How the Media Can Make You Money at the MLB Sportsbook

This article focuses on baseball—but the information contained within it is applicable to all sports.

A well-known fact amongst sports investors is that market influence plays a substantial role in line creation. In this age of ubiquitous sports media, there's nothing more important than understanding the media markets at work in every bet you lay.

First, Florida and Atlanta: The Marlins are a smaller revenue team than the Braves. What's more, 90 percent of average fans will tell you that the Braves are favorites on any given night—thanks mostly to their dominance in the last two decades. 

In the last 10 years, though, the Marlins have won two World Series to the Braves' zero. At the time of writing, the two teams only were separated by four games in the standings. And still the Braves were heavy favorites.

Why is that?

Florida's road record is better than Atlanta's home record. The Marlins were riding a longer wining streak going into the game. And the Fish have an edge in speed, power, and starting pitching.

But they were underdogs, simply put, because they don't get any love from the media.  

How many news stories do you read about the Marlins? How often do you see their championships referenced? Anyone with cable  can catch the Braves on TV.  It has been that way for nearly 20 years.  But the Marlins?  Outside of a Florida market, they get little play. 

Media exposure tilts these lines. And media exposure makes the Marlins a much better underdog bet than the Braves.

At some sportsbooks, the Braves were favored at a clip of (-145), and the largest underdog line for the Marlins was (+129).  That's a huge gap for a Marlins team that has beat the moneyline to the tune of 12-8 against the Braves.  Those four games may seem like a narrow margin—but we're talking underdog lines of +225, +200, +119, +104, and more!  

With two of those lines over 200, the profit generated from those four extra wins is huge.

With everything working in the Marlins favor, why were they such huge underdogs? Easy: Because no one ever wagers on the Marlins.  They're a small market team.  They're rarely on TV.  They aren't a sexy topic for Internet pundits. They don't get a single weekend warrior bet outside of southern Florida. 

The Braves, on the other hand, are a media monster—and that kind of information can translate into big-time profits.

The Cubs-Brewers highlights the flipside of the equation.  Like the Braves, the Cubs are a big market team that gets daily television coverage. The difference: The Cubs are always hurting for positive publicity.

How many times have you heard the Cubs referred to as "lovable losers"?  The injury woes, the managerial blunders, the dugout fisticuffs—the Cubs are baseball's answer to the Jerry Springer Show. 

Or so the media wants us to believe.

When the Cubs screw up, it feeds into the media's stereotype—and so every hiccup gets heavy coverage. The result, so far as the sports investor is concerned, is distorted betting lines. 

In the Brewers game, the best underdog line for the Cubs was (+105), whereas the lowest favorite line for the Brewers was (-120). That difference may seem insignificant, but 60 percent of bettors' money was placed on the Brewers...even though the Cubs ranked higher in hitting, starting pitching, defense, and bench prowess. 

In addition, the Cubs were throwing Carlos Zambrano, who had a great deal to prove after the previously mentioned fisticuffs. Those who have watched Zambrano over the last five years know he thrives on emotion.  And still 60 percent of investors bet against him.

The negative perception of the Cubs is only part of the rub here.  The Brewers are having a fantastic season, and it's a great story—but it's been outrageously overhyped by the media.  And that's the point of this article: The media shapes public opinion...and public opinion shapes betting lines.

Your weekend warrior will bet the Cubs to lose.  Your "informed" investor will bet the Brewers to win.  And both of their decisions will be influenced by the press.

So how did the games turn out? The Marlins and the Cubs both cashed in their underdog lines: Florida won 7-4; Chicago won 6-2. 

The next time you think about making a sports investment, remember the media markets:  Which team receives more exposure? What's the public perception of them? If you take the media factor into account, you'll improve your overall accuracy more than 10 percent...and you'll cash in far more underdog investments. 

Want more?  Visit us online at www.investingsports.com for a wealth of sports investment tips and tricks.

 

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