NBA Mock Draft 2012: Full 2-Round Projections for Next-Generation Ballers
We're getting ever so close to the day when mock drafts will finally be replaced by the real thing. Despite all of our best guesses, scouting reports and combine results, that real thing will be inevitably full of surprises.
One way or another, today's collegiate and international prospects will soon form a current of rising talent at the professional level.
Taking stock of what these guys can do and where they will go just might give us some hint of what tomorrow's NBA will look like. Our crystal balls remain somewhat clouded by the inevitable trades, changes of heart and insider knowledge that front offices aren't necessarily sharing like candy.
But, we can still take our best guesses—at least until June 28 rolls around. Here's how the draft's two rounds might play out.
First Round
1. New Orleans Hornets: Anthony Davis, PF (Kentucky)
The first reason the Hornets are likely to take Davis is that absolutely no one seems to think otherwise. Yes, it's one of those drafts where you'll have to wait until the second pick for any mystery. New Orleans will take a dominant defender and build around him and Eric Gordon, as the club takes its rebuilding process to a new—and exciting—level.
2. Charlotte Bobcats: Thomas Robinson, PF (Kansas)
As much as I'd like to see Michael Kidd-Gilchrist go here (and as much as he'd make sense on Charlotte's wing), the Bobcats may have other ideas in mind. Ultimately, Robinson is equally deserving of the spot and would provide a jolt to Charlotte's culture and listless offense alike.
3. Washington Wizards: Bradley Beal, SG (Florida)
Washington's acquisition of Trevor Ariza makes it less likely it will select Kidd-Gilchrist on account of the fact that both are defensively oriented small forwards. That could mean that Beal gets the nod and winds up replacing Jordan Crawford as John Wall's running mate in the backcourt.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF (Kentucky)
Based on talent alone, it might seem improbable for MKG to slip this far. He probably shouldn't, but events may have conspired to cause exactly that to happen. That's fantastic for Cleveland—Kyrie Irving could use an up-tempo partner, and the Cavs definitely need someone on the wing to replace or supplement Alonzo Gee.
5. Sacramento Kings: Harrison Barnes, SF (North Carolina)
The Kings could go after someone more exotic here, but Barnes is the safest bet. He could turn into a better version of Luol Deng, and that would be a huge addition for a team lacking length on the wing (and defensive ability in general).
6. Portland Trail Blazers (from Brooklyn Nets): Andre Drummond, C (UConn)
Yes, he's a risk, but Portland badly needs a center. If possible, the Trail Blazers would love to get their hands on one of the top four picks, each of which is more likely to be a sure thing.
Look for them to use their lottery picks to trade up (or for a proven veteran). If a good deal doesn't come along, though, Drummond is worth the gamble.
7. Golden State Warriors: Perry Jones III, PF (Baylor)
If you look at some mock drafts, Jones could fall outside of the lottery altogether. He hasn't demonstrated a consistent motor on either end of the floor, and that understandably scares some teams off.
Golden State would be wise to take a chance. It needs something more athletic than Andrew Bogut and David Lee on the interior, and Jones will be that at the very least. At best, he could develop into an All-Star.
8. Toronto Raptors: Jeremy Lamb, SG (UConn)
It's too soon to tell if Lamb will be a well-rounded, All-Star scorer, but we know he can shoot. That's more than Toronto can say for DeMar DeRozan at this point. He's also more explosive and athletic than meets the eye, and he could quickly make DeRozan expendable trade bait.
9. Detroit Pistons: Terrence Jones, SF (Kentucky)
Jones is the prototypical wild card. He has tons of potential, a rare combination of physical tools and versatile talent. Nevertheless, he still hasn't proven fully able to put those things together.
Bottom line: When you can get a guy who passes like a guard and defends the rim like a big man, you have to give him a chance.
10. New Orleans Hornets (via Minnesota Timberwolves): Damian Lillard, PG (Weber State)
Lillard is the best all-around point guard in the draft, and he's one of its best scorers as well. He could go to the Raptors or perhaps even Portland at the sixth pick. If not, the Hornets should take him based on long-term value alone.
11. Portland Trail Blazers: Kendall Marshall, PG (North Carolina)
This pick obviously won't make any sense if Portland takes Lillard with its first lottery selection. If it goes with a big man like Drummond, though, Marshall is the next-best floor general available.
