MLB All-Star Break: Top 10 Storylines to Watch in the 2nd Half

The 2012 MLB All-Star break marks the unofficial midway point of the season.

As the old saying goes, “It’s not how you start, it’s how you finish.” This should be music to the ears of front offices and players who have not met expectations so far in 2012. The Midsummer Classic allows the MLB season to write itself a new chapter.

Readers of literature like to make predictions about what will happen next before they continue reading. This slideshow will do the same for the book that is the 2012 MLB season.

Surely each franchise has its own questions heading into the All-Star break, but today we will look at the biggest questions across the entire league. They will concern the game’s brightest stars, whose performances will have a significant impact on the league’s playoff picture.

Without further delay, let’s look at 10 topics in MLB that should become water-cooler talk in the next few days.

What storylines will catch your interest following the All-Star break? Feel free to add them in the comments section.

*All statistics updated through July 9, 2012 unless otherwise noted.

Will Tim Lincecum Return to Form?

San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Tim Lincecum continues to make headlines in 2012, but not for the reasons he would like. Lincecum has pitched very poorly this season—and not just for his standards.

According to David Schoenfield, a senior baseball writer for ESPN.com, Lincecum’s 6.42 ERA is last amongst qualified MLB starting pitchers. Schoenfield had this to say about why Lincecum has struggled:

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“…it’s more than just bad luck that’s plaguing Lincecum: It’s mostly bad pitching. He has little command of his fastball and hitters are taking a lot of pitches, leading to walks and high pitch counts. His offspeed stuff can still produce strikeouts—in part, because he’s getting to a lot of two-strike counts as hitters work deep into the count. However, Lincecum’s inability to make good pitches can be seen in what happens when hitters get ahead in the count: They’re hitting .345/.538/.605 in those situations; a year ago they hit .269/.457/.446.”

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Lincecum admitted his struggles have been with mechanics and locating the fastball. According to Alex Pavlovic of MercuryNews.com:

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“[Lincecum] said the mechanical adjustments he has to make are ‘more about fine-tuning,’ and reiterated that he’s healthy and has been throughout the first half.”

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Giants manager Bruce Bochy continues to have confidence in Lincecum, as he has kept him in the starting rotation heading into the second half.

Thankfully for Lincecum, the Giants have played well this season. San Francisco trails the Los Angeles Dodgers by 0.5 games in the NL West and the Atlanta Braves by 0.5 games for the fifth playoff spot in the NL. The pitching staff’s collective 3.63 ERA is fifth-best in the NL.

Despite the strong play of his team, Lincecum needs to improve in the second half. Otherwise, the baseball world might start to wonder if Lincecum’s pitching dominance has ended.

Since being selected 10^th overall in the 2006 MLB Amateur Draft, Lincecum has established himself as one of the game’s most electrifying pitchers. Lincecum, a four-time All-Star, won the NL Cy Young Award in 2008 and 2009. He has led the NL in strikeouts three times, and he averages 241 strikeouts per season.

Lincecum also has a unique presence on the mound. At 5’11” and 175 pounds, Lincecum is smaller than most MLB pitchers but throws just as hard. His pitching motion, though, is why people call him “The Freak.”

According to Michael Freer of ESPN.com:

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“[Lincecum] recoils at the start of his delivery, turning his back to the plate. Putting his entire body in motion, and with a long stride to the plate, Lincecum then unwinds his body as he throws.”

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This wind-up, which Lincecum says his father taught him, has allowed him to avoid injuries throughout his career. In 2012, though, it has not been as effective as in previous years.

Hopefully for Lincecum and MLB, he can turn it around in 2012, because it would be a shame to see him fall off in only his sixth major league season.

How Much More Will Stephen Strasburg Pitch in 2012?

Washington Nationals starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg has helped lead his team to the best record in the NL heading into the All-Star break. Strasburg’s first half has put him in the 2012 All-Star Game and in the NL Cy Young Award race.

Upon being selected first overall in the 2009 MLB Amateur Draft, Strasburg was one of the most hyped pitching prospects in history. At San Diego State University, Strasburg combined 100 mph fastballs with outstanding control. Strasburg was the only college player on the 2008 USA Olympic baseball team.

Since completing a historic MLB debut on June 8, 2010, Strasburg has not disappointed production-wise. According to Thomas Boswell from The Washington Post (as of July 5):

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“Strasburg has started 33 games in his career, the equivalent of one full season…If he played a full career at current levels, he’d rank No. 1 amongst starting pitchers in baseball since 1920 in many categories, including strikeouts per nine innings (11.6), ERA (2.68), least walks plus hits per inning (a 1.027 WHIP) and best strikeout-to-walk ratio (5.17).”

