NL Cy Young Award Rankings: Johnny Cueto Makes a Run for the Top

Could the heat blistering most of the country right now also be affecting pitchers? (In the case of Stephen Strasburg, who had to leave his start last Saturday due to dehydration, the answer is undoubtedly yes.) 

This isn't meant to trivialize the effect high summer temperatures can have on a player standing in the heat and pushing himself to full exertion. It has to be grueling—and that's been reflected in the recent performances of the top National League Cy Young Award candidates.

Over the past few weeks, two pitchers looked to be emerging as the heavy favorites. But each of them has taken a step back in their most recent couple of starts. Perhaps it's the weather taking a toll, or maybe these players are eying the halfway point of the season and looking forward to getting some rest.

That has led to a shake-up in our rankings, and maybe that will continue among six to eight candidates through the rest of the season. For this week, however, these are the top five contenders for the NL Cy Young Award.

Honorable Mentions

Zack Greinke, Milwaukee Brewers

Greinke was roughed up in his last start, giving up five runs and six hits to the Miami Marlins. He also tallied four strikeouts, the third consecutive outing in which Greinke struck out fewer than five batters.

Across the board, Greinke's numbers might not look as impressive compared to his NL peers, but he still ranks among the league's top 15 pitchers in most every important category. That should make him an extremely popular target at the trade deadline.

Greinke is also highly regarded in wins above replacement. FanGraphs rates him as the best pitcher in the NL with a 3.5 WAR, based on a 2.38 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and 2.79 xFIP that shows he's pitching better than his 3.08 ERA would indicate. Baseball-Reference ranks Greinke fourth with a 2.7 WAR.

James McDonald, Pittsburgh Pirates

Of all the top NL Cy Young contenders, McDonald might have had the best week. Facing the Astros, McDonald gave up two runs and four hits over seven innings. However, he also walked a season-high five batters.

McDonald isn't letting many runners on base and thus isn't giving up many runs. His 2.45 ERA is fourth in the NL. His 1.00 WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched) is the league's third-best total, and opposing batters are hitting .197 against him, the second-lowest average among NL pitchers.

Then there's the fact that the Pirates lead the NL Central. Contending for a playoff spot will only bring McDonald more attention as the season progresses.

Chris Capuano, Los Angeles Dodgers

In four of his past five starts, Capuano has allowed two runs or fewer. In three of those games, he only gave up one run. That includes his most recent start, in which he allowed one run and six hits in six innings against the Reds. 

Capuano's 2.62 ERA is tied for fifth in the NL. He has 95 strikeouts in 106.1 innings, giving him an average of 8.0 K's per nine innings. If he maintains that pace, it will the third-best ratio of Capuano's career. Did the Dodgers expect an ace type of performance from a 33-year-old who was signed to be the team's fifth starter? 

5. Ryan Vogelsong, San Francisco Giants

Last week: Unranked

After being snubbed from the NL All-Star team, Ryan Vogelsong reminded CSN Bay Area's Andrew Baggarly of something he said earlier in the season. "People don't take me seriously," he said.

Perhaps we've been guilty of that too when putting together these NL Cy Young Award rankings. Vogelsong has been one of the league's best pitchers all season. In his 15 starts, he's given up four runs in only one of them. Seven times this year, he's allowed one earned run or less.

It's easy to wonder if Vogelsong's performance last season was a fluke. After all, he hadn't pitched in the majors since 2006 and was toiling in the minors with the Phillies and Giants before he got the call up to the bigs to replace the injured Barry Zito. Since then, he's been a rock in the Giants rotation.

Vogelsong leads the NL with a 2.26 ERA. His 1.11 WHIP ranks among the 10 best in the league, as does his opponents' batting average of .217. Vogelsong might not strike out the same number of batters as the league's top pitchers do, but he gets them out effectively.

People should be taking him seriously, if they haven't been already.

4. Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals

Last week: No. 3

Ranking Stephen Strasburg fourth on this week's list feels kind of silly to me. But moving him up wouldn't have been right after he pitched only three innings in his previous start, giving up three runs and four walks against the Braves.

Heat-related issues were the cause of Strasburg's performance, and the Nationals thankfully pulled him from the game when they did. Judging by Adam Kilgore's account in the Washington Post, Strasburg's condition was rather scary.

