Fantasy Baseball 2012: Top 15 Waiver-Wire Pickups for July 2-8

The following slideshow touts the top 15 waiver-wire pickups right now, recognizing the best free agents from the majority of 12-team roto leagues.

For the most part, this list rewards players who have already fostered productive starts to the 2012 season.

Savvy readers will notice the rankings are different from last week's offering. These changes can be attributed to the waiver-wire graduations of Dillon Gee, Daniel Nava, J.D. Martinez, Quintin Berry and Brandon Belt. They were forgotten (or largely ignored) on draft day, but are now contributing pieces with their current teams.

That's how it should be with this countdown: Here today, gone tomorrow.

Enjoy the show!

15: (RP) Greg Holland, Kansas City Royals

Now that Trevor Bauer's heralded MLB debut—replete with an absurd game-day throwing regimen—has come and gone, we'll need another right-handed flamethrower with an unusually high K/9 ratio to occupy the No. 15 slot.

Enter Greg Holland, a setup reliever who could become the Royals' closer in the coming weeks—hopefully sooner than later.

That isn't to say Holland (2.03 ERA, 21/8 K-BB ratio since June 1) will provide more than two saves for all of July. But I love his chances of anchoring the back end of the bullpen for late August and September—regardless if Kansas City contends for the American League Central title or even a .500 record by season's end.

The day will come when the Royals roll the dice on a young veteran with an aggregate K/9 north of 11.0 since 2010.

14: (RP) Brayan Villarreal, Detroit Tigers

Similar to Greg Holland, fantasy owners don't necessarily need to rush out and acquire Brayan Villarreal (3-1, 1.38 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 39/10 K-BB ratio) in 12-team leagues—even if he's a no-risk, foolproof and potentially dynamic asset on the pitching side.

Just be ready to strike before others learn of the gold rush.

As Detroit's No. 2 setup reliever (or No. 3 when Phil Coke is in manager Jim Leyland's good graces), the 25-year-old is a long shot to become the club's new closer, should Jose Valverde (two saves last week) fall victim to serious injury or significant statistical decline (some might argue that's already happening).

But after Justin Verlander, Villarreal has been arguably the Tigers' second-best pitcher all season, boasting a K/9 clip of 14.1 and holding opposing hitters to a microscopic .145 batting average.

At some point, this level of dominance will pay off.

13: (SS) Andrelton Simmons, Atlanta Braves

From a seven-, 15- and 30-day perspective, Andrelton Simmons holds at least a .333 batting average.

So, why can't he stick on the majority of rosters in 12-team leagues?

The kid has only played in 26 games this season, and yet Simmons ranks 18th among MLB shortstops in homers (three).

At his position, Simmons also has the largest OPS (.886), with his closest competitor (Cleveland's Asdrubal Cabrera) needing more than one two-homer day to grab the lead.

Despite this, Simmons can be had on waivers for the price of a timely click of your computer mouse.

Look, I'm not going to spew sunshine about Simmons' limitless power at this stage in his career—not with that slender build, not with nine career homers, not with only 1,000 professional at-bats.

But he does have a track record for getting on base (.352 OBP in the minors), and fantasy owners should respect all the positives that come with good batting acumen and above-average speed.

Especially with leagues that have a mandatory 2B/SS slot.

12: (SP) Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros

Say what you want about Dallas Keuchel (1-0, 1.35 ERA, 1.15 WHIP), but the man has been a rock of consistency in his first three MLB starts.

This time last week, I encouraged waiver-wire miners to exercise patience before grabbing Keuchel (career 3.85 ERA in the minors) as a means of finding out whether his one-run effort against the Rangers (June 17) was a fluke.

Well, two starts later, Keuchel is now 3-for-3 in surrendering just one run per start. Unfortunately, he's also 3-for-3 in racking up four or fewer strikeouts. Adding to the mystery, he has nine total walks in the three outings.

The verdict: It's hard to spin many negatives from three one-run efforts over 20 innings. So, why not extend one more three-start audition to Keuchel, hoping that he'll flourish as a low-risk No. 6 starter?

Perhaps that confidence will help Keuchel adopt the tendencies of another Houston southpaw, Wandy Rodriguez.

