Formula 1: European Grand Prix at Valencia Predictions

The European Grand Prix takes place on Sunday at the Valencia Street Circuit, Spain.

Fans have come to expect little from races here—since it was first held in 2008, the Valencia race has produced consistently dull and processional high-speed parades, and there's little to suggest this year will be any different.

The layout is uninspiring, it's difficult to overtake and the dazzling waterfront Spanish Monaco a few of us (well, I) thought might appear around the circuit after it opened has yet to materialise.

Perhaps due to the continuing worldwide financial crisis affecting the development of aesthetically-pleasing structures, the surrounding area still looks like an ugly work-in-progress cross between a container port and an industrial estate.

Which is exactly what it is.

But perhaps if fans criticise the place enough, one day it'll host an epic just to prove us wrong.

As usual, here are my qualifying and race thoughts and predictions.

Once more, apologies to regular readers for the lateness of this article. The aim is always getting it out before first practice, but outside influences don't always play nice with my writing commitments.

Pole Position

For all its faults, the Valencia Street Circuit is a real challenge for the drivers. A long lap with 25 corners provides plenty of opportunities to find or lose crucial tenths of a second.

The track surface will probably throw up variable levels of grip as the cars move from oft-to seldom-used sections, and the high temperatures could make it harder to manage the multi-lap runs we usually see in Q1 and Q2.

Add in the need to keep aside fresh tyres for the race, and we have a recipe for a very interesting qualifying battle.

And maybe a little more spread out than usual.

In keeping with the 2012 tradition, plenty of drivers have a chance of pole. Sebastian Vettel put his Monaco worries behind him with a great lap in Canada, while teammate Mark Webber is producing some very strong displays following his disappointing 2011.

Fernando Alonso is now capable of challenging for the front row at every event, and Lewis Hamilton has been by far the most consistent qualifier of the year.

Then we come to the likes of Mercedes, Lotus and the recently-struggling Jenson Butto—plenty of men to keep our eyes on. Realistically, it could be any one of around seven drivers.

But in the end, I think we could see Alonso taking his first pole position since Singapore in 2010.

Every driver feels the benefit of a home crowd, and the Ferrari has evolved into a formidable car after a shocking start to the season.

So he's my pick for pole.

How Will Jenson Button Fare?

Jenson Button started the season brightly with a win, but in recent races he's been a long way off the pace of Hamilton. In Canada, while one silver car was winning, the other was a lap down in 16th.

It was as if they were driving different cars.

The two McLaren drivers are very different behind the wheel, and there is clearly something about Button's style and preferred car setup which isn't going smoothly at all. As the MP4-27 develops, the Brit seems to be going backwards.

McLaren operations director Simon Roberts admitted a problem exists in the way the car and driver gel together:

"

I’m not going to go into exactly what they are but they are very subtle. It isn’t like they are running a fundamentally different aero balance or anything like that. This is buried down in the detail. And you’re seeing already this year how teams get right in the sweet spot with the tyres or miss it and I don’t think we were far off. There was definitely nothing fundamentally wrong with his set-up. But on the day, clearly there was underperformance. We think we’ve stepped nearer to understanding it all. Whether we’ve cracked it, only time will tell. It’s been a painful but interesting learning exercise for us.

"

Though remaining tight-lipped on the precise nature of the issue, admitting it exists is half the battle.

Button is undoubtedly a very talented driver, but he perhaps lacks the ability to drive around a problem as well as someone like Hamilton or Alonso.

McLaren says they understand the issue more, and I'm inclined to believe them. Jenson should go better in Valencia than he did in Barcelona, Canada and Monaco.

But I don't think the problem has gone away, and it's highly unlikely he'll be able to match the pace of Hamilton this weekend.

Top six will probably be the aim.

The Felipe Massa Saga Continues

Monaco saw something of a resurgence for Felipe Massa.

He qualified just one tenth of a second behind Alonso and drove a calm, controlled race to finish fifth, just six seconds behind winner Mark Webber.

In Canada it was more of the same, a good lap in qualifying placing the Brazilian sixth at the start. But a somewhat strange spin while lying fifth dropped him to 12th, and it was all about recovery from there on in.

Massa's pace was similar to Alonso's for much of the race, and had it lasted a few laps longer, two-stopping Felipe would have caught and passed one-stopping Fernando.

But that spin is the sort of thing we might expect from a rookie, not a seasoned veteran of 159 starts.

Without mistakes, Massa should enjoy another good weekend.

He finally feels the car is under him, and though he won't beat Alonso, a top five finish should be within his reach.

Where Will the Surprises Come From?

One of my predicted surprises will be the winner, but we'll get to that in a moment.

I can see two teams in particular having unusual races.

Williams had a poor weekend in Canada, continuing their somewhat erratic season. They claimed a win last time F1 visited Spain, and while I don't think they can repeat that feat on Sunday, their car might go better here than it has elsewhere of late.

If Pastor Maldonado can get to the grid without picking up a penalty for something (he's lost 25 places already this year in just seven races) he could put the car close to the top six.

Bruno Senna still has plenty to prove. He qualified well during his run with Lotus-Renault last year, but hasn't reached Q3 at all so far in 2012. It's hard to back him for anything right now, but I have a feeling he could have a good weekend.

It's more of an inkling though, rather than a rational prediction.

The high track temperatures predicted may mean someone else heads in the opposite direction. Mercedes seem more at home when the track is cooler, so the German team might find themselves on the wrong end of the surprise stick.

Which is unfortunate, as Michael Schumacher having a bad race removes one name from the ever-shrinking list of potential eighth winners.

And I'll back a Caterham—probably driven by Heikki Kovalainen—to outqualify a Toro Rosso once more. Though I'm unsure if that still counts as a surprise.

Race Winner

Valencia tends to be processional, and it'll most likely be strategy rather than speed which determines the winner on Sunday.

In Canada, we saw how a tiny strategic error can cost even the best drivers the chance of a win. We also saw how unproven youngsters can suddenly find themselves in contention if their car is kind to the tyres.

I can see Valencia being particularly difficult to judge so far as degradation and speed differential between the compounds is concerned.

Two stops will probably be what most drivers want to go with, but not all cars will be able to carry good speed throughout the entire race without risking excessive wear.

And while it's relatively easy to defend at Valencia if you and your rival have similar speed, defending with worn-out tyres will be something else entirely.

For that reason (and maybe a little bit of wishful thinking) I'm leaning towards an eighth different winner this season.

Lotus have an exceptionally good car for consistent speed through long runs, and appear capable of running their tyres further than most of their rivals. I've said it before and I'll say it again—I believe it's the best overall race car.

But to date, they've been let down by poor qualifying and a little bit of substandard driving. As good as Kimi Raikkonen was, he hasn't recaptured his old form—and despite two podiums, question marks remain over Romain Grosjean.

That said, maybe the European Grand Prix will be their race.

And though his teammate is surely the better driver if both are on top of their game, I'll pick Grosjean as the man who'll be standing on the top step of the podium this Sunday.

Because at the moment, I trust him to perform well more than I trust Raikkonen.

All he has to do is get past the first lap.