Fantasy Baseball Draft Preparation: First Base

As you enter your drafts, you should have an idea of who you want to target at each position.  Unfortunately, there is no way that you will end up with every guy that you would like, drafts just don’t work that way. 

Along with who you would like to have you should plan for what I like to call my “worst-case scenario” guy.  That means that you need to identify the worst guy at the position that you still would be happy with. 

If you don’t land this player, you would be unhappy with him and the production you expect to get.  So, where should you expect different first basemen to be picked in your drafts? 

The following should help you plan your draft and where you need to consider picking a player that you are targeting.

Round 1

Chances are that there will be anywhere between one to four first basemen to come of the board in the first round, but we will project that there will be three.  Somewhere between the first overall pick and the fourth, I guarantee that you will see the name Albert Pujols drafted.

He is perhaps the most consistent player in all of fantasy, and if you want to anchor your team with Pujols, you better hope you get one of the top four picks. 

If he lasts longer than that, you should coast to a championship, because the people you are playing with aren’t smart players.

The next first sacker to be selected should be Miguel Cabrera.  Cabrera consistently hits for a fairly high average, although he hit under .300 for the first time in three seasons in 2008. 

He will also hit between 33-37 homers and drive in over 110 runs.  Miggy generally is drafted on or around the seventh overall pick, and is good value for that selection.

The final player at the position that is likely to be selected in the first round is Philadelphia’s Ryan Howard. 

He obviously has the best power at this, or any other position, however his batting average has dropped significantly over the past couple of seasons and it has certainly affected his draft position. 

After his 58-homer season of 2006, Howard was among the top few players selected in all fantasy drafts. 

Three years later and after batting .251, Howard now generally is drafted at the end of the first round, and can be expected to be selected anywhere from 10th-15th overall.

Round 2

Although he could go at the end of the first round, Mark Teixeira will most likely slip into Round Two.  He has hit over .300 in three of his last four campaigns, and hasn’t hit less than 30 homers since his rookie year.

Tex has been changing teams like college students change their majors lately, but with his eight-year contract with the Yankees, those days are over.  With the stability of knowing where he will play, his statistics should stabilize as well. 

I don’t anticipate him ever passing his 2005 numbers of 43 homers and 144 RBI, but a repeat of his recent statistics is almost guaranteed.

Next off the board will be Lance Berkman, drafted somewhere in the middle of round two.  Berkman was on his way to an MVP season before he fell off a cliff in the second half.

Berkman’s numbers don’t look bad when you look at the whole year (.312/29/106), but he only had seven homers in the second half, and only two in September.  He stole 18 bases last season, but don’t draft him looking for a repeat in that category. 

Still, on the whole, Berkman is a great, consistent hitter, and can easily be your starting first baseman.

A former MVP, Justin Morneau will also likely go in the second round of your draft.  Morneau’s 23 homers in 2008 was his lowest in three seasons, but he still hit .300 and drove in 129 runs. 

Morneau could possibly slip into the third round, but he will most likely be drafted towards the end of round two.  He doesn’t have the power of the top options at the position, but he hits for a higher average than the players below him.

Round 3

I don’t completely understand it, but for some reason Prince Fielder has fallen way down draft boards in 2009.  It was just one season ago that Fielder connected on 50 homers and was being drafted in the first round.

In 2008, his power dropped to just 34 jacks and he drove in 102 runs.  His average may have also dropped 12 points, but he will only be 25 this season, and there’s no reason to think that he can’t get back to his big power numbers. 

To me, his a no-brainer as a solid option to be a number one first baseman and one of the top five at the position.  If you can wait until this point to draft him, you have yourself a steal.  If you like Fielder, you might want to take him a little sooner; he could go at the end of round two.

Adrian Gonzalez has seen his production increase throughout his career, and had a great year in 2008.  He plays in a huge ballpark with virtually no production around him, but Gonzalez was still able to hit 36 homers and drive in 119 runs.

You would like to see him hit a little higher than the .279 he hit in ‘08, but his power numbers are among the best at the position.

The Padres have basically let anyone go who has any makes any kind of money, so there will be no reason for any pitchers to throw him anything he can hit. 

He still should give you good value at the end of the third round, but there is some reservations of taking him too high.

This is where the first drop off in production happens.  Most, if not all, of the players above this round will be really solid options for you to anchor your offense at first base.  Once you get to this spot, you are getting guys who are definitely a notch below the first group. 

You may get a decent average, you may get some good pop, but you are to the point where you better have gotten solid players at other positions and you are still fine with a lesser guy at first base.  They are still legitimate options to be your starter at first, but you will see a difference in the numbers.

Round 4

The only player I can see being selected in the fourth round is the Red Sox Kevin Youkilis.  Talk about coming out of nowhere.  Youkilis crushed his career highs in almost every category. 

If you can believe that he will do it again, then Youkilis will be a good value in the fourth round.  However, if you look at his past statistics, there isn’t really a reason to think that he will hit 29 homers ever again. 

Youkilis will most likely be selected towards the end of the fourth round, but it is easy to see him giving you sixth round value.  There is nothing in his career that leads you to believe that his power is legit, and the batting average even looks to be higher than it should. 

He is a fairly big risk as a fourth round selection, but will clearly go around the middle of the round.

Round 6

Here comes perhaps the biggest wild card of the draft, Rangers’ 1B Chris Davis.  Davis entered the league at the end of June and proceeded to hit 17 homers and drive in 55 runs in just 80 games.  The power is legitimate, but will it continue?  Or will major league pitchers figure him out?

If you have people who crave young players, Davis could be drafted as early as late in the third round. If you are playing with more conservative people he last into the 8th round.