11: (C) Wilin Rosario, Colorado Rockies

Wilin Rosario's seasonal batting average (.246) may be an eyesore, but it's easily obscured by his 13 homers (second among Rockies hitters) and 53 professional dingers since 2010.

Here's something else to consider: Since June 18, Rosario is batting .302 with four homers, including three multiple-hit games.

In 12-team leagues, most fantasy owners are fiercely loyal to their one and only catcher on the roster. But for fantasy GMs with itchy-finger syndrome, Rosario represents a stellar short-term play, especially in the power department.

After all, if he should notch 20 to 25 homers as a 23-year-old rookie, would it really matter how he fared in the other categories?

10: (1B) Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs

Applaud the Cubs for promoting Anthony Rizzo during a Triple-A campaign that included 23 homers and a .342 batting average.

While you're at it, praise them for helping Bryan LaHair make the National League All-Star team, despite a demotion, er, move to the outfield (to accommodate Rizzo's ascension) and a deflating 30-day batting average of .219.

After all, the 22-year-old Rizzo played 49 MLB games with the Padres last year—possibly exhausting his "rookie" status—and the last-place Cubs currently rank 13th in homers, 15th in runs and 15th in RBI, among National League teams.

Kudos aside, Rizzo remains a work in progress at the plate, so much that fantasy owners shouldn't rush to pluck him off waivers, at the expense of dropping first base-eligible assets like Jordan Pacheco, Chris Davis, Lucas Duda, Brandon Belt or Carlos Santana.

But he's certainly worth a long look for the fantasy owner who has zero depth at corner infield.

9: (SP) Tommy Milone, Oakland A's

Tommy Milone (8-6, 3.73 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) has posted solid numbers throughout his inaugural season with the A's (excluding the Coors Field-induced clunker from June 13). But that's not why he has a cushy spot in this countdown.

In his last three starts (spanning 21 innings), Milone has allowed just two runs (0.86 ERA), while collecting two wins and 13 strikeouts. And of his last 10 outings, he has yielded two or fewer walks nine times.

Put it all together, and Milone has done a good job breaking that early-season stereotype of being a low-run, but low-strikeout pitcher. Half of his last 10 outings have produced five or more strikeouts—numbers befitting of a plug-and-play No. 6 starter in 12-team leagues.

Bottom line: I don't expect Milone to be a waiver-wire regular after today's listing.

8: (SP) Jon Niese, New York Mets

There's no reasonable excuse for Jonathon Niese being a free agent in roughly 60 percent of 12-team leagues.

What's not to love about a pitcher with a 1.89 ERA since June 2? Or the 34/5 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 30 days? Or his 4-1 record since May 23?

When gauging the long-term viability of young pitchers, it's always good to monitor their stats after an isolated implosion. Since Niese's eight-run debacle against Toronto (May 18), he has allowed just 14 runs in his last seven starts (spanning 47 innings) for a stealth ERA of 2.68.

And that doesn't even cover the southpaw's 46 strikeouts in that span.

Verdict: Niese is a terrific No. 5 pitcher in any scoring format. He may even play a prominent role in your club's resurgent drive for a fantasy pennant.

7: (SP) Clayton Richard, San Diego Padres

Was it just eight weeks ago that Clayton Richard (5-8, 3.77 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 63/27 K-BB ratio) was considered a flight risk when pitching away from the spacious confines of San Diego's Petco Park?

In his last nine starts (spanning 61 innings), Richard has a 2.66 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and four victories. Within that timeline, the Padres southpaw has a 38/11 K-BB ratio.

One could make the argument that Richard is the Padres' most effective starting pitcher, ahead of All-Star reliever Huston Street. That said, I might clamor more for the upside of the No. 2-ranked asset in our countdown.

Regarding Richard, though, he's an ideal No. 5 starter for clubs that value strikeouts, wins and ERA.

6: (OF) Norichika Aoki, Milwaukee Brewers

Let's keep this one short and sweet.

Of the limited batting average/speed options in free agency—from Andres Torres and Gregor Blanco to Eric Young, Jr. and Jordan Schafer—Norichika Aoki has the best combo of modest power, reliable hitting prowess and captivating speed.

As a result, fantasy owners would be crazy to ignore a versatile outfielder who can carry teams to a weekly steals title. And this conclusion was hatched long before Aoki swiped four bags against the White Sox on June 23.

