MLB Trade Rumors: 8 Deals That Should Happen but Won't

Joel Reuter@JoelReuterBRFeatured ColumnistJune 26, 2012

MLB Trade Rumors: 8 Deals That Should Happen but Won't

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    The MLB trade deadline is a little over a month away, and although the trade market is taking shape with each passing day, the rumor mill has been relatively slow as far as where some of the top names could potentially land.

    A number of contending teams have clear-cut needs moving forward if they hope to make a serious postseason push, and while some players appear to be perfect fits, it isn't always in the cards.

    So here is a look at eight deals that should happen for the sake of both sides that would be involved, but won't happen for one reason or another.

Rays Acquire J.P. Arencibia from Blue Jays

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    Why It Makes Sense

    The Rays rank as one of the best teams in all of baseball, despite an offense with numerous holes and the absence of Evan Longoria for nearly two months.

    Chief among those holes is at catcher, where Jose Molina (.195 BA) and Chris Gimenez (.191 BA) make up the lightest hitting tandem in all of baseball. 

    Arencibia strikes out a ton, but he calls a good game behind the plate and has plus power. He hit 23 home runs with 78 RBI as a rookie last season and has nine home runs and 33 RBI so far this season.

    He could be considered expendable as top catching prospect Travis d'Arnaud (.331 BA, 16 HR, 52 RBI) has dominated Triple-A pitching and doesn't have much more to gain from the minors.

    Meanwhile, the Rays have an abundance of young pitching talent they could use to acquire Arencibia, and the Blue Jays have been hit hard by the injury bug in their rotation this season.

    Why It Won't Happen

    Despite the presence of d'Arnaud, the Blue Jays have yet to show any interest in trading Arencibia at this point and may not moving forward, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.

    Their need for pitching could change things, but as of now this deal looks as though it is one that makes sense on paper but won't come to fruition.

Mets Acquire Brett Myers from Astros

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    Why It Makes Sense

    The Mets have performed well above expectations this season, as they currently sit at 39-35, tied with the Braves for second in the NL East.

    Pitching has been one of their greatest strengths, but Frank Francisco (18-of-21 in save opportunities with a 4.97 ERA) has struggled at times in the closer's role and recently hit the DL with a strained oblique.

    Bobby Parnell will step into the closer's role for the time being, but if the Mets remain in the thick of things as the deadline approaches, they could look to bolster their bullpen.

    The Astros will be looking to deal Myers (16-of-17 in save opportunities with a 3.70 ERA) one way or another, as he is set to hit free agency at season's end (provided his $10 million option doesn't vest) and he is one of the team's few remaining veteran trade pieces.

    Why It Won't Happen

    While Francisco has struggled at times this season, the Mets will think twice before taking on the financial commitment that comes along with trading for Myers.

    His option vests if he finishes 45 games on the season, and he is currently at 24, so that seems like a real possibility.

    Adding him to the back end of their bullpen could be what the Mets need to make a playoff push this season, but in the end I don't think they'll be willing to make the commitment that comes along with it.

Dodgers Acquire Chase Headley from Padres

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    Why It Makes Sense

    Despite a rough week last week, the Dodgers still have the best record in the National League at 43-30 entering play on Monday.

    They'll benefit from the returns of Matt Kemp and Mark Ellis on offense, but they still have a glaring hole at third base that will be filled by some combination of Elian Herrera, Jerry Hairston, Jr. and Juan Uribe if no deal is made.

    Not only do the Dodgers not have a true third baseman this season, but there is no heir apparent on the horizon either. The 28-year-old Headly is not eligible to hit free agency until 2015, so he could solve the problem now and moving forward.

    On the other side of things, Headley represents perhaps the Padres' most valuable trade chip, and moving him could be another step in the rebuilding process.

    Why It Won't Happen

    According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, the Padres have indicated that they are willing to listen to offers for Headley, but that it will take "a lot" to acquire him.

    If the Padres do decide to move Headley, they are likely to receive a better offer from someone other than the Dodgers, who are incredibly thin in the minors.

    They likely wouldn't want to give up Zach Lee or Alex Castellanos, and a package built around right-hander Allen Webster may not be enough for the Padres to bite.

Blue Jays Acquire Matt Garza from Cubs

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    Why It Makes Sense

    The AL East has been a dog fight from top to bottom this season, as the Blue Jays are currently 37-35, which puts them seven games out of first place in last place.

    The team entered the week with three of their starting pitchers (Brandon Morrow, Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchinson) on the disabled list, and a fourth could join them soon as Henderson Alvarez left Monday's game with a sore elbow, per Dayn Perry of CBS Sports.

    The Cubs will undoubtedly be as aggressive of sellers as anyone in the league. Though it will take a significant package to acquire Garza, he'll certainly be made available at the right price, and the Blue Jays have a deep farm system to work with.

    Why It Won't Happen

    As CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reported on Twitter, the Blue Jays will likely have to contend with division rivals New York and Boston for Garza's services, and while they have a deep farm system, they lack the marquee prospect that the other two teams could offer up.

    It remains to be seen if the Cubs will even make Garza available at a price that someone will be willing to bite on, but if he is, the Blue Jays seem like underdogs to acquire his services.

