NL Cy Young Award Rankings: R.A. Dickey Charges Past Matt Cain for Top Spot

I can understand if some readers and commenters might think we're doing some bandwagon jumping in these NL Cy Young Award rankings. 

Last week, Matt Cain took a motorcycle jump to the top spot on our list of contenders after throwing a perfect game. Some commenters questioned the timing of that, but in my mind, Cain would have cracked the top five anyway. So how could he not shoot to the top after that effort? 

There's little question as to who the No. 1 contender for the NL Cy Young Award is this week. If you feel the choice was made just because of R.A. Dickey's most recent performance—well, yeah—that's pretty much how this works. But it's not like Dickey had never been mentioned here before. And frankly, it would be laughable if he wasn't considered the top candidate right now. 

If you believe these pitchers should be ranked in a different order or other players should be in the top five, your suggestions are welcome in the comments. They are definitely helpful. But as of this week, these five pitchers look like the top candidates for the NL Cy Young Award.

Honorable Mentions

Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals

Last week, Lynn was No. 4 in our rankings. Squeezing him out of the top five might not seem fair, considering how well he's pitched. But Wednesday night's performance against the Detroit Tigers was his worst of the season. 

Lynn allowed five runs for the first time, his highest total in 14 starts this year. He also gave up nine hits for the second time. Four strikeouts also tied his second-lowest total in 2012. 

Brandon Beachy, Atlanta Braves

Sadly, this is the last time we'll see Beachy mentioned here. His season is over after tearing a ligament in his right elbow, an injury that will require Tommy John surgery. It's a heartbreaking end to what was developing into a breakthrough season for an exciting young pitcher.

I know several readers thought he should have been ranked higher on this list over the past few weeks, Although I thought his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and xFIP numbers indicated he was getting plenty of help from his defense, his ERA, WHIP and opponents' batting average were each among the top three in the National League. 

James McDonald, Pittsburgh Pirates

Despite allowing just one run and three hits over six innings in his last start, McDonald took a hard-luck loss, as the Pirates were shut out against the Indians.

With a 2.32 ERA, McDonald ranks fifth among NL pitchers. His 0.98 WHIP is the fourth-best figure in the league, as is his .196 opponents' batting average. How will he fare on Thursday against the Minnesota Twins? He should be just the guy to pitch the Bucs to a series win. 

Chris Capuano, Los Angeles Dodgers

Capuano returns to the honorable mentions after a couple of commenters wondered why he wasn't listed among the NL's top pitchers last week. He continues to be one of the surprises of the 2012 season, leading the Dodgers in wins and ERA from the back end of the rotation. His 80 strikeouts rank second on the team behind Clayton Kershaw's 88.  

In his most recent start, Capuano racked up 12 strikeouts in eight innings against the White Sox. He allowed only one run on six hits. While his cumulative numbers this season don't quite put him with the top pitchers in the NL, an 8-2 record and 2.71 ERA are definitely worth noting. 

5. Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals

Last week: No. 5

Gio Gonzalez pitched well enough to win his last start, allowing three runs and five hits against the New York Yankees. He also notched eight strikeouts.

The Nationals' left-hander wasn't happy about being pulled from the game after six innings. It was a curious decision by manager Davey Johnson to take Gonzalez out after allowing a leadoff single to begin the seventh inning. But by that point, he had thrown 109 pitches and Johnson apparently thought he didn't have much left.

Though Gonzalez isn't striking out quite as many batters as he was earlier in the season, his 97 strikeouts going into Thursday's play were the fifth-highest total in the NL. His ratio of 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings is the third-best rate in the majors.

Only Brandon Beachy was allowing fewer hits per nine than Gonzalez's 5.49 (just barely with 5.44). Consequently, his .173 opponents' batting average was just behind Beachy's .171. 

But Gonzalez's 2.52 ERA and 1.02 WHIP still put him among the 10 best pitchers in the NL. 

4. Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds

Several commenters voiced their support for Johnny Cueto when he wasn't listed among the top Cy Young Award contenders last week. After two consecutive starts in which he allowed only one run, we figured it was time to put him back in the top five. 

In his past two starts, Cueto has allowed two runs and 12 hits in 16 innings. He struck out 15 batters while walking only one. Cueto didn't compile those numbers against mediocre competition, either. He shut down both the New York Mets and Cleveland Indians in those two outings.

