5 Current AL Contenders Who Will End Up Pretenders

Entering Friday's action, nine of the American League's 14 teams were over .500, and there were a grand total of eight teams within 6.5 games of first place in their respective divisions.

In other words, there are only three or four teams in the AL that can be considered truly out of the playoff picture.

The list of AL contenders will slowly be whittled down as the season progresses. However, we're at a point in the season where we really can't say "Yeah, but it's still early" anymore. There's a lot of baseball left to be played, but teams have shown us what they have and what they don't have.

We can, therefore, judge them accordingly—which is good, because we, as baseball people, love to judge stuff.

Today, your humble narrator is going to take a stab at pinpointing which AL contenders are going to fall short of the postseason. There are five in particular that I want to talk about.

Now would be a good time to put on your angry hat if you happen to have one.

Note: Special thanks to Baseball-Reference.com for the key stats.

Chicago White Sox

Back in March, Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com said he had spoken to a scout who figured the White Sox could lose 100 games this season.

It turns out they're a lot better than that, which is to say they're not freakin' terrible. And I'll admit, they're better than I thought they would be.

The White Sox enter Friday's action with a record of 36-33, putting them half a game off the pace set by the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central. They're on pace to win about 85 games.

Their record is misleading, though. The White Sox are where they are largely because of a stretch in May in which they won 12-of-13 games. They looked unbeatable, and their hotness had a lot to do with the fact that pretty much everyone in their lineup was hitting.

Before that hot stretch, the White Sox were under .500. Since that hot stretch, they're under .500. 

What we have here is further proof that no team is ever as good as it looks when it's hot.

This is particularly true of the White Sox. They may not be a 100-loss team, but they're a team with a lot of weaknesses. The only two starting pitchers they can rely on to give them quality outings consistently are Jake Peavy and Chris Sale. One is injury-prone, and the other has already set a career high in innings pitched. That doesn't bode well.

Offensively, the White Sox have a lot of inconsistent hitters wrapped around Adam Dunn and Konerko. Dunn basically only walks, strikes out and homers, and Konerko is hitting about .260 with a slugging percentage under .400 since the start of June (h/t Baseball-Reference.com). It's no wonder their offense has slowed down considerably this month.

So pay that hot streak no mind. The White Sox have shown their true colors before and after said streak, not during it.

Cleveland Indians

The Cleveland Indians frustrate me to no end.

I've written on more than one occasion that the Indians shouldn't be as good as they are. The only team in the AL with a worse run differential than them is the Minnesota Twins—a sign that the Indians should be in their territory rather than in first place in the AL Central. They're not in that position because they have that little extra something that all teams want and few have.

There are things to like about the Indians. Jason Kipnis and Asdrubal Cabrera make for a highly exciting middle infield duo, Shin-Soo Choo has been money hitting out of the leadoff spot, Casey Kotchman has really come around after a slow start and we know that Carlos Santana is better than he's shown.

Even still, Cleveland's offense is hardly a juggernaut, and that doesn't bode well for them because their starting pitching staff has a lot of problems.

Justin Masterson has been on a great run lately, but AL clubs have killed him this season. Derek Lowe has plummeted back to earth after a hot start. Ubaldo Jimenez is doing his thing, which isn't good. Jeanmar Gomez is usually awful—ditto Josh Tomlin.

The Indians haven't been killed by their starting rotation because of their bullpen, which ranks among the league leaders in wins. Chris Perez has been dynamite closing games out.

But if ever there was a bullpen that was a candidate to get overworked, it's Cleveland's. The Indians' pen could go through what Atlanta's pen went through last season, except worse. 

The Indians are on pace to win about 86 games, and I can see them getting close to that. But they've already done more than enough to show us that they have a pretty low ceiling, and that's going to be the case as long as their starting pitching staff is so darned mediocre.

I'm expecting them to win more like 82 games, which won't be enough to win the AL Central.

Toronto Blue Jays

We shall now transition into the AL East, where all five teams are within 6.5 games of one another as of the start of play on Friday.

The Blue Jays currently find themselves in last place in the division, albeit just one game behind the Boston Red Sox for fourth place.

I don't see the Jays climbing out of it, and that has everything to do with their pitching.

Or lack thereof, I should say.

The Blue Jays' starting rotation has an ERA over 5.00 in the month of June, and that's largely because injuries have forced them to call up scrubs from their minor league system that have no business being on a major league mound. 

The good news is that they're going to get Brandon Morrow back. Eventually, they'll get Drew Hutchison back. Kyle Drabek, however, has been lost for the season.