Pirates Acquire Carlos Quentin from Padres

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    Why It Makes Sense

    The Pirates remain just just two games out of first place in the NL Central, despite the fact that they are hitting just .231 as a team and have only one player hitting over .260.

    Granted, that one player is Andrew McCutchen, who is having an MVP-caliber season with a .339 batting average, 13 home runs and 46 RBI line. But the team will need someone else to step up alongside him if they hope to remain in contention.

    Their corner outfielders in particular are struggling, and Quentin would mark a significant upgrade over both Alex Presley (.231 BA) and Jose Tabata (.226 BA).

    The Padres could still look to re-sign Quentin (.324 BA, 6 HR, 13 RBI), but the fact that he'll likely be the most sought-after bat on the market will mean a bigger haul than normal if they move him.

    Why It Won't Happen

    As stated above, Quentin will be the biggest bat on the market, and while the Pirates were active last season in acquiring Derek Lee and Ryan Ludwick, trading for Quentin would be a different story.

    The team is slowly building something solid for the future, and they will have to decide if they are willing to deal what it takes to improve their offense and make a run at the NL Central title. My best guess is no and that they'll instead go after someone like Jeff Francoeur, but he won't make the same kind of impact.

Orioles Acquire Wandy Rodriguez from Astros

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    Why It Makes Sense

    The Orioles have been the surprise team of 2012, but their starting pitching is unimpressive at best beyond the duo of Jason Hammel and Wei-Yin Chen at the top.

    Brian Matusz (5-8. 5.00 ERA), Jake Arrieta (3-9, 5.55 ERA) and Tommy Hunter (3-4, 5.70 ERA) have made for a subpar back end of the rotation, and if the Orioles are to be serious contenders, they will likely need to add at least one arm to their rotation.

    In Rodriguez, the team would get a seasoned veteran who is capable of serving as the staff ace and workhorse. His 6-5 record this season doesn't tell the story, as he has a 3.29 ERA and 10 of his 15 outings have been quality starts.

    The Astros are in the midst of a rebuild, and Rodriguez is one of the last remaining veteran trade chips they hold.

    Why It Won't Happen

    The Orioles have gotten where they are by developing their minor league talent, and they won't be quick to mortgage the future for a chance to make a run this season.

    The Astros made Rodriguez available at the deadline last season, but their asking price scared any potential trade partners off.

    That combined with the fact that he is due $13 million next season and has a $13 million option with a $2.5 million buyout for 2014 makes him a significant commitment, and one I don't think the Orioles will be willing to make.

Giants Acquire Hanley Ramirez from Marlins

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    Why It Makes Sense

    It's no secret that the Giants need to upgrade the shortstop position, as they have not had a reliable everyday player at the position since Omar Vizquel left.

    Brandon Crawford (.224/.275/.311) has seen the bulk of the playing time there so far this season, and he has proven to be virtually useless offensively while committing 12 errors defensively. 

    The trade would not only mean an offensive boost for the Giants, but it would also allow Ramirez to return to his natural shortstop position, something he prefers.

    For a struggling Marlins team, dealing Ramirez for big-league-ready young players would not necessarily represent a move towards rebuilding but more a shaking up of things.

    Why It Won't Happen

    I explored the possibility of a Ramirez trade in an article last week, and the two issues I pointed to in that article certainly apply when talking a potential Ramirez-to-San Francisco deal.

    The 28-year-old is due $31.5 million combined in 2013 and 2014, making him a commitment. He's also not exactly tearing it up right now, hitting .258/.330/.444.

    Also, the Giants may not have the pieces to pull off the deal, as a their farm system is incredibly thin. They could start the package with outfield prospect Gary Brown, but it would take at least one more marquee prospect, and they simply don't have one.

Phillies Move Cole Hamels to Highest Bidder

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    Why It Makes Sense

    With so much money tied up in veterans, it won't be an easy thing to admit, but it is looking more and more like the Phillies' window has begun to close and they will need to start thinking about the franchise's next chapter.

    Hamels is still just 28, and in the final year of his current contract he is headed for a monster payday this offseason that could be somewhere in the neighborhood of the seven-year, $161 million deal C.C. Sabathia received last offseason, according to CBS Sports' Jon Heyman.

    If someone like the Cubs or Dodgers steps forward and makes him that kind of offer, his days in Philadelphia would likely be over, as it is unlikely the Phillies will shell out that much to keep him.

    Instead, they'd be wise to move him at the deadline to the highest bidder. He'd amount to little more than a rental player for whoever acquired him, so the Phillies may not be able to get as loaded a package as one would think, but still a better deal than losing him for compensatory picks.

    Something like what the Brewers sent to the Indians for Sabathia back in 2008 would be the likely haul. That was their No. 1 prospect (Matt LaPorta), a solid second prospect (Michael Brantley) and two lower-level guys.

    Why It Won't Happen

    As I said above, it won't be easy for the Phillies to accept the fact that they need to start looking to the future, and it won't take more than a few wins strung together for them to completely abandon any thoughts of selling.

    That combined with the fact that their asking price will likely be far more than teams will be willing to cough up for a rental player will result in Hamels finishing out the season in Philly.

    From there, it will come down to whether or not the Phillies are willing to pay top dollar and outbid other potential suitors on the open market.