NL Rookie of the Year Rankings: Kirk Nieuwenhuis Takes a Steep Drop

As the baseball season moves into July, we might be seeing some rookies hit a wall after three months of major league competition.

Of the five players listed in our rankings for the National League Rookie of the Year award, only one had a standout week. Another contender who was making a big push up the list suffered a setback with his worst game of the season. Will that affect his place in the rankings, or might he still move up with his fellow competitors struggling?

Someone who hasn't played enough to warrant consideration, yet is doing so well that he will likely be on this list toward the end of the season, is Atlanta Braves shortstop Andrelton Simmons. Simmons has played in 27 games thus far and has been a major factor with his bat and glove. The more he plays, the more he impresses. 

For now, however, we'll keep our focus on the rookies who have been in the big leagues for the majority of the season. Here are this week's five leading contenders for the NL Rookie of the Year award.

5. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, New York Mets

Last week: No. 2.

Those of you who have followed these rankings each week (which is very much appreciated) know that I've thought highly of the Mets' rookie outfielder. He's been in the lineup all season long for manager Terry Collins, batting at the top of the order and playing all three outfield positions.

Have I given him too much credit simply for staying in the lineup? Possibly. But if Collins thought he was integral enough to keep playing, I felt that should be taken into consideration.

With players such as Andres Torres and Jason Bay returning from injury, Collins has had opportunities to put Nieuwenhuis on the bench or even send him back to the minors. But he just kept hitting.

That is, until recently. In four games since last week's rankings, Nieuwenhuis batted 2-for-12 (.167) with five strikeouts. That follows up a week in which he hit 1-for-11 (.091) with seven strikeouts. You can see the pattern here. 

Nieuwenhuis' slash average has dropped to .275/.335/.414. His .749 OPS ranks him 24th among NL outfielders. He's also batting only .182/.286/.236 against lefties, which means Collins hasn't been playing him when the Mets faced a left-handed starting pitcher. That's affected his playing time in recent weeks.

If this slide continues, Nieuwenhuis likely won't be in the top five next week. That's a surprising drop for someone who looked like a favorite for NL Rookie of the Year honors for most of the season.

4. Wilin Rosario, Colorado Rockies

Last week: No. 4.

Which National League rookie had a great week? This guy.

In his past five games, Wilin Rosario batted 6-for-20 (.300) with three home runs and four RBI. He homered in three straight games, doing his best Carlos Gonzalez impersonation. 

As the Denver Post's Troy Renck points out, Rosario has hit safely in 11 of his past 13 games. And with 14 home runs already, he's on pace to break Todd Helton's team rookie record of 25 homers. That home run total leads all major league rookies, and his 36 RBI are one below the lead. 

We mention this each week, but Rosario still has to get better with blocking pitches. His 10 passed balls lead big league catchers, though he didn't allow any over the past week. However, Rosario did allow five wild pitches, pushing his season total up to 24, the fourth-highest in the majors. He obviously still has some improvement to make. 

3. Zack Cozart, Cincinnati Reds

Last week: No. 4.

Zack Cozart had a very scary moment Monday night against the Los Angeles Dodgers when a pitch from Chad Billingsley hit him in the head. After the fastball caromed off Cozart's helmet, he fell to the ground holding his head.

Watch the video here.

Fortunately, reports said that Cozart was fine after the game. According to MLB.com's Mark Sheldon, Cozart was diagnosed with a mild concussion after going through the required battery of tests.

Doctors cleared him to play, so he won't have to go on the seven-day disabled list for concussions. But he might end up sitting out a game or two, just in case. Hopefully, Cozart doesn't suffer any lingering effects from the concussion.

Before getting beaned, Cozart was 2-for-2 in Monday's game. That pushed his slash average up to .250/.296/.405 and his OPS back over .700.

Those offensive numbers might not look terribly impressive lined up with his fellow rookies, but Cozart also deserves recognition for his defense. Fangraphs has him rated as the sixth-best defensive shortstop in the NL based on Ultimate Zone Rating.

That's a bit of a slide since last week, when he was ranked third, but Andrelton Simmons' continued stellar play with the Braves has something to do with that. (He's going to be on this list soon enough.)

2. Wade Miley, Arizona Diamondbacks

Last week: No. 3.

Wade Miley certainly has many fans out there. I heard from a bunch of them last week in comments, emails and tweets after ranking him third behind Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Bryce Harper. Several of you believe strongly—very strongly—that he should be the front-runner for NL Rookie of the Year.

Following four consecutive starts in which he allowed only one run, Miley certainly looked like a top contender—especially as the players above him in our rankings struggled through bad weeks.

However, where should Miley stand after his latest start? On Saturday, he was pounded by the Brewers for eight runs and eight hits over 3.2 innings. And after putting up some impressive strikeout numbers in those previous four starts, Miley notched only two against Milwaukee.

It was easily his worst start of the season. But that happens to even the best of pitchers. 

So, as strange as it may seem to move Miley up after a bad game, that's what we're doing. Despite his rough performance, he deserves to have moved ahead of Nieuwenhuis, in addition to the other three contenders in our rankings. 

Ultimately, it just didn't seem right to put him on top after throwing the worst of his 16 starts. With another impressive performance, the argument certainly could have been made to put him in the No. 1 spot. And judging from last week's feedback, many of you would have made that argument. 

Miley will certainly get plenty of opportunities to show he's the top rookie in the NL now that Daniel Hudson needs Tommy John surgery and will miss the rest of the season. More importantly, the D-Backs are in the NL West race again and will need Miley to keep pitching like an ace. 

1. Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals

Last week: No. 1.

Despite the uproar for Wade Miley, Bryce Harper still maintains the top spot in our NL Rookie of the Year rankings.

If not for Miley pitching a bad game, perhaps he would have leapfrogged Harper for front-runner status among our list of contenders. But he did. And Harper had a respectable week on top of that. 

In his past six games, Harper batted 7-for-30 (.233) with a double, home run and two RBI. Those aren't eye-popping numbers, but the performance was an improvement over last week. 

So, is Harper hitting the proverbial rookie wall? According to the Washington Post's Adam Kilgore, it's more that opposing pitchers aren't giving him anything to hit. More specifically, those pitchers aren't throwing Harper many fastballs. And Harper is playing right into their hands by chasing that off-speed stuff out of the strike zone. 

Obviously, Harper needs to improve his plate discipline. But as Kilgore also notes, it's a bit curious that Harper isn't getting more to hit now with Ryan Zimmerman putting up big numbers behind him in the Nationals' batting order. But if Zimmerman continues his surge, perhaps Harper will see better pitches in the weeks to come. 

Harper's front-runner status certainly isn't as assured as it once seemed. His numbers don't stand out nearly as much as before. Other rookies have more home runs and RBI with higher batting averages. Harper's .819 OPS is now fourth among NL rookies.

(Technically, he's fifth. But Anthony Rizzo has only 23 at-bats, so it really doesn't seem fair to rank him on top.) 

Many feel that Harper is the product of hype. And if he wins the NL All-Star Final Vote, that perception won't change. But Harper's fellow NL rookies are gaining on him. He needs to stand out again with his play on the field, not his popularity among fans and media. 

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