Ranking the NFL's 25 Most Clutch Players Today

We watch sports to see moments of glory. When the the stakes are highest and the odds are longest, the best athletes take their game to the next level. When they make the incredible throw or jaw-dropping catch that wins it all for their team, we remember it for the rest of our lives.

Athletes with otherwise brilliant careers are dogged if they weren't at their best in the big moments. Players who'd otherwise be forgotten can live forever with just one huge moment in a huge game, like former Giants wide receiver David Tyree's legendary "helmet catch" which extended the game-winning drive of Super Bowl XLII.

Unfortunately, that ability to step up in the big moments is almost impossible to measure. Just the idea of identifying players who always seem to do well when it counts involves assessing a whole mess of assumptions, emotions and superstitions.

So, can we statistically quantify "clutch"? Is there an unbiased way of measuring which players do the most to help their team win when it matters most?

As it turns out, there's already a great statistic for identifying which players do the most to help their team win: WPA.

I'll let Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats explain WPA a little more:

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WPA starts with a Win Probability (WP) model of the game of football. Every situation in a game gives each opponent a particular chance of winning, and a WP model estimates those chances. The model created here at Advanced NFL Stats uses score, time, down, distance, and field position to estimate how likely each team will go on to win the game. For example, at the start of the 2nd quarter, a team down by 7 points with a 2nd down and 5 from their own 25 will win about 36% of the time—in other words a 0.36 WP.

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By using the NFL's official play-by-play record, Burke can calculate each play's effect on the chances a team has to win. Over the course of the season, we can literally see whose performances helped their team win the most.

But there's more to it than that, isn't there? There's wins, and then there's wins. The touchdown catch that puts the dagger in the heart of a 2-6 tomato can is not the same as the touchdown catch Santonio Holmes made to win Super Bowl XLIII.

To identify the most clutch players in the NFL, I took the best WPA performers at each offensive skill position over the last three seasons. Then, for each year, I compared their regular-season WPA-per-game average to their same stat in the playoffs (where applicable).

I then took a weighted average of their three-year regular-season WPA-per-game average, and the average delta between their regular season and playoff performances. The resulting list should be the players who are most important to their teams' winning ways, with those who step it up in the postseason getting a boost over those who don't.

No. 25: Rob Gronkowski

Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski is the complete package: size, speed, athleticism, hands and mean streak. Oh, and he's exceptional when the Patriots lean on him to win games, which is always.

His 2011 WPA was an astounding 3.04, which was literally double the next-best tight end's value.

Limited playing time in 2010 and none at all in 2009, combined with a 2011 playoff performance that was only slightly less dominant than in the regular season, kept Gronkowski from ranking much, much higher.

No. 24: Jason Witten

Jason Witten hasn't seen the postseason in the past three years, but over that same time he's been a rock-solid contributor in the passing game. His 267 receptions, 2,794 yards and 16 TDs have netted the Dallas Cowboy season-long WPAs of 1.34, 1.13 and 0.77.

No. 23: Jimmy Graham

Jimmy Graham was a breakout story of the Saints' 2011 season, and no wonder: His 99 catches, 1,310 yards and 11 touchdowns would be incredible for a veteran wideout, let alone a second-year tight end.

But what got Graham on this list, despite not playing on 2010 or 2009, was his astounding playoff performance. His 0.33 average playoff WPA is really incredible; in the Saints' two playoff games, Graham alone made them 33 percent more likely to win.

No. 22: Darren Sproles

Darren Sproles has become the new "it" guy in the NFL: the new mold for the dynamic playmaker. The all-purpose back was a key cog in the Saints' 2011 machine, but in the playoffs he became the linchpin: He racked up 207 all-purpose yards and three touchdowns in two games.

No. 21: Dwayne Bowe

Dwayne Bowe may have driven fantasy owners nuts with his tantalizing potential over the last few seasons, but he's repeatedly produced for the Chiefs during the regular season. Bowe's 2010 Pro Bowl campaign, where he racked up 15 touchdowns, pushed the Chiefs to a surprise 10-6 record and AFC West title.

