitching
The Angels are in pretty much the same boat as the Rangers. They have plenty of offense, and their bullpen is solid enough to get the job done. They could use another lefty in their pen, but it's not like they're the New York Mets.
The Angels have three very good starting pitchers in Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson and Dan Haren. Beyond them, though, all bets are off.
Stark noted in his report that the Angels are also in on Greinke. He noted in a separate report that the Angels have also checked in on Johnson. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com has linked them to James Shields. Basically, all the same pitchers the Rangers are looking at.
Farm System: Weak
Baseball America had the Angels' farm system pegged as the No. 19 system in baseball before the start of the season, and that was when Mike Trout still qualified as a prospect.
The Angels don't have the same kind of system depth that the Rangers do. Their biggest problem is a lack of blue-chippers. The best prospect they have now is probably shortstop Jean Segura, and they'll have to part with him in order to get a coveted ace pitcher.
And even he might not be enough. If the Angels make a big trade, they're probably going to have to empty their farm system.
Payroll: Bloated
The Angels have a payroll of over $150 million. Only three teams are spending more money than them this season.
But just like the Rangers, the Angels have a lot of TV money to play with. They used some of this money to sign Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson, and they'll spend some more if it means a better chance at winning it all this year.
The one danger is that the Angels aren't drawing that well this year. In fact, their attendance is down from where it was last year even despite the big offseason signings. That's the kind of thing that shouldn't be ignored.
Oakland A's
3 of 10Primary Need: Offense
The A's have more than enough pitching. They lead the American League in team ERA, and they lead the league in both starters' ERA and bullpen ERA. Remarkable stuff.
What the A's need are bats, especially on the left side of their infield. They were in on Hanley Ramirez before he was dealt to the Dodgers, according to Danny Knobler. Now they're discussing Chase Headley and Jimmy Rollins as possible options, according to ESPN's Jerry Crasnick.
Farm System: Strong
The A's have shipped a lot of talent out in the last couple of years, and it hasn't been for naught. Their farm system is one of the best in baseball.
The issue is that a lot of their best young players are already up with the big club, meaning there's less talent down on the farm than there was when the season began. Billy Beane still has enough talent at his disposal to make a major trade, but it's doubtful that he'll move any of the club's top rookies (and they have a lot of those).
Payroll: Very, very tight
They're the A's. Their payroll is the second-lowest in all of baseball, and it's not likely to creep any higher. The A's simply don't have the revenue to spare, and team owner Lew Wolff cares more about moving the team out of Oakland than he does about anything else.
So Beane will have to do what he does best: Find players the organization can afford or get other teams to pick up the tab for players the organization can't afford.
For example, the A's can't afford Rollins, so the Phillies would have to eat some of his contract. On the other hand, the A's can afford Headley, who is only making $3.48 million this year. He'll be eligible for arbitration for the first time in 2013.
Chicago White Sox
4 of 10Primary Need: Starting pitching
The White Sox solved their third base problem by acquiring Kevin Youkilis back in June, and Kenny Williams added a solid piece to the club's bullpen when he traded for Brett Myers.
Chicago has two very good starters in Jake Peavy and Chris Sale. Jose Quintana has been a very pleasant surprise. It needs more, though, and they apparently want an ace.
The Stark report referenced on the Rangers slide claims that the White Sox are yet another team in on Greinke. Tom Haudricourt of the Journal Sentinel wrote recently that the White Sox are basically obsessed with the idea of acquiring Greinke.
Farm System: Awful
It's widely agreed that the White Sox have the worst farm system in baseball. It's short on both depth and blue-chippers. In fact, it doesn't even have any blue-chippers.
Because of this, it's been oft-noted that the White Sox will have to involve a third team in any discussions centered around Greinke. They don't have the assets to go get him on their own.
The same goes for any top trade target.
Payroll: High
The White Sox's payroll checks in just south of $100 million. That's down about $30 million from where it was in 2011.
While the White Sox can't really be considered a big-market club, they do have money to spend. If they can get a rental player like Greinke, they wouldn't have to worry about having to deal with an increased payroll in 2013.