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Why, then, would the Nationals consider capping Strasburg’s innings pitched number? Injuries.

Strasburg has already undergone Tommy John surgery at age 23. He pitched only 24.0 innings in 2011 as a result. Pitching Strasburg into September increases the chances of another Tommy John surgery, which would place his career in jeopardy.

The intimidating right-hander has already pitched 99.0 innings in 2012. He has never pitched more than 123 innings in a season, even outside of MLB.

Boswell had this to say about Strasburg’s injury history:

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“…[Strasburg] has gone on the disabled list for shoulder tightness and had elbow ligament replacement surgery. He came out of a game after three innings because he looked ready to collapse from the heat. He’s left a game early with biceps tightness and another after cutting his finger clipping his nails. And he left a game this season in part because he got ‘hot stuff’ in a place where it doesn’t belong…Some of this was serious, some precautionary and some bizarre. But look how much there’s been.”

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The Nationals will allow Strasburg to pitch more than 123 innings in 2012. Strasburg will likely reach that number by the beginning of August. However, Washington will likely not allow Strasburg’s 2012 season to go beyond 160 innings. This means he will not pitch in the postseason, should the Nationals maintain their NL East lead.

Unfortunately for Nationals fans, they will not see Strasburg much longer this season. In the long run, though, this decision is for the best.

How Will Elite Outfielders Returning from Injury Fare?

Matt Kemp. Jacoby Ellsbury. Carl Crawford. Brett Gardner. Jason Bay. Vernon Wells. Grady Sizemore.

This is not a list of the top vote-getters in the outfield for the 2012 MLB All-Star Game. This is a list of outfielders who could return from serious injury sometime in the second half of the season.

If these players were healthy, the MLB standings would look a lot different heading into the All-Star break. Let’s skim over what makes these outfielders’ absences significant.

 

Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers

2011: 161 games, .324/.399/.586, 39 HR, 126 RBI, 115 runs, 74 BB, 40 SB

Career Highlights: 2x All-Star, 2x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger, second in NL MVP voting (2011)

2012 Salary: $10.25 million

Injury: strained left hamstring

Expected Return: July 13

 

Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox

2011: 158 games, .321/.376/.552, 32 HR, 105 RBI, 119 runs, 52 BB, 39 SB, 212 hits

Career Highlights: third in AL Rookie of the Year voting (2008), second in AL MVP voting (2011), 1x All-Star, 1x Gold Glove, 1x Silver Slugger

2012 Salary: $8.05 million

Injury: dislocated shoulder

Expected Return: July 13

 

Carl Crawford, Boston Red Sox

2011: 130 games, .255/.289/.405, 11 HR, 56 RBI, 65 runs, 23 BB, 18 SB, 7 3B

Career Highlights: 4x All-Star, 1x Gold Glove, 1x Silver Slugger, seventh in AL MVP voting (2010)

2012 salary: $20,357,142

Injury: offseason wrist surgery, partially torn UCL in left elbow, mild left groin strain

Expected Return: mid/late August

 

Brett Gardner, New York Yankees

2011: 159 games, .259/.345/.369, 7 HR, 36 RBI, 87 runs, 60 BB, 49 SB, 8 3B

Career Highlights: 1x World Series champion, 1x SB champion (2011)

2012 Salary: $2.8 million

Injury: strained right elbow

Expected Return: mid/late July

 

Jason Bay, New York Mets

2011: 123 games, .245/.329/.374, 12 HR, 57 RBI, 59 runs, 56 BB, 11 SB

Career Highlights: NL Rookie of the Year (2004), 3x All-Star, 1x Silver Slugger, seventh in AL MVP voting (2009)

2012 Salary: $18.125 million

Injury: concussion

Expected Return: July 17

 

Vernon Wells, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

2011: 131 games, .218/.248/.412, 25 HR, 66 RBI, 60 runs, 20 BB, 9 SB

Career Highlights: 3x All-Star, 3x Gold Glove, 1x Silver Slugger, eighth in AL MVP voting (2003)

2012 Salary: $24,187,500

Injury: surgery to repair torn ligament in right thumb

Expected Return: July 20

 

Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians

2009 (last full season): 106 games, .248/.343/.445, 18 HR, 64 RBI, 73 runs, 60 BB, 13 SB

Career Highlights: 3x All-Star, 2x Gold Glove, 1x Silver Slugger, 10^th in AL MVP voting (2008)

2012 Salary: $5 million

Injury: surgery on lower back

Expected Return: N/A

What Will Philadelphia Phillies Do at Trade Deadline?

