2012 NBA Draft Picks: 4 Risky Players Worth Gambling on

When the NBA draft begins tonight, the dice will start to roll as teams begin to gamble on the players that they select. Teams will look at risk and reward, specifically just how far they are willing to tread into that area of risk to find a potentially huge reward.

There are always gambles in the NBA draft, and the first round will produce more busts than players who will emerge as legitimate NBA players. NBA teams must find a player who can be productive for them now, but more importantly down the road.

Very few college players are perfect prospects; almost none are completely ready for the NBA. Most of the players that will be drafted will have some case being made against them. Either on the court or off, teams will be weighing whether a player is worth the cost of drafting them.

Some players are worth the risk, as their upside is significantly higher than others. As in every other sport, an NBA team can find many ways to talk itself into drafting a player with a lot of upside.

John Henson

John Henson is a very good basketball player, but he is incredibly skinny.  There are questions as to whether his body can hold up against the bigger bodies of the NBA. Considering that Henson plays a low post game, the questions are legitimate.

Henson is considered a great help-side defender, and this will help him navigate through the bigger bodies. He is very athletic, and he is a dominant shot-blocker who can score a little too. Henson will be called on to help defend and rebound the ball well.

At 6’10” and 216 pounds, Henson looks like a fishing pole. If he wants to match up with how highly he will be drafted, he will need to add some bulk to his frame. Henson won’t last in the NBA at 216 pounds as he will simply get pushed all over the place.

If he can add the weight that he needs, he will be in great shape. As a shot-blocker, rebounder and a help defender, Henson has all the tools to help an NBA defense take the next step.

Perry Jones III

Perry Jones III is a dynamic basketball player with great size and athleticism. He has the ability to dominate for small stretches, but he can disappear as well. Jones III is going to need a coach that can motivate him as he looks to have issues with effort.

When he isn’t feeling it, he needs to still find a way to impact the game. He has not done this in college, and there are concerns over his ability to give a maximum effort, especially when things are not going great on the offensive end of the floor.

At 6’11” and 235 pounds, Jones III can shoot, dribble, pass, play down low and rebound the ball. His mix of physical tools is enough to make teams drool, but he needs to find a way to be more consistent. With a little more consistency, Jones III represents great value in the 2012 NBA draft.

According to Chad Ford of ESPN.com, reports are surfacing that Jones III has a medical red-flag for a knee issue, an issue that will most certainly cause him to fall a little in the draft. There are no issues with the ligaments in his knee. His meniscus is what is in question. This is not a big medical concern.

If Jones III can prove to a team that his effort is not a concern, he will be a great value where he gets drafted as he was once considered a lottery pick. He is a gamble that teams must take at some point in the middle of Round 1 because of how high his ceiling could be.

Jared Sullinger

Jared Sullinger was a great college basketball player for the Ohio State Buckeyes. He is not a player that is going to test out of the gym, but he is certainly a player that can play the game. At 6’9” and 268 pounds, Sullinger is a bit of a “tweener," but he is a two-time All-American.

Sullinger is going to represent value for whatever team that drafts him. He is not going to get drafted very early in the 2012 NBA draft, but he is one of the players with a higher floor than most in the draft. In an era when drafting any player is a gamble, knowing that you are getting something is valuable.

Chad Ford of ESPN.com reports that Sullinger has been issued a medical red-flag by NBA team doctors because of a back concern. The Sullinger camp has explained that the back issue is caused by tight hamstrings and quads. The back injury is certainly something that every NBA team considering Sullinger is checking out.

He is the kind of player that is going to show up at training camp, and really surprise because of how well he plays. Sullinger was dominant at times in college. He is a good passer, a solid rebounder, and a player that can handle himself on the basketball court.

If Sullinger can show teams that he is healthy, and the back is not a long-term issue, he should be in great shape to get drafted in the middle of Round 1. Conventional thinking is that Sullinger will slip to a team later in Round 1 where he becomes a great value.  

Fab Melo

Fab Melo is going to be a center in the NBA. He has just turned 22 years old, and at 7’ 0” and 255 pounds he has the ability to grow into his frame. Melo has great potential for a big man as he projects to be a defensive stopper down the road, but he is not going to help any team on the offensive side of the floor anytime soon.

The risk with Melo comes from his conditioning as he really needs to work on staying in shape. There are some concerns about character as Melo he was involved in a domestic violence incident and was suspended for the 2012 NCAA tournament for being academically ineligible.

Melo has the ability to be as physically imposing as any center in the NBA. With his size, and his 7’3” wingspan, he has the opportunity to be a defensive force. There is not much offense coming from Melo at this time, and his draft stock is all about defense.

Realistically, Melo will never be an offensive option, but his ability to be a lock-down defender in the low-post makes him a very valuable player. Melo is being projected to be drafted late in Round 1 of the 2012 NBA draft. Even if Melo never provides much offense, he is a great value pick because of where he should be drafted.

Finding a future NBA center at this point in the draft represents great value for the team that drafts him. Melo has to continue to progress as a defender, and he needs to work on finding something that will help on the offensive side of the floor.