It also pushed him up onto this list.

No. 20: Tim Tebow

Tim Tebow is on this list almost entirely for one reason: his miraculous overtime playoff game-winning drive against Pittsburgh. You start one playoff game and singlehandedly win it, your playoff WPA is pretty dang high.

No. 19: Vincent Jackson

Vincent Jackson's reputation is one of a flighty, inconstant talent. He had two nine-touchdown seasons in 2009 and 2011, plus a career yards-per-reception mark that sits at 17.5. His 2.90 WPA in 2009 led all wide receivers; no NFL wideout did more to help his team win that season.

He only partially recaptured that form in 2011, but almost nothing was working in San Diego last season. If healthy, he still has to be considered a game-breaker.

No. 18: Greg Jennings

Greg Jennings, legendarily, puts the team on his back [WARNING: audio in link contains strong profanity]. Over the last three regular seasons, Jennings' WPA has been 1.64, 1.46 and 2.33—10th, 11th and second among wide receivers in those years, respectively.

Jennings' playoff performances haven't been quite as dominant, hurting his final rank. But Jennings is still a huge part of why the Packers win so often.

No. 17: Jay Cutler

Jay Cutler has overcome all kinds of adversity to make this list: his battle with diabetes, the meltdown of the Broncos franchise, the tumult with former offensive coordinator Mike Martz and the Bears' inability to keep the pass rush off him.

Cutler's WPA has hovered below 1.0 for three years, but he stepped it up significantly in the 2010 playoffs with a 0.31 WPA.

No. 16: Tom Brady

Tom Brady used to have an unassailable reputation for clutch performance; he was Joe Cool for the new millennium. Brady's been incredible in the regular season lately, too: He finished 11th, fourth and No. 1 in quarterback WPA in 2009, 2010 and 2011, respectively.

But he finished with negative average WPA in the 2009 and 2010 playoffs, and his impressive 0.31 WPA-per-playoff game in 2011 still didn't match his 0.41 regular-season average. Brady is undoubtedly a great quarterback, but you can no longer call him "clutch" without caveats.

No. 15: Tony Gonzalez

Tony Gonzalez is a rock. In his three years with the Atlanta Falcons, the stalwart tight end has finished third, second and first in the NFL in WPA.

This season will be his last, but he should continue to come up big in the clutch for Matt Ryan and the Falcons.

No. 14: Wes Welker

Wes Welker is commonly thought of as a "hard-working guy" who overcomes a lack of physical talent to succeed through pure effort.

The reality is, Wes Welker is an extremely gifted player with plenty of physical talent. Despite his well-publicized Super Bowl drop, Welker has usually reliable hands.

Game in and game out, Welker's been one of the most vital pieces any offense in the NFL could ask for. In 2011, the only wideout who helped his team win more than Welker was the one and only Calvin Johnson.

No. 13: Ben Roethlisberger

Ben Roethlisberger has been driving the Steelers' bus almost since he took over the starting job as a rookie. He'd be much higher on this list if it weren't for his very rough 2012 playoff performance.

No. 12: Hakeem Nicks

Hakeem Nicks has been a solid, productive part of the Giants offense for quite some time. But he boosted his moderate WPA marks with a tremendous 2012 postseason performance. He was nearly twice as valuable to the Giants' playoff success as to their regular-season campaign.

No. 11: Andre Johnson

Poor Andre Johnson would kill to have the chance to boost his clutch factor with some boffo postseason performances. Instead, he'll have to make do with his consistently outstanding individual performances.

In his last two healthy seasons, 2010 and 2009, he finished third and fifth in WPA.

No. 10: Anquan Boldin

The perception is that Baltimore Ravens receiver Anquan Boldin has been worthless. In fact, nothing could be further from the truth.

