Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal on the Legendary Road to Dubai

You don’t have to be a soothsayer to sense that Rafael Nadal’s 2009 house is in order and in ascension.  The Gemini contender plays like twins, often needing both yin and yang to pull some of the matches this week in Rotterdam out of the jaws of defeat.

It is like the gods have insulated Nadal staving off the day when he finally tumbles off the top perch.  This does not appear likely soon.  Yesterday Nadal propelled Jo-Wilfried Tsonga out of the ABM AMRO Tennis Tournament in Rotterdam in three nervous sets, 6-4, 6-7, 6-4. 

Tsonga entered the tournament having just conquered all competition in Johannesburg the previous week.

Indeed, all of Nadal’s encounters have gone the distance—three separate three-set contests in three days.  Yet, all the while you watch him, you suspect he will prevail.  If you feel that way, then it is conceivable that the competition does as well.

In the meantime, Andy Murray headed toward the semifinals where he stood toe to toe with Croat Mario Ancic.  Until this match, Ancic had been playing brilliant tennis.  Murray smothered him in little over an hour, 6-1, 6-2. 

Nadal will face Frenchman Gael Monfils in the other semi later today.  No doubt the gods will see Nadal through to the finals where an interesting dynamic will surely unfold—as the Twins vs. the Bull—Gemini vs. Taurus.

He who wins this contest in Rotterdam will have a real leg up on the competition as the top players, including Federer, head into Nirvana...the diamond in the crown of spectacular settings for tennis. 

Dubai is where all the chickens come home to roost—where all the marbles come out of the bag—where we spin straw into gold...could legend far behind?

If Murray pulls out a win in Rotterdam, he will reestablish his claim as a legitimate contender for the top spot in tennis.  Murray’s display against Ancic leaves little doubt as to his ability to lay waste to Nadal in the final.

If Nadal wins in Rotterdam, it will be another hole in the dike filled with cement as he works on building a potential legendary run in 2009.  

It could be like a Federer run early in his dominant phase between 2004—2007 where Roger was winning every tournament except the French Open.  During these years Federer often absconded with three of four Majors in a given calendar year. 

The hard court season in 2009 is pivotal for Nadal.  Because it is early, his suspect knees are sustaining him.  Now is the time to establish his competitive edge before the nay-sayers can blunt his ability to impact expectations.

Nadal conquering Federer in the final of the Australian Open was the magic bullet in Nadal’s carefully constructed battle plan. 

He needed Federer’s cooperation to secure the win because the mighty man certainly had the wherewith all to defeat the Spaniard, but Federer’s game and especially his serve deserted him.  Most comment that Federer’s will to win was absent without leave.

This made it possible for Nadal to bring his potent game to bear on the mighty Swiss.  It was once again Federer’s turn to feel the effects of greatness and expectation work against him.  He became the opponent powerless against the tide, feeling the inevitability of Nadal’s victory. 

This is what men at the top of their game accomplish—dominance through sheer will to win.  No one understands this dynamic more than Roger Federer.  No one is more frustrated at his inability to employ the strength of his own game more than Federer.

Once the season evolves into clay followed by grass, Nadal has a real chance to extend his advantage over the superlative Swiss.  Nadal’s supremacy on clay is the stuff of legend.  No one expects Nadal to lose on the red dirt. 

But then, no one expected Federer to lose on grass until he finally blinked.  If nothing else—there are no guarantees in tennis. 

Dubai will mean—a line in the sand with Nadal daring Federer to cross it.  For these two men at the top, the real rivalry is theirs.  While Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic scurry in the background and have legitimate claims to greatness, for Federer and Nadal—the true contest is theirs alone.

In Dubai last year Roger lost in the first round to Andy Murray while Nadal lost in the quarterfinals to Roddick—the eventual champion.  Roger has everything to gain in terms of ranking points by winning in Dubai. 

Nadal and Federer both reached the semifinals of Indian Wells in 2008.  Last year in Miami Roger lost in the quarterfinals to Andy Roddick and Nadal lost in the finals to Nikolay Davydenko.  Roger has fewer points to defend and a chance to improve his ranking.

But that is not what either of these two men, Nadal and Federer, care about.  Nadal wishes to maintain his number one ranking just as Federer did during his four-year reign.  It will add to Nadal’s resume as the years advance. 

Winning, continuing to win is important for Nadal for that reason.  He also keeps alive his desire to win a calendar year grand slam. 

Federer wishes to win majors.  Much of that depends on his ability to dominate opponents.  Roger has reached the final of every major since the Australian Open in 2005 except for his loss last year to Djokovic at the Australian Open during their semifinal contest.  This phenomenal run by Federer will perhaps never be equaled. 

The chink in Federer’s armor at this moment in time is his seeming inability to defeat Nadal.  It is that missing piece that stops the mighty Swiss from ascending his own Mt. Olympus and sitting triumphant at the peak of his career. 

While Dubai will not make or break Roger or Rafa in terms of winning the championship, it is another mark on the wall—as 2009 unfolds as either a legend-making year for Federer or for Nadal as he cements his hold at the top of the men’s game. 

There is not room for both to achieve legendary status nor is there space for another entrant into the pool: 2009 is already full...but not final.