12. Milwaukee Bucks: Tyler Zeller, C (North Carolina)
If the Bucks don't take the riskier step of drafting Meyers Leonard, Zeller is the perfect fit to replace Andrew Bogut. He already plays with a lot of maturity and is more skilled than the average big man. Zeller has a nice touch around the basket, plenty of energy and a better passing ability than most seven-footers.
13. Phoenix Suns: Austin Rivers, G (Duke)
You could easily argue that either Terrence Ross or Dion Waiters is the better pick here, but it's hard not to like Rivers' potential to excel at the NBA level. He's a smart player with dangerous shooting ability, and that's not easy to come by.
14. Houston Rockets: John Henson, PF (North Carolina)
Henson is more likely to turn into Serge Ibaka than an All-Star, but wouldn't you take Ibaka with a late lottery pick? Even if he doesn't turn out quite that well, he'd still give Houston a different look from Luis Scola.
15. Philadelphia 76ers: Terrence Ross, SG (Washington)
Ross is one of the most promising guys in this draft, and all things being equal, he could probably go in the top 10. Given that not every team needs a shooting guard, he could fall to Philly—much to its delight.
16. Houston Rockets (via New York Knicks): Dion Waiters, G (Syracuse)
Waiters gives Houston a dynamic slasher with a shot at becoming a poor man's Dwyane Wade. In other words, he's the polar opposite of Kevin Martin, and that would help diversify the Rockets' backcourt options.
17. Dallas Mavericks: Meyers Leonard, C (Illinois)
Leonard is raw, but he could wind up being the best center in the draft at the end of the day. He sounds like just the kind of risk Mark Cuban might like to take, especially at this stage when most of the legitimate lottery talent is off the board.
18. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Utah Jazz): Moe Harkless, SF (St. John's)
If Waiters or Ross is still around, Minnesota obviously needs a shooting guard. Otherwise, it's better off going for Harkless than reaching for a guy who could very well fall to the second round (e.g. Will Barton or John Jenkins).
19. Orlando Magic: Arnett Moultrie, PF (Mississippi St.)
With Dwight Howard all but certain to leave town and Ryan Anderson a free agent, the Magic should be looking for help in the paint, one way or another. Moultrie isn't really a center, but he's a solid 6'11", athletic and can shoot from the perimeter.
20. Denver Nuggets: Marquis Teague, PG (Kentucky
If the Nuggets are confident enough that Tony Wroten Jr. will live up to his potential, the battle-tested Teague appears to be the safer bet. Teague is a bit of a reach here, but Denver really doesn't need much besides a backup point guard.
21. Boston Celtics: Royce White, SF/PF (Iowa State)
Forget the concerns about White's struggles with an anxiety order. Half of these guys have far bigger problems and are nowhere near this kid's ability to impact the game from both forward positions—and on both ends of the floor.
22. Boston Celtics (via Los Angeles Clippers): Fab Melo, C (Syracuse)
Melo edges out Festus Ezeli as the next-best big man principally by virtue of his explosiveness and athleticism. Boston needs a center in the worst way, and Melo is a start.
23. Atlanta Hawks: Tony Wroten Jr., PG/SG (Washington)
The Hawks could go with a safer bet like Jeff Taylor or Draymond Green, but Atlanta desperately needs some backcourt depth behind Jeff Teague, especially if free agent Kirk Hinrich doesn't return. Plus, Wroten has the kind of ceiling that could earn him a lottery selection in some drafts.
24. Cleveland Cavaliers (from Los Angeles Lakers): Jared Sullinger, PF (Ohio State)
Sullinger's recently-revealed back problems will keep him out of the lottery without question. If teams are sufficiently scared off, he might even drop to the second round. That's probably an overreaction, and a club like Cleveland could capitalize and acquire a skilled low-post scorer.
25. Memphis Grizzlies: Jeff Taylor, SF (Vanderbilt)
Rudy Gay doesn't have much of a backup, and Taylor just has too much talent to slide any further. He's an excellent defender and top-notch athlete—a perfect fit for the Grizzlies' style of play.
26. Indiana Pacers: Draymond Green, F (Michigan St.)
Green is a perfect fit for a playoff team looking for an intelligent, versatile player to bolster the bench unit. He'd give the Pacers a little bit of everything and provide Danny Granger a serviceable understudy.
27. Miami Heat: Festus Ezeli, C (Vanderbilt)
Ezeli's imposing size and ability to guard the rim make up for his relatively non-existent offensive game. The Heat don't need another scorer. They just need someone to protect the paint, and Ezeli measures up as a solid solution (literally).