Boldin finished 10th among WRs in WPA, and his flatly astounding 0.92 WPA across two 2011 playoff games shows he knows when to turn it on.

No. 9: Antonio Gates

Antonio Gates hasn't been to the postseason, but you could set a clock by the regularity of his production. His 1.5, 1.38 and 1.6 WPA marks have been the second best, best and second best earned by tight ends over the last three NFL seasons.

No. 8: Marques Colston

Marques Colston's name might surprise you, coming this late in the game. And indeed, he may get a boost by being part of a New Orleans offense that scores early and often but doesn't necessarily keep other teams at arm's length.

But Colston's finished fourth, second and 21st in WPA over the last three seasons, and his amazing 16-catch, 256-yard performance in the Saints' two playoff games this year boosted his clutch factor into the top 10.

No. 7: Matthew Stafford

There's no doubt Matthew Stafford has been a huge part of the Detroit Lions' turnaround. But his astounding 5,038-yard, 41-touchdown campaign in 2011 boosted him well up these rankings.

It didn't hurt that his only playoff appearance was a 28-of-43, 380-yard, four-touchdown performance (including the rushing touchdown pictured above).

No. 6: Calvin Johnson

You can't talk about Matthew Stafford's performance without talking about his favorite target, Calvin Johnson. At No. 6, Johnson edges out his trigger man by just one.

Johnson led NFL receivers in WPA in 2011, with a whopping 3.37 figure. That means he made the Lions, on average, 21 percent more likely to win each game all by himself.

No. 5: Eli Manning

Eli Manning went to Disneyland, as should all Super Bowl MVPs. For a long time, Manning fought a reputation as a good-but-inconsistent quarterback who'd never put his stamp on the league. But after throwing for 4,933 yards and 29 touchdowns en route to a Super Bowl victory, Manning proved he's the straw that stirs the Giants' drink.

His per-game WPA over the last three years averages out to 0.19, tied with Roethlisberger—and his brother Peyton—for the third-best WPA in the NFL over that period.

No. 4: Vernon Davis

Vernon Davis is a beast of a tight end, and his statistical production within the 49ers' run-first offense would have him high on this list anyway.

But after his first playoff campaign netted him a mind-blowing 10 catches for 292 yards and four touchdowns, including a game-winner against the Saints, his place among the NFL's best clutch players was cemented.

No. 3: Peyton Manning

Peyton Manning, of course, did not play in 2011. But he was crucial to the Colts' success in 2010 (0.18 WPA/G in regular season, 0.22 in playoffs). In 2009, his metrics were somehow twice as strong (0.39 WPA/G, 0.42 in playoffs).

Manning was so successful and so integral to his team's success that it shouldn't be a surprise that he remains so high on this list, even with a year off.

No. 2: Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers has finished second, third and third in quarterback WPA over the past three years. Unlike most of the other players at the top of the list, Rodgers has stayed quite consistent (when he's been able to play).

Rodgers was absolutely integral to the Packers' 15-1 season in 2011. His per-game average of 0.39 WPA topped the entire NFL. Unfortunately, his WPA in the playoffs was all too mortal: An 0.02 WPA was all Rodgers could muster in the face of the Giants' blitz.

Even so, only one player in the NFL can claim to have been better, more often, when it counted.

No. 1: Drew Brees

Drew Brees dominated the NFL in 2011. He led the NFL in completions (468), completion percentage (71.2), touchdowns (46) and set an NFL record for passing yards (5,476), according to Pro Football Reference.

With an average 0.34 WPA per game, Brees helped his team win more than all but Brady and Rodgers during the regular season. Incredibly, he kicked it up several notches for the 2011 playoffs: His 0.74 average playoff WPA almost defies belief. Statistically, Drew Brees made the Saints 74 percent more likely to win each of their two 2011 playoff games.

Combine this amazing 2011 season with his prior 2010 and 2009 performances, and it's no wonder that, statistically speaking, Drew Brees is the most clutch player in the NFL.