The Philadelphia Phillies have many decisions to make before July 31. These decisions will imply that the Phillies have thrown in the towel on 2012, or that they plan to win a sixth straight NL East championship.

Second baseman Chase Utley returned to the lineup on June 27 after missing all of 2012 up until then. Utley hit a home run in his very first at-bat, suggesting the five-time All-Star's knees would hold up.

In 10 games this season, though, Utley has only three RBI. Utley’s .235/.278/.412 slash line is clearly the worst of his career.

First baseman Ryan Howard returned to the lineup for the first time in 2012 on July 6. Howard went 2-4 with a double that night, suggesting the three-time All-Star’s Achilles tendon will hold up.

Starting pitcher Roy Halladay has not played since May 29 due to a strained shoulder. Halladay could make a rehab start on July 12 for Single-A Clearwater.

What remains to be seen is the kind of impact these Phillies cornerstones will make in the second half of 2012.

Outfielder Shane Victorino and starting pitchers Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton will become unrestricted free agents after the 2012 season. Rather than let them walk, the Phillies would be smart to trade them if the team cannot re-sign them next year.

Philadelphia has MLB’s second-highest payroll in 2012 at just over $174.5 million. The way the Phillies have played this season, should the team trade away Hamels, Victorino and Blanton, essentially suggesting plans to rebuild? Or, should the team keep them and hope Utley, Howard and Halladay return to form for the playoff run?

Thinking ahead to 2013, Utley, catcher Carlos Ruiz and outfielder Hunter Pence become unrestricted free agents following that season. How many of these players will the Phillies re-sign?

Many of these questions will be answered soon, so keep an eye on the situation in Philadelphia.

Will Baltimore Orioles and Pittsburgh Pirates Continue to Surprise?

If the 2012 season ended on July 9, the Baltimore Orioles and the Pittsburgh Pirates would make the postseason.

The Orioles have not made the playoffs since 1997, and the Pirates have not made the playoffs since 1992. In fact, neither franchise has posted a winning record since last reaching the postseason.

Baltimore holds the second wild card spot in the AL, and Pittsburgh has a one game lead in the NL Central.

Neither team has hit the ball particularly well this season. The Orioles slash line is .240/.302/.402, while the Pirates slash line is .246/.300/.404. For perspective, the MLB team average slash line is .254/.319/.406.

As a result, both teams have had to win a lot of close games this season. Baltimore’s 30 saves and Pittsburgh’s 29 saves are Nos. 2 and 3 in the majors, respectively.

The Pirates have pitched much better than the Orioles so far, which makes Pittsburgh more likely to be playing in October.

Pittsburgh’s 3.48 ERA is fifth-best in the majors, whereas Baltimore’s 4.05 ERA puts them in the middle of the pack. The Pirates also have a better WHIP than the Orioles.

Pirates starting pitcher James McDonald has pitched like a NL Cy Young candidate, while offseason acquisitions A.J. Burnett and Erik Bedard have worked out well for general manager Neal Huntington.

Baltimore swept Pittsburgh in their June series. These two teams also played in the 1971 World Series, as the Pirates won in seven games.

Will they meet up again in the World Series 41 years later? Not likely, but they are on their way towards having their best seasons in two decades.

Will Toronto Blue Jays Find Stability in Starting Rotation?

Ten different pitchers have started a game for the Toronto Blue Jays this season. To make matters worse, ace Ricky Romero is having the worst season of his career.

Romero’s 5.22 ERA is much higher than his career 3.84 ERA. He also leads the AL in walks (58).

Prior to this season, Romero was one of baseball’s most underrated pitchers. Romero has won at least 13 games in each of the last three seasons, and he finished 10^th in AL Cy Young Award voting in 2011.

Aside from Romero, let’s look at the nine other Blue Jays who have started a game in 2012.

Henderson Alvarez: The 22-year-old right-hander has a 5-7 record and a 4.36 ERA in 2012.

Brandon Morrow: Morrow has not pitched since suffering a left oblique injury on June 11. According to Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com, Morrow has started throwing from 150 feet to get stronger. The fifth overall pick of the 2006 MLB Amateur Draft was pitching well for the Blue Jays before the injury. Morrow has a 7-4 record, a 3.01 ERA and an MLB-leading three shutouts in 2012.

Kyle Drabek: Drabek, one of the players the Blue Jays acquired from the Philadelphia Phillies in the Roy Halladay trade, underwent the second Tommy John surgery of his career on June 19. He will not return in 2012. Drabek was 4-7 with a 4.67 ERA in 13 starts. Hopefully the 18^th overall pick in the 2006 MLB Amateur Draft, and son of former Cy Young Award winner Doug Drabek, will go on to have a long and productive MLB career despite his elbow problems.