Hopefully, Strasburg hydrates properly during his next start and rebounds nicely. (Pitching in temperatures under 106 degrees might also help, though there's no guarantee of that.) He might also add a start in the All-Star game to his season résumé.

Strasburg is second in the NL with 122 strikeouts but leads the majors with a ratio of 11.81 K's per nine innings. His 2.81 ERA is among the 10 best in the league, while a 1.08 WHIP ranks fifth. Opposing batters are hitting .217 against him. Only five NL pitchers have a better mark.

3. Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants

Last week: No. 2

I'm willing to bet that Matt Cain falls no lower than third in these rankings through the rest of the season. I still believe he'll be one of the top two candidates for the NL Cy Young Award by the time voters begin casting their ballots.

But in putting together these rankings every week, consideration has to be given to how a pitcher performs during that seven-day period. Otherwise, if we're just ranking who we think will win the Cy Young Award, there won't be much change in these rankings. It will be like the college football polls.

Having said all that, Cain drops a spot on our list following two relatively subpar starts. Giving up three runs in 6.2 innings in his last appearance is perfectly respectable. That helped put the Giants in a position to win (though they eventually lost to the Nationals). For the second straight outing, though, he served up two home runs.

Cain allowed five runs and 11 hits to the Reds in his previous start, arguably his worst of the season.

Only Justin Verlander has pitched more innings than Cain's 120.1 at this point in the season. His 118 strikeouts are tied for the NL's third-highest total, while his 2.62 ERA is tied for fifth. Only one other NL pitcher has a better WHIP than Cain's 0.96, and a .209 opponents batting average is the fifth-best mark in the league.

Cain should be on his way back up these rankings in the weeks to come.

2. R.A. Dickey, New York Mets

Last week: No. 1

Did one bad start push R.A. Dickey to the No. 2 spot in our rankings? Well, kind of. Dickey pitched his worst game of the season Thursday night, allowing five runs and 11 hits over seven innings versus the Phillies. The five runs matched the second-most he's given up this year, while the 11 hits were a season-high total.

However, in his prior start, Dickey shut the Dodgers out for eight innings, allowing only three hits while striking out 10 batters. But the scoreless outing looks a bit less impressive considering it came during a span when the Dodgers were shut out in five of six games.

Dickey leads the NL with 123 strikeouts. His 0.93 WHIP is also tops among NL pitchers. His 2.40 ERA ranks third in the league, as does his opponents batting average of .203. He is one-third of an inning from leading the league lead in that category. And no one has more wins than Dickey's 12.

If I was told to fill out a midseason NL Cy Young Award ballot, Dickey would be my pick. He was the NL's best pitcher during the first half of the season, edging out Matt Cain.

Since we're doing this on a week-to-week basis, however, I think Dickey has to get knocked down a spot after pitching poorly in two of his past three starts. One other pitcher has been better in his most recent appearances.

Dickey could very well be back on top by this time next week.

1. Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds

Last week: No. 4

As said in the previous slide, one pitcher has been better than R.A. Dickey during his past few starts. Johnny Cueto has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five of his last seven appearances.

It could be pointed out that Cueto's past three starts came against the Dodgers, Giants and Twins, three of the lower-scoring teams in the major leagues. But he also held the Mets and Indians in check, and those two clubs are among the most productive in baseball. Cueto is just pitching well against all competition.

Cueto's 2.35 ERA ranks second in the league. His strikeout total, WHIP and opponents batting average aren't as impressive compared to his fellow NL pitchers. Cueto has allowed 105 hits, one of the NL's highest totals.

However, he's pitching to contact, trying to keep the ball on the ground. Giving up fly balls in Great American Ball Park is a dangerous way to live. But Cueto has found a way to succeed, keeping runs off the board while working in one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the majors.

According to Baseball-Reference, Cueto and Dickey are the best pitchers in the NL based on wins above replacement. Dickey has a slight edge over Cueto in WAR, 3.7 to 3.6.

Is Cueto the best pitcher in the NL? I don't truly believe he is, though Reds fans will surely disagree. Maybe I have to listen to myself and accept that Cueto has to pitch differently than his peers and it's working for him. That's something I'll enjoy analyzing and discussing during the second half of the season.

As of this week, however, Cueto is pitching better than anyone else in the league, and that's why he's No. 1 in these rankings.

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