NL MVP Rankings: Shall Joey Votto and Carlos Beltran Let Anyone Pass?

The race for the National League Most Valuable Player award might lack some suspense in that there's not much question who's going to win if Joey Votto keeps cranking out hits like a machine sent from the future to take over baseball.

But the race is most certainly competitive. Even if Votto is the clear front-runner at this point, there are at least six players behind him playing at an elite level. Any of them could overtake Votto at the top if he stumbles. It just doesn't look like he's going to.

Much like the NL Cy Young Award race, however, the competition can't really be contained to five contenders anymore. Including honorable mentions, we'll be listing eight players this week. And maybe the list should be expanded to 10 candidates. The Cardinals' Yadier Molina and Braves' Michael Bourn probably deserve some consideration as well. 

We're trying to shoehorn in as many worthy candidates as we can here. Hopefully, the pot doesn't overflow; with slow heat, it'll all cook down. But until that happens, these players look like the top contenders for the 2012 NL MVP award.

Honorable Mentions

Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers

Keeping Braun out of the top five with the numbers he currently has seems crazy. I fully expect some of you to let me know about it in the comments. And I probably won't disagree with you.

In seven games since last week's rankings, Braun went 11-for-32 (.344) with four home runs and nine RBI. That's a good month for most players. For the season, Braun is hitting .314/.395/.608 with 19 home runs and 49 RBI. 

As I've said before, I think Braun's offseason drug-testing controversy will ultimately prevent him from winning the award. But he's playing well enough to be strongly considered and thus should be.

So why didn't he at least beat out Melky Cabrera for a spot in the top five? Take issue with this if you will, but I didn't think it was fair to squeeze Cabrera out when he had an excellent week of his own. More on that later. 

Carlos Ruiz, Philadelphia Phillies

Unless the Phillies get back into the NL East race, Ruiz probably isn't going to be an MVP contender. But his numbers certainly warrant discussion. 

Ruiz's .358 batting average is the second-best in the NL. His .417 on-base percentage ranks fourth, and his .585 slugging percentage is the fifth-highest among NL hitters. Put it all together and you get a 1.003 OPS, tied for fourth-best in the league. Fangraphs ranks Ruiz as the fifth-best player in the NL with 3.3 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Chooch! 

Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates

The Bucs looked like they'd played their way out of the NL Central race, losing four in a row last week. But with three straight wins, the ship is still afloat in Pittsburgh, and McCutchen's MVP chances may still have some life. 

The Pirates center fielder is having an excellent season, batting .332/.390/.562 with 12 homers, 39 RBI and 14 stolen bases. Those numbers are a notch below the other top hitters in the NL, but if the Pirates end up making their way into the playoffs, how could McCutchen not get some consideration for that?

5. Melky Cabrera, San Francisco Giants

Last week: No. 5.

As I said when discussing Ryan Braun in the previous slide, you can take issue with keeping Melky Cabrera ranked among the top NL MVP contenders. Lined up side-by-side, Braun is the better player, putting up better numbers. 

But since we had Cabrera ranked No. 5 last week, it seemed unfair to squeeze him out of the top five when he hit 12-for-31 with two home runs and six RBI. With that, he was able to keep his lead as the NL's top hitter with a .369 batting average. 

Cabrera has 101 hits going into Wednesday night's play, 11 more than the next closest batter. He ranks fifth in the league with a .405 on-base percentage, and his .945 OPS is among the top 10 in the league. Cabrera is also viewed very favorably by WAR, rating as the sixth-best NL player at 3.1. 

4. Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies

Last week: No. 4.

Even with missing two games due to a sore knee, Carlos Gonzalez still had an impressive week for the Colorado Rockies. Playing only three games since last week's rankings, Gonzalez still hit 7-for-13 (.538) with a home run and three RBI. 

Ask Detroit Tigers fans what they think of Gonzalez's MVP worthiness after he crushed a 10th-inning three-run homer off Luis Marte at Comerica Park last Friday. That bomb also showed that Gonzalez can hit some home runs away from Coors Field.