Drew Hutchison: The 21-year-old Hutchison has already encountered a serious injury in his first major league season. Hutchison has not pitched since June 15 with a sprained UCL. He will not resume pitching again for another few weeks and could return in September if all goes well. In 2012, Hutchison has a 5-3 record and a 4.60 ERA.

Brett Cecil: Cecil, the 38^th overall pick in the 2007 MLB Amateur Draft, has a 2-1 record and a 6.75 ERA in five starts for the Blue Jays in 2012.

Aaron Laffey: Laffey started the season in the bullpen, but injuries have forced him into the starting rotation. Fortunately for Toronto, Laffey is having a career year. Laffey credits his new-found success to mastering the mental aspect of pitching. In seven games and three starts for Toronto, Laffey is 0-1 with a 2.67 ERA. His career ERA is a 4.22.

Carlos Villanueva: Like Aaron Laffey, Villanueva started 2012 in the Blue Jays' bullpen. Also like Laffey, Villanueva has a career-low ERA (3.05). Villanueva is 3-0 this season.

Jesse Chavez: Chavez is 0-1 with a 7.08 ERA, spanning over seven appearances and two starts.

Joel Carreno: Carreno has not pitched in 2012 like he did in 2011. Last season, Carreno was 1-0 with a 1.15 ERA in 11 appearances for Toronto. This season, Carreno is 0-2 with a 6.60 ERA in six appearances (two starts).

Maybe this will make the Blue Jays feel better: Roy Halladay has not pitched for the Philadelphia Phillies since May 28 and has a sub-.500 record in 2012.

Will Boston Red Sox Finish 2012 Positively?

Seemingly nothing has gone as planned for the Boston Red Sox over the last 10 months. To prove it, let’s look at a timeline from then until now.

 

Sept. 28, 2011: A 4-3 loss to the Baltimore Orioles completes a 7-20 September and knocks the Red Sox out of the AL playoff picture.

Sept. 30, 2011: The Red Sox fire manager Terry Francona.

Oct. 21, 2011: General manager Theo Epstein resigns.

Oct. 25, 2011:  The Red Sox announce starting pitcher John Lackey will have Tommy John surgery and will miss the 2012 season.

Nov. 11, 2011: The Red Sox lose closer Jonathan Papelbon to the Philadelphia Phillies in free agency.

Nov. 29, 2011: The Red Sox hire Bobby Valentine to be their new manager. Valentine had not managed in MLB since 2002.

Jan. 17, 2012: Outfielder Carl Crawford has surgery on his left wrist.

Feb. 17, 2012: Starting pitcher Tim Wakefield retires.

Mar. 1, 2012: Catcher Jason Varitek retires.

Apr. 4, 2012: Closer Andrew Bailey undergoes thumb surgery.

Apr. 8, 2012: The Detroit Tigers sweep the Red Sox in the season’s opening series.

Apr. 13, 2012: Outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury dislocates his right shoulder in the 2012 home opener.

Apr. 20, 2012: The Red Sox lose to the New York Yankees in the game celebrating the 100^th anniversary of Fenway Park.

Apr. 26, 2012: The Red Sox announce Crawford will miss three months with a sprained left UCL.

May 6, 2012: The Red Sox complete their second five-game losing streak of the season.

June 10, 2012: Relief pitcher Rich Hill goes on the disabled list with left forearm soreness.

June 16, 2012: Starting pitcher Josh Beckett goes on the disabled list with an inflamed right shoulder.

Jun. 24, 2012: Starting pitcher Clay Buchholz goes on the disabled list with gastrointestinal issues, and the Red Sox trade corner infielder Kevin Youkilis to the Chicago White Sox.

July 1, 2012: Third baseman Will Middlebrooks leaves the game with left hamstring tightness.

July 3, 2012: Starting pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka goes on the disabled list with a stiff neck, and the Red Sox release relief pitcher Bobby Jenks.

July 5, 2012: Crawford strains his left groin while rehabbing with Double-A Portland.

July 6, 2012: Second baseman Dustin Pedroia goes on the disabled list with a hyper-extended right thumb.

July 7, 2012: The Red Sox complete their third five-game losing streak of the season, this time losing to their archrival, the New York Yankees.

 

All this bad luck has put Boston in fourth place in the AL East heading into the All-Star break. Once the injury list gets shorter, maybe the Red Sox can turn their season around.

How Long Will Colorado Rockies Four-Man Rotation Last?

