Chad Ford 2012 Mock Draft: Blind Spots in ESPN Guru's Latest Projections
ESPN Insider Chad Ford has released his "Mock Draft, Version 10.0" and will be updating it right up until the draft.
As usual, Ford is almost entirely on-point—almost.
His top-six picks are hard to argue with: Anthony Davis, Thomas Robinson, Bradley Beal, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Andre Drummond and Damian Lillard.
There's a good chance trades impact what happens with this top-tier of selections, but all things being equal, Ford is probably right.
After that, his scenario has a few cracks.
Pick No. 7: Golden State Warriors–Dion Waiters (SG, Syracuse)
Ford confesses to being at a loss when it comes to the Warriors' thinking, suggesting there's some disagreement among Golden State's decision-makers:
"Still not sure which way this goes, folks. Jerry West is a big fan of Dion Waiters. Owner Joe Lacob isn't sure if they can pass on the size and potential of Andre Drummond, if he doesn't go at No. 5. GM Bob Meyers thinks Harrison Barnes would be a steal here.
"
Meyers would be correct. If Barnes is still on the board—and he would be if Ford is correct about the first six selections—Golden State would be crazy not to take him.
For one thing, where does Waiters fit in on a team with Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson already in the backcourt?
Sure, perhaps Thompson would move to the three, but he is by all accounts a better fit on the perimeter. He doesn't have the solid frame you'd like to see guarding forwards.
Barnes, meanwhile, is one of the more NBA-ready options in the draft. He'd be a perfect fit for a club knocking on the postseason's door.
If Golden State doesn't trade this pick first, you have to give the edge to Barnes.
Ford has Barnes going eighth to the Toronto Raptors. If he's off the board, expect Toronto to take Jeremy Lamb or Dion Waiters instead.
Waiters is a bit too much like DeMar DeRozan—a slasher without especially good shooting ability. That may make Jeremy Lamb or even Austin Rivers the more likely options.
Pick No. 10: New Orleans Hornets–Austin Rivers (SG, Duke)
You don't take a guy like Rivers on the off chance he can learn how to play the point. If Portland winds up taking Drummond instead of Lillard, the Hornets could get their hands on a point guard.
Otherwise, it makes a lot more sense for this team to go after a forward to replace Trevor Ariza or another big man to offset the loss of Emeka Okafor—along with the potential loss of free agent Chris Kaman.
After all, Jarrett Jack played well last season, so the backcourt isn't an area of immediate need for this club.
Yes, Rivers would make for a solid sixth man, but New Orleans could just as easily sign Lou Williams to do the job.
We know New Orleans worked out a number of big men including Meyers Leonard, John Henson and Tyler Zeller.
They also took a look at Kentucky forward Terrence Jones. Leonard and Zeller would be a slight reach here, and Henson would be too redundant with Anthony Davis.
Unless New Orleans trades down in the draft and settles for one of those centers, Jones may be the best fit. The Hornets could use a small forward right away, and it wouldn't hurt to pair up a couple of Kentucky guys to build around.
Pick No. 13: Phoenix Suns–Jeremy Lamb (SG, UConn)
As Ford himself notes, "[The Suns] didn't think he'd be available here and he gives them length and shooting."
And, that's precisely the problem with this pick—the Suns are almost certainly right that Lamb won't still be around. The most likely scenario is that he goes to Toronto (instead of Dion Waiters), but it would be crazy for Portland and Houston to pass him up with the 11th and 12th picks, respectively.
Portland is on the brink of losing Jamal Crawford, leaving only Wesley Matthews to man the shooting guard position. Lamb's game actually shares some resemblance to Crawford's, so he'd be more than just a replacement for his roster spot.
Houston, meanwhile, has been including shooting guard Kevin Martin in trade offers, so Lamb could fill an important need for the Rockets as well—if the club hasn't already dealt this pick, of course.
Ford has Portland taking Tyler Zeller and Houston taking Meyers Leonard. Sure, both teams need centers, but it doesn't make much sense to pass up potentially elite talent in order to take guys like Zeller and Leonard.
Pick No. 14: Milwaukee Bucks–Terrence Ross (SG, Washington)
Milwaukee's acquisition of Samuel Dalembert is hardly a reason they'll pass up adding another big man. The guy hasn't played over 30 minutes a game since 2007-08. At best, he'd give a rookie center a little bit more time to get his feet wet.
Chances are the Bucks wind of taking either Tyler Zeller or Meyers Leonard, the guys Ford has going at the 11 and 12 spots.
As good as Terrence Ross is, it doesn't make much sense for Milwaukee to take him unless they think he can play at small forward in the NBA. Otherwise, he'd be crowded out by Monta Ellis at the 2.
Ross could easily slip ahead of guys like Dion Waiters and Austin Rivers, or he could fall to the team that needs him most: the Philadelphia 76ers at number 15. Philly desperately needs a starting shooting guard to pair with Jrue Holiday, and Ross would be a steal.
