The Chicago Cubs' Biggest Challenge In the 2009 NL Central: the Cincinnati Reds

Portions of this story were originally published on http://mymlb.mysportspen.com/cubs/

In 2008, the Chicago Cubs were looking over their shoulder the entire season at the Milwaukee Brewers and, for a few months, at the St. Louis Cardinals. As we begin 2009, the cast of characters in the National League Central has changed dramatically, with a lot of notable names from last year's Opening Day in new places.

Milwaukee figured to be nipping at the Cubs' heels for years, with a young nucleus of Ben Sheets, Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, and Ryan Braun. But with the losses of CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets, coupled with Weeks' defensive issues, the Brewers come into 2009 with a lot of questions to answer.

The Cardinals have almost every position up for grabs coming into 2009 except Troy Glaus at third and Zeus, I mean Albert Pujols, at first. Sure, they added Khalil Greene at shortstop, but he hasn't distinguished himself at the plate yet in his career.

They also have issues in their rotation, with Chris Carpenter potentially moving to the bullpen and Braden Looper gone to Milwaukee.

So who should the Cubs, and their fans, look out for in the coming year as a potential threat to a possible three-peat as division champions?

The Reds of 2009 are light years ahead of where most observers would have believed them to be just a few short years ago. Gone are their bombers, Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey, Jr. Gone are the players of their future, Wily Mo Pena and Austin Kearns.Also gone was their one year wonder, Josh Hamilton.

But they, unlike the Pirates, have made a few moves to improve their ballclub while unloading older, or underproducing, players.

Let's look at how the Cubs match up against the Reds, position-by-position, heading into Spring Training.

Catcher: Ramon Hernandez vs. Geovany Soto

In 2008, Soto carried his momentum from 2007's September call-up into not only significant playing time, but into hardware. He consistently performed well in run-producing situations in the lower half of the Cubs batting order and was credited by many of the Cubs pitchers for their overall success in 2008.

Hernandez is coming off a few overpaid, but relatively productive seasons in Baltimore. He'll be 33 in May, and hit 15 home runs last year in the competitive American League East. With the Reds' young pitching staff, he'll be relied upon to call a good game and bring the leadership the team lacked with the turnstile of backstops they've tried the last few years.

Edge: Soto

First Base: Joey Votto vs. Derrek Lee

Lee's offensive numbers have fallen off annually since his wrist injury ended his 2006 prematurely. In 2008, he developed a new nickname, DP-Lee, given his knack for grounding into routine double plays. The 33-year old saw his batting average slide to .291 with just 20 home runs and 90 runs batted in.

Though his offense has not lived up to the promise of his stunning 2005 season (46 homers, 107 RBI), his defense continues to be as good as anyone in baseball at first.

Votto, who will be just 25 until September, put up comparable offensive numbers to Lee in his first real season in the majors in 2008. He batted .297 with 24 homers and 84 runs batted in, numbers that showed the usual rookie peaks and valleys.

He's the centerpiece of a young offense that should grow together into something the Cubs should be scared of in the next few years.

Edge: Votto

Second Base:  Brandon Phillips vs. Aaron Miles

Miles comes to Chicago after a tumultuous season in St. Louis that saw him hit .315 with a solid .355 on-base percentage in 134 games. But towards the end of the season, Miles fell out of favor with Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa and saw the bulk of the playing time down the stretch go to Adam Kennedy (who has since been cut by the Cardinals).

The Cubs picked up Miles out of free agency on New Year's Eve, bringing a switch-hitter  to the top of the Cubs batting order. Coupled with Mike Fontenot, the Cubs will have a tandem that will certainly get on base, but the falloff in the power categories will be noticed from the departure of DeRosa.

Phillips, meanwhile, is a rare middle-of-the-order second baseman. He was clutch last year and displayed the same offensive production that made him a top prospect in Cleveland's system earlier in his career.

Though his average slid to .261 (also a function of the departures of Dunn and Griffey), he still managed to hit 21 home runs and add 7 RBI despite missing time due to injury. Still only 27-years old until June, Phillips is still one of the better second baseman in the National League.

Edge: Phillips

Shortstop: Jeff Keppinger/Alex Gonzalez vs. Ryan Theriot

In 2008 Theriot was quietly one of the better offensive shortstops in the National League. He batted .307 with a robust .387 on-base percentage batting anywhere from leadoff to eighth in the Cubs' order.

While he might not have the speed of the many great shortstops in the NL, he was deceptive enough to steal 22 bases last year. His defense has occasionaly left something to be desired, as he committed 14 errors last year.

Gonzalez missed all of 2008 with an injury, so Keppinger took advantage. Keppinger hit .266 in 121 games, showing minimal power (3 homers) but a knack for hitting in timely situations.

Between these two, the best option to see time at short might be a wild card, Danny Richar, a young middle infielder acquired from the White Sox in the Griffey trade. In any event, this is one of the most wide-open position battles in the division this spring.

Edge: Theriot

Third Base: Edwin Encarnacion vs. Aramis Ramirez

In the five seasons he has been a Cub, Ramirez has driven in over 100 runs four times, hit over 26 home runs each season, and has seen his batting average and on-base percentages consistently rank among the best of third basemen in baseball. In 2008, Ramirez was named the Hank Aaron Award winner in the National League.

Ramirez has also improved his defense enough that he is now above average at third, where he was a liability in his younger days.

Encarnacion was rushed to the majors and showed all sorts of the same abilities (and issues) a young Ramirez did. He'll be just 26 years old in 2009, and is coming off a season in which he hit 26 home runs and drove in 68 to go with a respectable .340 OBP. His major issue, though, will continue to be his defense. He committed 23 errors in 2008.