On June 19, the Colorado Rockies cut down to a four-man starting pitching rotation, giving each starter a 75 pitch limit.

Coors Field, the Rockies' home ballpark, could be the biggest factor in making the switch. The high altitude and dense air of Denver have turned Coors Field into a pitcher’s worst nightmare.

From 1995-2001, the Rockies had a 6.14 ERA at home. This changed in 2002, according to Troy E. Renck of denverpost.com:

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“Determining that the baseballs dried out and became harder when placed in a closet, the Rockies began storing them in a humidor in 2002. It’s a climate-controlled environmental chamber designed to help mute the offense.”

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The humidor has helped lower ERAs at Coors Field, but pitchers still struggle there. In regards to the air up there, Renck says:

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“The byproduct from these conditions is that it forces pitchers to make dramatic fixes and fall into traps. They experiment with different arm slots to create more movement on pitches in Denver. When that fails, and frustration develops over the cheap hits that fall in the spacious outfield, they try to miss bats. Aiming for strikeouts leads to huge mistakes.”

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Rockies pitchers, both past and present, have noticed a big difference pitching in Coors Field compared to other ballparks. This creates an unequal situation in Colorado compared to other MLB locations.

Will the four-man rotation change the fortunes of pitchers in Colorado? Will anything change those fortunes?

Maybe. Since June 19, the Rockies have gone 8-11, which yields a higher winning percentage than their 33-52 overall mark.

Is Albert Pujols Past His Prime?

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim first baseman Albert Pujols has not played in the MLB All-Star Game since 2010. Prior to 2011, Pujols had not missed an All-Star Game since 2002.

Pujols has not been himself since joining the Angels. His .268/.334/.460 slash line is a career-worst in all three categories. Most MLB players would love to post such numbers, but Pujols has a career slash line of .325/.416/.609.

“The Machine” is also on pace to hit fewer than 32 home runs for the first time in his career. It took him 110 at-bats before hitting his first one this season.

Even though we are talking about Albert Pujols, the Angels made a huge mistake in giving a player on the wrong side of 30 a back-loaded 10-year, $240 million contract. Pujols will turn 41 when his contract expires in 2021; will he even play that long?

Pujols will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer and will be remembered as arguably the best player of the 2000s. What about the 2010s, though?

Here are some of Pujols’ career highlights:

9x All-Star, 6x Silver Slugger, 3x NL MVP, 4x NL MVP runner-up, 2x Gold Glove, 2x World Series champion, 2001 NL Rookie of the Year

Will New York Yankees Maintain MLB's Best Record?

Like the Boston Red Sox, the New York Yankees have encountered its fair share of injuries. Unlike the Red Sox, the Yankees have adapted wonderfully.

Heading into the 2012 All-Star Break, the Yankees have the majors’ best record.

Numerous Yankee pitchers have caught the injury bug in 2012. Starting pitcher Michael Pineda, who the Yankees acquired in an offseason trade with the Seattle Mariners, ended his season before it started. Relief pitcher Joba Chamberlain has also not pitched this season. Starting pitcher Andy Pettitte went on the disabled list on June 28 to heal a fractured left ankle. Ace pitcher C.C. Sabathia has not pitched since June 24 due to a strained left groin, but he should be back after the break.

Perhaps the most surprising story comes from closer Mariano Rivera. Rivera tore his right ACL on May 3 while shagging fly balls during batting practice. The 42-year-old Rivera plans to pitch again in 2013. The Yankees are hoping they have not seen the last of Rivera, the all-time saves leader in MLB, especially because of a freak accident.

Outfielder Brett Gardner also remains shelved from a strained right elbow he suffered after playing only nine games in 2012. Gardner hopes to return sometime in July.

The Yankees have the oldest average batter age and the third-oldest average pitcher age in MLB. They also have the league’s highest payroll in 2012. What some might consider risks have paid off so far.

At 38 years old, shortstop Derek Jeter continues to play at an elite level. The only thing missing from his resume is an AL MVP Award.

Third baseman Alex Rodriguez has three AL MVP Awards and 642 home runs. At 36 years old, Rodriguez can still hit 30 home runs a season at a .270 clip.

First baseman Mark Teixeira is hitting 30 points below his career batting average, but his power numbers have not dropped off. Similar things can be said about outfielder Curtis Granderson. Both players have passed the 30-year mark.

The Yankees are on pace to win 99 games in 2012. When their pitchers return from the disabled list, AL teams should fear the club more than they already do.

The Texas Rangers are battling New York for the best record in MLB. Though Texas has represented the AL in the past two World Series, the Yankees are still the Yankees.

You either love them or hate them, but you should never bet against them.