Chances are he will go somewhere in the sixth, which is probably where he should go, so if you are targeting Davis figure a good place to take him without reaching too far would be the sixth round.

Carlos Pena has hit 77 homers over the past two seasons, but his batting average will cause him to fall farther down the draft board.  You can look at his career stats and see that he hit .282 in 2007, but if you look over his entire eight years, you will see that the sub .250 average is more the norm. 

He is a great value in the seventh round, and isn’t a bad fall back if you decide to draft other positions earlier.  He won’t help your batting average, but the power is a nice consolation prize.

Round 7

Once a borderline first round pick, few have fallen faster than the Cubs’ Derrek Lee.  Through injury and a lack of power, Lee has now turned into a low-end starter.  He still hits around .300, but at just around 20 homers it just isn’t great production at the first base position. 

In my opinion, Lee’s value is much lower than this, I couldn’t see drafting him this high.  I see Lee more in the group of Delgado, Konerko, and Giambi, but it seems that most fantasy players don’t agree with me. 

The end of the seventh is around where he gets selected, so if you are targeting Lee, be ready to pick him here.

Joey Votto has been lasting until the seventh rounds of drafts, and in some cases falling past Lee, and that I can’t understand.  Votto will hit you right around .300, he will give you 20-25 homers, a handful of stolen bases, and close to 90 RBI. 

Given his minor league numbers, Votto should continue to produce at around the same level, and his speed numbers could increase some. 

If you are given the choice in this round between Derrek Lee on the decline, or Joey Votto on the rise, I would pick Votto every time.

Round 8

Aubrey Huff became fantasy relevant once again in 2008 after one of the best season’s of his career.

His .304 average with 32 homers and 108 RBI were all career bests since 2003, but it appears that fantasy players don’t think that he can do it again, and truthfully I can’t say I blame them.

 He had three fairly average seasons before the statistical spike last year, and if you would like to have Huff, you can bet that he lasts into the eighth round.

Round 9

James Loney doesn’t give you the type of power that you would like from your first baseman, and he probably never will.  Loney still hits for a good enough average that he is worth having on your roster, however, you better find some good power elsewhere if you plan on having him as your starter. 

He probably won’t ever hit much more than 15 homers, but if he can hit .315 he should be a decent value at this position.

It was the story of two seasons for Carlos Delgado as the Mets’ fans were trying to run him out of town in the first half, and then calling him MVP in the second half. 

Delgado has had a long, productive career, but at age 37, can he possibly continue this production?  He is a pretty large risk, even at this point of the draft, but could be a huge reward and help your team if he is able to repeat his 2008 statistics.

Round 14

First base goes dry for quite a while until Paul Konerko shows up around the 14th round.  Once a perennial 35-40 homer guy, Konerko has battled inconsistency and injury over the past two seasons.  His batting average has dropped from around .280-.300 down to .240-.260. 

Konerko’s home run numbers have dropped for five straight seasons, and so has his draft position.  Konerko is a low risk/high reward type of player, and even if you drafted a quality first baseman earlier in the draft, he is a good value here.

Round 16

After dealing with steroids and injuries, Jason Giambi gets the old "mulligan" back in Oakland.  He is going to hit .250 or below, but will also most likely hit over 30 home runs.

It can’t do anything but help him to be out of New York and back to Oakland, where the media (and even the fans) don’t seem to care as much. 

Giambi could be a great late round sleeper as a guy who could hit a good number of home runs.  Like Konerko, even if you already have a quality 1B on your roster, he is a great backup plan.

If you still haven’t drafted your first baseman by now, you will be playing the waiver wire all year long at the position.  Guys past this point should not, and will not be, starting 1Bs on championship caliber teams. 

These are either decent bench options, or younger guys that you are taking a flier on.  Here you will find guys who don’t hit for a good average with decent power, .290 average guys with around 10-15 homers, or guys that we don’t know too much about.  Beware ending up with more than one from this category.

Round 18

Casey Kotchman can easily be called a bust for what he has done so far. He was supposed to be the Angels’ first baseman of the future, but between not being able to stay on the field, and a horrible lack of power, he now ends up starting in Atlanta. 

Kotchman is a pick at the end of the draft, or even someone you pick up in free agency to deal with injury problems.  He will most likely hit between 10-15 homers and drive in 70-75 runs. 

There should be better options for you to pick from even at these late stages of the draft.

Mike Jacobs will give you good power numbers, but it is his batting average that causes him to fall this far in drafts.  He has the ability to hit 30-35 homers, but he will almost definitely hit .240-.250. 

Jacobs will now be the starting first baseman in Kansas City, but shouldn’t be a starter on your fantasy team.  He is a good bench option, and in the last rounds of the draft he could help you if you have injury or ineffectiveness problems.

Although he is a horrendous defender, the Royals’ Billy Butler should be 1B eligible in most leagues this season.  Butler showed great power at all levels of the minors, but so far it hasn’t translated to major league success. 

He has yet to top 11 homers in a season, and his batting average actually dropped 17 points in his second season.  Butler is a low risk/potentially really high reward player, and is someone definitely worth taking a chance on later in drafts.

Round 21

Adam LaRoche is the definition of the average player.  He will hit around .270, 20-25 homers, and drive in around 80 runs.  If you are starting Adam LaRoche, you have a glaring hole in your roster and you need to find a replacement eventually.  

If he is an emergency player on your team, that is the role he belongs in.  At the very end of the draft, he could be worth a roster spot.

Late Rounds or Undrafted:

Todd Helton (COL), Lyle Overbay (TOR), Ryan Garko (CLE), Daric Barton (OAK), Gaby Sanchez(FLA), Travis Ishikawa (SF), Kendry Morales (LAA), Conor Jackson (ARI),  Bryan LaHair (SEA), Nick Johnson (WAS)

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