Edge: Ramirez

Left Field: Chris Dickerson vs. Alfonso Soriano

Soriano has about as many holes in his swing as he does fears of the brick outfield wall at Wrigley, but he's a game changing force wherever he ends up in the batting order. Even with leg injuries taking him out of the lineup in 2008, Soriano still hit 29 home runs and knocked in 75 runs from the leadoff spot.

His arm is as deceptively solid as any in left, but his limited range as a converted middle infielder has led to some frustration from both the coaches and fans.

Dickerson is one of the diaper dandies on the Reds roster at just 27 years old (in April) In limited action after the trades of Dunn and Griffey last year, he hit .304 with a .413 OBP in 31 games.

Maybe the leadoff man the Reds had hoped they were grooming in Corey Patterson (sound familiar?), Dickerson managed to score 20 times in his 31 games last year. He's likely to platoon in left with Norris Hopper, another youngster with a lot of talent.

Edge: Soriano

Center Field: Willy Tavarez vs Reed Johnson/Kosuke Fukudome

Johnson burst onto the Chicago scene last year after being waived by the Toronto Blue Jays at the end of Spring Training. After a head-first slide into the left-center field wall, he was bordering on hero status.

But over the course of the season, another waiver wire gem, Jim Edmonds, proved he had something left in the tank and stole a good portion of the playing time in the Cubs' predominantly right-handed hitting batting order.

Fukudome, on the other hand, became the first Japanese-born Cub last year with much fanfare. However, he played himself into the doghouse. The tandem, with speedster Joey Gathright as a wildcard, will be an intriguing mix to watch.

Tavarez is one of the few free agent bats to come to the Reds this winter, bringing more speed to the top of the order. Though it seems like he's been around forever, Tavarez just turned 27 on Christmas Day.

Even though he lacks the plate discipline ideal for a leadoff man (ehem, Soriano), he  managed to steal 68 bases last year in 75 attempts, even with a .251 batting average.  His defense has never been anything special, but he is arguably the best true leadoff man in the division.

Edge: Even

Right Field: Jay Bruce vs. Milton Bradley

Bradley has played in more than 100 games in a season only twice since 2004. He was primarily a designated hitter in 2008, hitting behind the story of the decade, Josh Hamilton.

While his numbers were incredible (.436 OBP) and he ended near the top of the American League with a .321 batting average, he did it without playing the tough-to-navigate right field at Wrigley. He hit fewer home runs and drove in fewer runs than DeRosa, whose place he'll take in the middle of the Cubs batting order.

General Manager Jim Hendry has fallen in love with his patience at the plate and his switch-hitting ability. Whether or not Cub fans follow suit, and whether or not Bradley can avoid both injury and suspension, are yet to be seen.

In his rookie season of just 108 games, Bruce burst onto the scene and is personally the reason Dunn and Griffey became expendable. Bruce hit 21 home runs and drove in 52 runs in limited action, and he figures to be the center of the Reds offense for quite some time.

As the season drew on, his plate discipline showed some holes and the barrage of power with which he began his career slowed. However, he should continue to torment the Cubs for years to come.

Edge: Bruce

Starting Pitching: Edinson Volquez, Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey vs. Carlos Zambrano, Rich Harden, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster and Sean Marshall

First, let's admit that neither team has figured out their fifth starter yet. But, in Harden, the Cubs have an injury-prone pitcher that has arguably some of  the best stuff in all of baseball. Zambrano's abilities are as limitless as the potential for what he might do on the mound emotionally.

But, when placed in the context of having two 17-game winners pitching third and fourth in their rotation, the Cubs an edge on many teams in baseball.

The Reds staff is bolstered by Volquez, the 25-year old phenom they received for Hamilton from Texas. A player that struggled to crack a woeful rotation in Arlington, Volquez arrived in Cincinnati throwing hard. He posted an impressive 17-6 record with 206 strikeouts and a 3.21 ERA.

Behind him, the Reds will hope for bounce back seasons from veterans Harang and Arroyo and look for continued improvement from Cueto and Bailey.

Edge: Cubs (though Volquez might be the best starter in the division)

Bullpen: Francisco Cordero, Arthur Rhodes, David Weathers, Bill Bray and Mike Lincoln vs. Carlos Marmol, Kevin Gregg, Jeff Samardzija, Chad Gaudin, Neal Cotts and Aaron Heilman.

Cordero and Rhodes have been brought in to bolster a bullpen that has very little other major league talent in it. Meanwhile, the Cubs only question is whether or not they have someone to consistently get lefties out in situational spots late in games.

While both teams have new faces, the Cubs have replaced leaders and veterans with questions.

Will Heilman be the fifth starter? Or will Samardzija?

Will Gregg be the closer? Or will Marmol?

Can Cotts be the only lefty in the pen?

Who's the leader that will fill Kerry Wood's locker?

Who will give up gopher home runs to make the opposition feel better in blow outs like Bob Howry did the last couple years?

Edge: Cubs

Manager: Dusty Baker vs. Lou Piniella.

LOL

Edge: Piniella.

Verdict:It might shock some people to see how many positions the Reds covered in this comparison. As fans look at 2010 and beyond, the Reds might indeed be the team to beat in the National League Central, with one of the better young nucleus in baseball.

To someone who tracks talent development and quality of trades, the Reds might be one starter and a couple middle relievers from resembling the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays.

The Reds are going to be a team the Cubs will have to battle with for every victory in 2009 and beyond. While Milwaukee figures to be in the mix for the division crown for a few years to come, it may be the Reds that creep up on people.

There is no question which front office has done a better job of moving talent, developing young talent, and adding key veterans to build a solid, young club.

While, the Cubs continue to overpay outfielders with question marks, the Reds payroll in 2009 has only two players making more than $10 million and will likely be more than $40 million less than the Cubs.