That would be ideal because the White Sox know they can take nothing for granted with their attendance, which is down this year. Williams admitted to the Chicago Tribune in June that the club doesn't have much financial flexibility while attendance is down.
New York Yankees
5 of 10Primary Need: Third base
As recently as a couple days ago, the Yankees would not have been included in this discussion. After they acquired Ichiro, they were all set.
But then Alex Rodriguez broke his hand, giving the Yankees a need for some third base depth. Per a report from the Post's Joel Sherman, Brian Cashman is going to keep his eye on the trade market for a third baseman.
Stark wrote in a recent report that Marco Scutaro would be a good option for the Yankees, but they've also been linked to big-name players like Aramis Ramirez (Jon Heyman) and Chase Headley (Buster Olney).
Farm System: Strong enough
The Yankees don't have an elite farm system, but "strong enough" seems to be a good way to characterize it.
Their top trade chips are probably outfielder Mason Williams and catcher Gary Sanchez, but Cashman won't part with either of them unless it means getting a star. He's suggested that he's not looking for a star to replace A-Rod.
But you never know with Cashman. He's a lot cleverer than he gets credit for.
Payroll: Huge
The Yankees are looking to shed payroll over the next couple of years, but that doesn't change the fact that they're the Yankees. They have more money to throw around than any team in baseball.
They can afford a platoon third baseman. If they target a star like Ramirez or Headley, they'll find a way to make it work.
Boston Red Sox
6 of 10Primary Need: Starting pitching
The Red Sox rank second in the majors behind the Rangers in runs scored. If anything, they'll trade away bats before bringing any bats in from outside. Their bullpen is also fine as is.
What the Red Sox need is an ace pitcher. Jon Lester and Josh Beckett have been disappointing this season, and Felix Doubront and Aaron Cook don't inspire much confidence. The only Boston starter who does is Clay Buchholz.
The Red Sox have been linked to Greinke, but that's not happening. Their top target, according to Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com and others, appears to be Johnson.
Farm System: Strong
The Red Sox have the pieces to make a major trade if they so choose. The dilemma is that they may not be willing to part with their top prospects just to prop up this year's team. At some point, it's just not worth it.
They're only going to part with top prospects if it means getting an ace pitcher who they can control beyond this season. Hence the reason they're looking at Johnson and other targets such as Matt Garza.
Payroll: Bloated
The only teams with higher payrolls than Boston this year are the Phillies and the Yankees.
If the Red Sox do acquire a player they can control beyond this season, the fear will be of them going over the luxury tax threshold in 2013. It's going to be set at $189 million, and the Red Sox are at $173 million this year.
They do have Daisuke Matsuzaka's contract set to come off the books, but they won't have much financial wiggle room if they hand David Ortiz a blank check this offseason.
Atlanta Braves
7 of 10Primary Need: Starting pitching
This time last year, the Braves needed offense. They have more than enough offense this year, as they rank ninth in baseball in runs scored.
The Braves have needed starting pitching help all season long. Once Brandon Beachy was lost for the season, that need only became more pronounced.
The Braves tried and failed to acquire Ryan Dempster. According to Stark, the Braves have turned their attention to Greinke.
Farm System: Decent
The Braves have some decent pitching to spare, which was evident in their failed trade for Dempster. Randall Delgado, one of Atlanta's top young pitchers, was supposed to go to Chicago in that deal.
The Braves had more pitching to spare in years past, however. To make a trade for somebody like Greinke, they're going to have to wave goodbye to a significant chunk of their farm system.
Payroll: Middle of the pack
The Braves have tended to operate with a payroll in between $80 and $90 million in recent seasons. This year, they're at a little under $84 million.
Much like the White Sox, the Braves don't have much wiggle room because of their lagging attendance. It's up this year, but the Braves are still in the middle of the pack. That's par for the course for them.
So the Braves won't be adding too much money at the deadline, and it will be a shocker if they make a trade for a player who is owed a lot of money in 2013. They'd probably prefer to save money so they can make a run at re-signing Michael Bourn.