It's going to be a while before the Jays get healthy and regain some sense of stability in their starting rotation. The problem in the meantime is that they don't have the pitching depth to stay afloat, as they're using lackluster stopgap starters and their bullpen is currently being badly overworked. And indeed, Toronto's bullpen isn't all that great to begin with.

The one thing you have to like about the Jays is the amount of power they pack on offense. Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion are a lethal duo, Colby Rasmus has caught fire after a mechanical adjustment, and Brett Lawrie has found his power stroke.

However, the Jays have shown in the month of June that their offense can only do so much with the pitching staff as weak as it is. They've scored a ton of runs, but their run differential for the month is a mere plus-one.

So as strange as it seems, they don't have enough power. It's just not looking good for them this season.

Baltimore Orioles

Anybody who has read my work over the last couple months will know that I've come around to the Orioles. I didn't buy their hot start, but they're still winning ballgames. It's too late in the season to label them as a fluke.

On the contrary, the Orioles are a quality baseball team. They have the goods to stay in the race until the bitter end. Seeing as how they play in the AL East, that's saying a lot.

My problem with the Orioles, not surprisingly, begins with their pitching staff. Wei-Yin Chen has been hit or miss, but he's having a good season. Jason Hammel is having a good season too, though, he needs to start being more efficient on a more consistent basis.

Beyond these two guys, the O's have problems. Jake Arrieta has been a mess for over a month, Brian Matusz is as unreliable as they come, and the same is very much true of Tommy Hunter.

Much like the Indians, the Orioles are making up for their lackluster starting pitching with their excellent bullpen. And it really is excellent. Baltimore's bullpen ERA is 2.38—lowest in baseball.

Unfortunately, Baltimore's bullpen is also among the league leaders in innings pitched, making it yet another candidate to get burned out down the stretch.

Offensively, the Orioles have some good hitters, chief among them being MVP candidate Adam Jones. However, theirs is a really hot and cold offense, and it's been dreadfully cold this month. Nick Markakis, who is on the DL with a wrist injury, has been missed.

Despite my reservations, it bears repeating that these Orioles are a quality baseball team. They're on pace to win 89 games, and they haven't won that many games since the late 90s.

I'm thinking 85 is a more likely target. That many wins will make Buck Showalter a lock for Manager of the Year, but it won't put the O's in the playoffs.

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox are the ultimate boom-or-bust team.

They could be a bust simply because all signs are pointing toward this not being their year. They have a lot of payroll on the disabled list, key hitters like Adrian Gonzalez aren't contributing and supposed staff ace Jon Lester hasn't been very ace-like.

If you're a Red Sox fan, you'll know that I only covered about a fifth of Boston's problems right there.

However, the Red Sox could go boom because they're going to get healthy at some point. When they do, they're going to have as much talent as any team in the American League. Carl Crawford will be in left, Jacoby Ellsbury will be in center, Andrew Bailey will be in the bullpen, Josh Beckett will be back in the starting rotation and so on.

And yes, you have to figure that the Red Sox will trade Kevin Youkilis, thus opening up an opportunity for Will Middlebrooks to play every day. There will be much rejoicing in Boston on that day.

With all the right pieces in all the right places, the Red Sox will be capable of playing .600 baseball the rest of the way, which would put them very much in the mix both in the AL East and the AL wild-card picture.

But that's only if everything goes right. Seeing as how everything has gone wrong for the Red Sox this season, assuming that their luck is going to come around requires one hell of a leap of faith.

It's a leap of faith I simply cannot make. All signs are pointing towards this not being Boston's year because this isn't Boston's year.

So That Leaves...

AL West: Texas Rangers

Fully healthy, the Rangers are the best team in baseball. The Angels are going to give them a run for their money, but the Rangers are a really good team that will only get better once their key injured players come back.

AL Central: Detroit Tigers

The Tigers have been a huge disappointment, but they've been playing well lately. You get the feeling they're starting to discover an identity. If they stay healthy and Dave Dombrowski goes out and buys at the trade deadline, they'll be able to win the division.

AL East: Tampa Bay Rays

I picked the Rays to win the AL East before the start of the season, and I'm not about to back down. They've hit a rough patch due to some injury issues, but they'll be able to get hot and go on a run once they reassemble their starting pitching staff, and Evan Longoria returns to the hot corner.

AL Wild Card 1: Los Angeles Angels

Now that Jered Weaver is back, the Angels don't have a whole lot to worry about. I look forward to watching Mike Trout state his case for the American League MVP award.

AL Wild Card 2: New York Yankees

The Yankees are an imperfect team, but their starting pitching staff has surpassed my expectations and their bullpen hasn't felt the loss of Mariano Rivera. As long as they keep the homers coming, they'll be OK.

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