28. Oklahoma City Thunder: Evan Fournier, SG (Poitiers)
If the Thunder don't get rid of this pick, look for them to go after a promising prospect that can keep busy overseas until some roster spots open up. Fournier is a good shooter with the kind of unconventional European game that sometimes thrives in the NBA.
29. Chicago Bulls: Will Barton G/F (Memphis)
The Bulls could go after the best point guard left on the board, or they could choose a shooter like John Jenkins or Doron Lamb. Barton is probably the best all-around offensive backcourt threat at this point, though, so I give him the edge.
30. Golden State Warriors (via San Antonio Spurs): John Jenkins, SG (Vanderbilt)
Jenkins is a bit like a smaller version of Klay Thompson—a pure shooter with a quick release. The Warriors might also look for a point guard, but chances are they can still find a pretty good one in the second round.
Second Round
31. Charlotte Bobcats: Andrew Nicholson, PF (St. Bonaventure)
Nicholson could very well go a few spots higher, especially if fears about Sullinger's back send him to the second round. One way or another, though, Charlotte needs to get its hands on a post player who can actually score. Nicholson fits the profile, especially with a consistent mid-range jumper that can spread the floor.
32. Washington Wizards: Doron Lamb, SG (Kentucky)
If Washington ends up picking Beal, Lamb might be one piece too many in the backcourt, but he's a good enough shooter to take anyway. Besides, Jordan Crawford could always become trade bait if the Wizards need to open up some minutes.
33. Cleveland Cavaliers: Quincy Miller, SF (Baylor)
Despite an incredibly athletic 6'10" physique and undeniable upside, there are concerns about his ACL that could send him to the back of the first round. A team like the Cavs could make good use of the versatility on the wing. If Miller falls this far, he'd be a steal and one of those rare second-rounders with star potential.
34. Cleveland Cavaliers: Jared Cunningham, G (Oregon State)
Cunningham looked good at the draft combine, and it wouldn't hurt for the Cavaliers to start grooming a backup for Kyrie Irving. We all know that even great young point guards can get injured.
35. Golden State Warriors: Tyshawn Taylor, PG (Kansas)
If the Warriors don't take a point guard in the first round, now is the time. Stephen Curry isn't a picture of durability, and Taylor has enough big-game experience to step in sooner than many second-round picks.
36. Sacramento Kings: Kyle O'Quinn, F/C (Norfolk State)
If the Kings end up taking someone like Andre Drummond in the lottery, they'd probably be going in a different direction here. Scouts like what they see from O'Quinn, so he's a great value here.
37. Toronto Raptors: Miles Plumlee, F/C (Duke)
Plumlee didn't put up huge numbers at Duke, but he's a good athlete and would give the Raptors a different look behind the perimeter shooting of Andreas Bargnani. Some time in the D-League might be in order, but then again, that's a possibility for most of these second-round picks.
38. Denver Nuggets: Orlando Johnson, SG (UC Santa Barbara)
Johnson has gotten himself into excellent shape and could surprise some people with his offensive skills. The Nuggets might even be able to find some minutes for him behind Arron Afflalo.
39. Detroit Pistons: Drew Gordon, PF (New Mexico)
Gordon won't wow anyone offensively, but he's a solid, athletic defender in the paint—something Detroit could use alongside Greg Monroe. That doesn't mean he'll walk into the starting lineup right away, but it might not take long given Detroit's alternatives.
40. Portland Trail Blazers: Scott Machado, PG (Iona)
This might be a bit of a reach for Machado, but it could happen if there aren't any better point guards available. Portland could also opt to move one or both of its second-round picks given that it already has two lottery picks (of which it could also move one or both).
41. Portland Trail Blazers: Jae Crowder, F (Marquette)
With Gerald Wallace no longer in the picture, Portland could use a raw version thereof. That's exactly what Crowder is. He's full of hustle and could immediately bring some energy off the bench.
42. Milwaukee Bucks: William Buford, SG (Ohio State)
Buford is a good, solid scorer, and he might even get hold of some minutes behind Monta Ellis before too long. He was a huge part of Ohio State's successful year.
43. Atlanta Hawks: Darius Miller, SF (Kentucky)
Miller is an undersized forward, but he's not a bad scorer. Assuming Atlanta has addressed its backcourt needs, Miller could serve a similar purpose on the wing and add some depth—at least in time.