Gonzalez's 1.023 OPS ranks second in the NL. He's also second among NL hitters with 17 home runs, 51 RBI and a .629 slugging percentage. His .335 batting average and .394 on-base percentage also put him with the top 10 hitters in the league.

If only Gonzalez could pitch. The Rockies could use him as a fifth starter right now. Or maybe he could be included in Jim Tracy's new four-man rotation. He'd only have to throw 75 pitches. 

3. David Wright, New York Mets

Last week: No. 3.

Seven days ago, the New York Mets looked as if they could be sliding out of contention in the NL East. Two losses to the Nationals and a three-game sweep by the Yankees had the Mets wobbling, vulnerable to a knockout blow. 

Since then, however, the Mets have won five of eight games, pushing back to within three games of the NL East lead. David Wright did what he could to keep the Mets offense churning, batting 9-for-26 (.346) over his past seven games with three doubles and four RBI.

The Mets could have used more run production from him when they managed only one run in back-to-back games against the Reds. But that sort of thing doesn't lie entirely at Wright's feet either.

Wright ranks second among NL players with 4.1 Wins Above Replacement at Fangraphs. (Baseball-Reference has him at 3.7, though that also ranks second in the NL.) His .352 batting average, .452 on-base percentage and 1.016 each rank among the top five batters in the league. 

Despite those numbers, it's difficult to imagine Wright making much of a run for NL MVP if the Mets don't stay in playoff contention. But if Ike Davis keeps improving, Lucas Duda remains a power threat and R.A. Dickey continues allowing one hit a game, that might not be a problem. 

2. Carlos Beltran, St. Louis Cardinals

Last week: No. 2.

As was the case last week, Carlos Beltran continues to put up MVP-caliber numbers. But one guy is doing just that much better, so Beltran can't make that last push to the top of our rankings. 

Over his past five games, Beltran went 10-for-22 (.455) with a home run and two RBI. That pushed his batting average above .300 for the first time since May 24, which certainly helps his cause. Only MVP voters could tell you whether it's an unwritten rule that a player has to hit .300 to win the award, but no one has done so since Kevin Mitchell hit .291 in 1989. 

What Beltran might lack in batting average, he makes up for in power. His 19 homers lead the NL, and both his 48 RBI and .588 slugging percentage rank fourth in the league. 

The St. Louis Cardinals are still having difficulty stringing together more than two wins in a row and have fallen to 4.5 games behind the Reds in the NL Central. But Beltran is putting up numbers that likely won't be overlooked, regardless of how the Cards finish the season.

Of course, making the playoffs is pretty important. Just ask Matt Kemp about that. 

1. Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds

Last week: No. 1.

As we've shown, several other players are making a strong case for NL MVP consideration. But if Joey Votto keeps doing what he's doing, that won't matter.

The man has been a hitting machine lately, and when he's not getting base hits, he's drawing walks. Opposing pitchers cannot keep Votto off the bases. 

In seven games since last week's rankings, Votto went 12-for-26 (.462) at the plate with four doubles, six walks, two home runs and four RBI. 

So where does that leave Votto up against his peers? His .369 batting average is tied for the top mark in the majors, while his .490 on-base percentage stands alone, 38 points above the next closest hitter. With 4.8 Wins Above Replacement, Votto has also outdistanced the competition in that category. (It's a little bit closer at Baseball-Reference, with Votto rating 4.3 to Brett Lawrie's 4.1.)

Votto also leads the majors with 54 walks and 30 doubles going into Wednesday night's play. Those doubles also put him at the top of the NL in slugging percentage at .665. 

Meanwhile, the Reds also keep winning. A six-game winning streak put some distance between them and the Pirates for the NL Central lead, while pushing the Cardinals further down the standings.

Between his team's record and his individual numbers, Votto is going to be a tough man to beat in this race from here on out.

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