Wimbledon 2012: Rafael Nadal's Unfathomable Upset

I don’t believe what I have just witnessed.

Rafael Nadal, that indomitable Spanish hurricane of a tennis player, losing in the second round of Wimbledon—the second round—to Lukas Rosol, the No. 100 player in the world, is nearly impossible to fathom.

But it happened, and now the only question remaining is whether the match qualifies as the biggest upset in the Open Era of men’s tennis.  

At the start of the Wimbledon fortnight, the smart money was on Nadal to emerge victorious from the men’s bracket. Novak Djokovic might currently hold the No. 1 ranking, but since April no one has played better tennis than Rafa.

He steamrolled through the European clay court season—notwithstanding his hiccup on the newfangled blue clay at Madrid—and played arguably his best tennis ever at this year’s French Open, mowing down a number of worthy challengers while dropping only a single set. Over this same time period, the other three members of tennis’ big four looked a bit out of sorts.

Djokovic seemed tired, as if the effort required to sustain his high level of play was finally getting to him. Roger Federer looked capable of beating everyday, run-of-the mill players, but incapable of competing at Nadal and Djokovic’s level. And Andy Murray just seemed lost, his game in a state of undefined stasis as he tried to learn some steely resolve from his new and infamous coach.

In the face of these realities, how could one not expect Nadal to once again dominate the lawns at Wimbledon and hoist the trophy for the third time?

I must admit that I’ve never taken a liking to Rafael Nadal. His on-court mannerisms—the grunting, the excessive time he takes between points on his own serve—are bothersome and self-serving. And his recent penchant for lashing out at ATP officials every time the ball doesn’t bounce his way smacks of petulance.

When juxtaposed with Federer, whose quiet, businesslike demeanor is reminiscent of past champions like Pete Sampras and Bjorn Borg, Nadal comes across as the Tasmanian Devil of professional tennis, someone who’s looking to disrupt the sport’s inherent tranquility with one insanely top-spin laden forehand at a time.

But with all that said, there’s no denying that Nadal is one of, if not the most, remarkable athlete I’ve ever witnessed in any sport. Is there another competitor who more consistently flusters his opponents through sheer will power alone?

Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic have more pure talent than Nadal, but against these two tennis machines Rafa finds a way to consistently turn inward to the well of inspiration and emerge with a kind of manic energy that takes his opponent out of the game.

Nadal makes every overused sports cliche that you’ve heard since your first day in little league—it’s all about heart, all that matters is that you play hard, if you believe it you can achieve it—seem like statements of fact. His success is predicated as much on his will to win, a will that allows him to chase down and return balls every other player on the tour would allow to fly by, and his hard-charging style of play, as it is on his occasionally devastating forehand. Nadal approaches the sport with a child-like view of competition, always trying his best on every point and believing* that he can emerge triumphant regardless of circumstance

Ever since he won the U.S. Open in 2010, I’ve thought it inevitable that Nadal would one day surpass Federer’s record of 16 major titles. He remains untouchable at the French Open and could easily win at least three more titles at Roland Garros.

He clearly has Federer’s number at grand slams—the last time Federer beat Nadal at a grand slam was in the 2007 Wimbledon finals—and doesn’t have to worry about losing to his Swiss rival at the majors. And over the past year he’s been stalking Djokovic, waiting for the Serb to downshift so that he could start collecting titles at the rate he did back in 2010.

This is what makes Nadal’s loss to Rosol so mind-boggling. He’s played at such a high level at every tournament since 2009 and never loses to no-name players. Even when he’s not on top of his game, he finds ways to will his way to victory over the course of a five-set match. The fact that he lost just as his chief rivals' vulnerabilities are becoming apparent is hard to fathom.

In the first set of his opening-round match against Thomaz Bellucci, Nadal looked a bit sluggish. But in typical Nadal fashion, he elevated his game in the tiebreak by playing harder than his opponent and won the set. From that point on, the match belonged to him.

I expected something similar to happen against Rosol. As well as the young Czech was playing, I always expected Nadal to find a way to come through at the critical moments and send the challenger packing.

Give Rosol credit: He took Nadal’s best, and cheapest, shots and didn’t blink. Delaying the fifth set to close the Centre Court roof helped Rosol by breaking Nadal’s momentum, but lesser players would have emerged from the locker room with butterflies in their stomach.

Rosol simply stepped onto the court and continued to hit the living you-know-what out of the ball, striking it so cleanly that Nadal simply could not compete.

This loss, while clearly an aberration, will not be forgotten in the near future. What’s so remarkable about the current crop of top players in the world isn’t just that they win a lot of majors, but that they never lose early in big tournaments.

Federer, Djokovic and Nadal have displayed an unprecedented type of consistency in big matches. And if you had polled the general public about which of those players would be the first to go down early in a big tournament, I imagine Nadal would not have received the most votes.

That’s what makes his loss so incredible and more than a little bit unbelievable.

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*The most frustrating thing about watching Federer play Nadal at majors is that at some point in every match it becomes apparent that Federer doesn’t believe he is going to win. His eyes glaze over, his concentration falters and he starts smacking errant forehands into the stands. It’s as if he knows that as great as he is, he just doesn’t have the energy to take three sets off the always energetic Nadal.