Cincinnati Reds
8 of 10Primary Need: Leadoff hitter
The Reds have excellent pitching and are very strong on defense. They have power on offense, especially when Joey Votto is healthy, but their leadoff spot has been a black hole all season.
For the season, Reds leadoff hitters have posted a .247 on-base percentage, worst in MLB by a significant margin.
There aren't many options out there for the Reds, but Ken Rosenthal has heard that they've "kicked the tires" on Twins outfielder Denard Span.
Farm System: Decent
The Reds' farm system was a lot stronger before they traded for Mat Latos this offseason. Now, it's pretty shallow.
There's no way the Reds are parting with speed-demon shortstop Billy Hamilton, so they're basically limited to spare parts in trade discussions. That's precisely why Rosenthal noted that Shane Victorino and Juan Pierre are more realistic options for the Reds than Span, whose price tag is pretty large.
Payroll: Middle of the pack
The Reds are in the same area as the Braves in terms of payroll. Theirs checks in at a little over $82 million.
Attendance is up in Cincinnati this year, and there's a buzz around the team similar to the buzz that surrounded it in 2010. Walt Jocketty did not make any major moves at the trade deadline that year, nor did he go out and increase the club's payroll after the season was over.
So it's by no means a given that the Reds are willing to up their payroll in a significant way. And given where they are in the standings, there's really no need for them to be overly aggressive.
St. Louis Cardinals
9 of 10Primary Need: Starting pitching
The Cardinals were hoping that Chris Carpenter would get healthy by the middle of the season and step into his usual spot in their rotation, but that hope didn't pan out.
Cardinals starters have been a lot better than advertised this season, but they lack both depth and a true ace in their rotation.
There's been some buzz about the Cardinals going after Greinke, but John Mozeliak has set his sights a little lower. Stark reported that that the Cardinals have checked in on James Shields, and a recent report from Jon Paul Morosi hinted that they may have some interest in Johnson.
Farm System: Very strong
The Cardinals have some of the best prospects in baseball at their disposal, with the best of the bunch being right-handed pitch prospect Shelby Miller.
Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has reported that Miller can be had in a trade, leaving open the possibility of the Cardinals making a major move at the deadline.
That appears unlikely, but Mozeliak is not one to be underestimated.
Payroll: High
The Cardinals have a payroll slightly over $110 million this season. There aren't many teams spending more money than they are.
However, it must be kept in mind that the Cardinals' payroll would be a lot higher if they had re-signed Albert Pujols. It's not out of the question that the Cardinals will dip into some of the funds they had set aside for him.
The other thing about the Cardinals is that they have a good track record of re-signing players they trade for. Scott Rolen and Matt Holliday come to mind.
Los Angeles Dodgers
10 of 10Primary Needs: Outfield help, starting pitching
The Dodgers took care of a major need when they traded for Ramirez, but they still have a few more major needs to address.
The Dodgers haven't gotten good production out of their left fielders this season, so they're on the lookout for an outfielder with a good bat. They also need some starting pitching depth.
It would take too long to list all the players the Dodgers have been linked to, so I'll just refer you to my Dodgers trade rumors tracker. That's where you can read up on all the latest concerning Ryan Dempster, James Shields, Josh Johnson, Hunter Pence, Shane Victorino and so on.
Farm System: Weak
The Dodgers have a lot of arms in their farm system. But as Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus wrote before the start of the season, it's more quantity than quality.
The one guy everyone wants is Zach Lee, and clubs are also looking at Allen Webster. They're the two best prospects the Dodgers have to offer, but they hardly qualify as blue-chippers. Beyond them, LA's system is basically comprised of spare parts.
Payroll: Big, but there's plenty of room for growth
The Dodgers' payroll is already pushing $100 million, but they've made it clear that they're willing to push it a lot higher.
A key reason why the Dodgers were able to get Ramirez was because they agreed to take on the rest of his contract, which has over $30 million remaining on it. It's doubtful that any other team would have been willing to do that.
Money is the Dodgers' best asset, and it's certainly their most plentiful asset. If a team is looking to get rid of a bad contract, it should call the Dodgers.
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