In the Japanese League, Aoki was one of his country's greatest 20/20 threats (especially from 2007-11). With the Brewers (10 steals, .291 batting, .357 OBP), Aoki is likely Ryan Braun's No. 1 threat to be Milwaukee's steals champ by season's end.

5: (SP/RP) Michael Fiers, Milwaukee Brewers

On June 24, just hours before the fifth MLB start of his career, I played a birthday hunch that Michael Fiers (3-2, 2.29 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) would have a stellar outing against the free-swinging White Sox.

My instincts were spot-on: Against Chicago, Fiers tallied seven strikeouts and allowed zero runs over 7.1 innings.

Six days later, I doubled down on the 27-year-old Fiers, figuring he would feel no extra pressure to carry a Brewers rotation that's starving for a productive No. 5 starter. And once again, the gamble paid off, with Fiers racking up 10 strikeouts and allowing zero runs against the Diamondbacks.

Fiers's minor league track record (2.80 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 370/91 K-BB ratio) indicates a prominent role in the majors—but as a starter or reliever? At this point, that's a tough call.

As waiver-wire moves go, fantasy owners must simply hope that Fiers never gives the Brewers the option of sending him back to the bullpen.

4: (1B) Ike Davis, New York Mets

Since June 2, Ike Davis has cracked six homers and 24 RBI—both top-10 marks among MLB first basemen.

In that span, Davis has also provided a measure of positive fantasy production in all but three games (when logging at least three at-bats). For a regular starter like Davis, that's quite profound.

Of equal importance, Davis boasts an excellent .367 on-base percentage and decent walk-to-strikeout ratio (13/22) in the last 30 days.

That's two sound indicators of Davis' comfort level at the plate and his understanding that he cannot erase the memory of a wretched April (.185 batting, two homers) in one July afternoon.

3: (3B) Pedro Alvarez, Pittsburgh Pirates

We have justifiably debated the pros and cons of rostering Pedro Alvarez (15 HR, 44 RBI, 34 runs, .231 BA) throughout the spring.

But right now, there's no excuse for passing on a prodigious power hitter at a corner-infield spot...especially one boasting seven homers, 20 RBI, 16 runs and an impressive OBP (.389) since June 2.

What's the reasoning for Alvarez's progressive turnaround? As a regular viewer of Pirates games, a few things stand out:

1. Similar to Adam Dunn's case this season, Alvarez rarely gets fooled by multiple pitches during a single at-bat.

2. In the last 30 days, Alvarez has a respectable (for him) walk-to-strikeout ratio of 1/2, and he's on pace to draw 55 walks for the season (a career high).

3. His bat seems thicker and quicker—especially when confronted with All-Star-caliber fastballs.

2: (SP/RP) Andrew Cashner, San Diego Padres

From a seasonal-record standpoint, Andrew Cashner (3-3, 3.63 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) likely doesn't deserve a superb ranking here.

But some waiver-wire options serve as bigger lottery tickets than others, meaning that Cashner's fantasy ceiling extends beyond most pitchers in this countdown.

And that's saying a lot for a talent like Cashner (minor league numbers: 2.75 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 183/83 K-BB ratio), who only has 296 professional innings under his belt (through July 1).

Bottom line: If you're looking for a reasonably safe pitcher to claim off waivers who will bring good numbers to your rotation, happily land the likes of Tommy Milone and Jon Niese.

But if you're seeking a high-ceiling asset to perhaps morph into a No. 3 starter, Cashner's probably the one to covet.

1: (1B/OF) Tyler Moore, Washington Nationals

Tyler Moore (4 HR, 12 RBI, 10 runs, .333 BA) may not be a household name in real-world and fantasy circles, but that could change very soon.

Not only is Moore the Nationals' sixth-best power hitter for the season (in just 26 games), he's also had back-to-back minor league campaigns of 31 homers (2010-11). For good measure, he had nine homers and a .310 batting average during his brief stay with Triple-A Syracuse this season.

It also helps that Moore has a good chance of sticking in the Washington lineup. Rick Ankiel, for all his many talents from deep center field, might not have the power game to match Moore.

And that's a conservative assumption, given Moore's four homers and .415 batting average since June 2. The 25-year-old slugger is an intriguing flier pick and outside candidate for midseason pickup of the year.