44. Detroit Pistons: Kostas Papanikolaou, F (Greece)
The Pistons already have a number of middling guys stockpiled on the wing (e.g. Jonas Jerebko), but Papanikolaou has good size for a forward and could incubate overseas while Detroit sheds some of its older holdovers like Prince and Villanueva.
45. Philadelphia 76ers: Kevin Jones, PF (West Virginia)
Jones is a little undersized, but he could learn to cope from Elton Brand. With Brand nearing the end of his run, Philly would be wise to stock up on potential replacements.
46. New Orleans Hornets: Tornike Shengelia, PF (Charleroi)
The Hornets have enough youth on their roster that you can expect them to either get rid of this pick or use it on a big guy they can keep stashed overseas a while longer.
47. Utah Jazz: Darius Johnson-Odom, SG (Marquette)
Given how stacked the Jazz are in the painted area, it wouldn't make much sense to take anything but a guard. Johnson-Odom is a bit undersized, but that doesn't mean he won't eventually find a way to be effective.
48. New York Knicks: Bernard James, C (Florida State)
New York doesn't have much behind Tyson Chandler, and that led to some undersized lineups for the Knicks this year. The 27-year-old (yes, you read that correctly) plays a lot like a smaller version of Chandler and could offer depth where it's needed.
49. Orlando Magic: Kim English, G/F (Missouri)
The Magic have some old legs hanging out around the perimeter, so a swingman like English could provide some valued youth. If Orlando has yet to add a big man, however, that might be the higher priority here.
50. Denver Nuggets: Mike Scott, PF (Virginia)
There's a good chance Denver could either look to trade this pick or acquire an international prospect. If not, Scott would give Denver a scorer at the 4 who could add a different dimension from Kenneth Faried.
51. Boston Celtics: Kevin Murphy, G/F (Tennessee Tech)
Murphy is a talented under-the-radar scorer who already has a well-diversified offensive game and perfect size for the wing. Boston needs more scoring off its bench, and Murphy could be a surprise find at this late point in the second round.
52. Golden State Warriors: Henry Sims, F/C (Georgetown)
Given Andrew Bogut's injury history, it wouldn't hurt to have a little extra insurance in the middle. Sims could struggle to get onto the roster right away, but he's a legitimate seven-footer, and those tend to be worth a shot this late in draft.
53. L.A. Clippers: JaMychal Green, F/C (Alabama)
What better backup for Blake Griffin than a raw approximation thereof? OK, so Green is a very raw version of Griffin, but his explosiveness would still play well on a team with Chris Paul running the show.
54. Philadelphia 76ers: Tu Holloway, PG (Xavier)
It would be only fitting for Jrue Holiday to have a backup named Tu Holloway. But seriously, with Lou Williams a free agent, adding some backcourt depth is the safe move here.
55. Dallas Mavericks: J'Covan Brown, PG (Texas)
Brown didn't get a chance to demonstrate a lot of his point-guard skills at UT with guys like Cory Joseph and Avery Bradley around, but he's better than advertised. He probably wouldn't get much playing time right away, but he could become a consistent backup point guard.
56. Toronto Raptors: Tomas Satoransky, G (Sevilla)
Satoransky is a big guard (6'7") with the ability to play some point. He's a long-term prospect to be sure, but Toronto likes going international and could do so again.
57. Brooklyn Nets: Khris Middleton, G/F (Texas A&M)
Middleton's reputation is at an all-time low thanks to disappointing follow-up to his promising sophomore campaign. The upside is that the Nets could find themselves making out like bandits if they can get the swingman back on track.
58. Minnesota Timberwolves: Furkan Aldemir, PF (Galatasaray)
Minnesota has more young talent than it knows what to do with. That suggests this pick either gets traded or used to acquire a long-term option who needn't come to the U.S. right away.
59. San Antonio Spurs: Leon Radosevic, F/C (Milano)
We know the Spurs like rolling the dice on overseas prospects, and it wouldn't hurt to stockpile another big man who could contribute a few years down the road.
60. Los Angeles Lakers: Kris Joseph, SF (Syracuse)
Joseph waited until his senior year to come out and became a pretty solid defender in the meantime. He doesn't have a power forward's size, but he doesn't have a perimeter player's instincts. That could be a problem, but given the Lakers' need for help on the wing, he's worth a look here.