Cueto's cumulative numbers don't quite stand out among other top pitchers. (That is, unless you look at Baseball-Reference, which has him at 2.8 wins above replacement, second in the NL.) His strikeouts, WHIP and opponents' batting average rank far below those of his fellow NL hurlers. But an 8-3 record and 2.38 ERA cannot be dismissed. That ERA is the seventh-best mark in the league.

Cueto should also get extra credit for pitching in the bandbox that is Great American Ball Park. Having finally seen a game there in person a couple of weeks ago, I'm amazed at any pitcher that can keep the ball from going over the fence in that yard.

3. Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals

Last week: No. 3.

In mid-May, Stephen Strasburg looked as if he might be tiring out a bit. That suspicion seems silly now, with Strasburg having won his past six starts. In five of those appearances, he's allowed two runs or fewer.

During that stretch, Strasburg also struck out more than 10 batters per game. That's boosted his strikeouts per nine innings rate up to 11.79, best in the majors. With 110 strikeouts on the season, he leads all big-league pitchers in that category. 

Pitching against AL East teams in interleague play hasn't fazed Strasburg at all. Facing the Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays in succession, Strasburg allowed a total of six runs in 19 innings with 31 strikeouts. 

His 2.46 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .214 BAA each rank among the 10 best pitchers in the NL. 

Several commenters have pointed out that the Washington Nationals will impose an innings limit on Strasburg, generally believed to be 160 innings. That would effectively kill his chances at winning the Cy Young Award.

But that limit isn't set in stone. What if, as Christina Kahrl asks at ESPN.com's Sweet Spot, the Nats decide to go past that limit if Strasburg looks like he can handle it and the team continues to contend for a playoff spot? If he pitches 180-to-190 innings and does so at an elite level, why can't he win?

2. Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants

Last week: No. 1.

Bumping Matt Cain from the top spot in our rankings after one bad start seems pretty harsh. But, I'm presuming that most of you will agree that circumstances dictate that he move down a notch. At a different point in the season—or maybe in a different season entirely—this wouldn't be the case.

Following his perfect game against the Houston Astros, Cain was less than perfect in his next start. Facing the Los Angeles Angels, Cain was touched up for three runs and six hits in five innings of work, adding four walks and four strikeouts.

That's hardly getting blown out of the building. Cain has given up more runs in three of his starts this season. But five innings was his shortest outing of the year thus far, so the argument could be made that it was the worst of his 14 starts in 2012. 

But Cain's body of work for the season is absolutely worthy of the NL Cy Young Award. Going into Thursday's slate of games, he's one of three pitchers with 100 strikeouts. Cain is also the first NL pitcher to have reached 100 innings, a testament to his endurance and ability to pitch deep into ballgames. 

Cain's 2.34 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and .199 opponents' batting average all rank among the five best in the league. Even if you just want to look at wins (something that has never been an accurate barometer of Cain's ability), his nine victories are tied for the third-highest total among NL pitchers. 

Barring injury or total collapse, he is going to contend for the NL Cy Young Award all season.

1. R.A. Dickey, New York Mets

Last week: No. 2.

Of course, we already gave away the results with this slideshow's headline and the introductory page, but was there really any doubt as to who would lead our NL Cy Young Award rankings this week?

R.A. Dickey is currently the best pitcher in baseball. It's been a long time since we've seen someone dominate the competition the way he has. He's thrown two consecutive one-hit complete games—the first pitcher to do so since Dave Stieb in 1988. He's also the first NL pitcher to accomplish the feat in 68 years.

With those two shutouts, Dickey has pitched 42.2 consecutive innings without allowing an earned run. 

He leads the majors with 11 wins and a 2.00 ERA. His 0.89 WHIP is also tops among fellow big-league starting pitchers. His .194 opponents' batting average is tied for fourth-best in the majors. Only Matt Cain and Clayton Kershaw have pitched more innings than Dickey's total of 99. 

Dickey has 103 strikeouts for the season. That puts him among the Justin Verlanders and Stephen Strasburgs. Would anyone have put Dickey in the same sentence with those two pitchers before this year? This isn't supposed to happen with a knuckleball pitcher. (Unless you're Phil Niekro, perhaps.)

Knuckleballers will get strikeouts by getting batters to flail helplessly at pitches that dart or drop in unpredictable directions. Those floaters will freeze opposing hitters who don't know what to do with what they've seen. But Dickey is mowing hitters down like he's a 98 mph flamethrower with a knuckleball that he can throw at different speeds and locate within the strike zone.

He's amazing to watch; he's must-see TV. A late bloomer finally finding success after a long slog, Dickey is the kind of story most everyone wants to follow.

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