Breaking Down How Surprising MLB Contenders Can Continue Strong Playoff Push

We are more than one-third of the way through the Major League Baseball season, and while some of the usual suspects are holding their own, a lot of surprises have emerged in the still-very-early playoff race. 

Since the baseball season is a marathon and not a sprint, the wheat ends up getting separated from the chaff by the time September rolls around. From time to time strange things will happen — it's the nature of sports. 

If we want to take the surprise contenders seriously, there are certain things they will have to do during the final 90-95 games. 

Here is a look at MLB's surprising contenders right now, as well as a breakdown of their strengths, weaknesses and what must happen for them to get in the playoffs. 

Baltimore Orioles (39-29, 2.5 GB in American League East)

Runs Scored: 299 (Sixth in AL)

Runs Allowed: 294 (Seventh in AL)

Playoff Odds (Courtesy of ESPN.com): 34.6 percent

Strengths: Bullpen, Power, Up-The-Middle Defense

The Orioles have the best bullpen ERA (2.37) in all of baseball. They don't have a lot of power arms to bring in that will miss a lot of bats, but they are getting the job done right now. 

Their lineup is problematic because there is no depth, nor do they have a lot of players who are going to work a count. But the one thing they do well is hit home runs. They are currently third in baseball with 89 home runs.

Another strength for this team has been the defense up the middle. Matt Wieters is one of the best defensive catchers in baseball. Adam Jones always had good potential as a defensive player, and he is living up to that billing, with an Ultimate Zone Rating of 3.6 so far, according to Fangraphs.

Shortstop J.J. Hardy has saved 10 runs defensively this year, according to Fangraphs. He doesn't add much with the bat, but the first job of a shortstop is to make plays with the glove.

Weaknesses: Starting Rotation, Lack of Patience and Depth in Lineup

The emergence of Jason Hammel at the top of the rotation has been a saving grace for the Orioles. His stuff looks much sharper compared to what it was in Colorado. His fastball velocity has increased, leading to a spike in strikeouts. 

After Hammel, there are a lot of question marks. Wei-Yin Chen has held his own with a 3.36 ERA in 80.2 innings so far, but he is doing it with average stuff in the American League East. He doesn't walk a lot of hitters, so that helps him keep the damage to a minimum. But Chen is an extreme flyball pitcher (60.5 percent), so eventually those balls are going to start going over the fence. 

Jake Arrieta, Brian Matusz and Tommy Hunter are disasters right now. Arrieta has run into some bad luck, as his strikeout and walk totals are very good. Matusz still can't find the strike zone consistently. Hunter does not keep the ball in the ballpark enough to last in the American League East. 

Meanwhile, the offense is so reliant on the home run, Matt Wieters and Adam Jones that it is hard to see them scoring enough to make up for their lack of depth in the rotation. Aside from Wieters, no one in the lineup has plate discipline. Even Jones only walks 5.5 percent of the time. 

Chris Davis swings and misses too much to hit .288 all year. In 69 plate appearances, Nolan Reimold has two more walks than I do this season. Unless they are hitting home runs, no one is getting on base. 

What Must Happen To Stay In The Race

They need their overachieving players, like Chen and Chris Davis, to keep playing over their head. The bullpen is going to have to keep bailing out the starting rotation, which puts them under a lot more pressure. 

Adam Jones has to keep playing at an MVP level, and Matt Wieters has to increase his offensive game. They are so dependent on two players in the lineup right now that it is hard to see this run continuing. 

Projecting The Rest of 2012: 36-58 (75-87 overall)

I am sure that Orioles fans would be happy just to see this team finish at or around .500. They have hung around a lot longer than I, or anyone else, expected them to. Unfortunately it's not going to last. 

They end the first half of the season with nine of 16 games against Washington and the Angels. July and August will be the downfall for this team, with two series against Tampa Bay, plus a series in New York and then a back-to-back-to-back-to-back run against Boston, Detroit, Texas and Toronto at the end of August. 

Cleveland Indians (35-32, Lead American League Central by .5 Game)

Runs Scored: 292 (Eighth in American League)

Runs Allowed: 330 (13th in American League)

Playoff Odds (Courtesy of ESPN.com): 17.5 percent

Strengths: Plate Discipline, Back End of Bullpen

Despite their record, the Indians are quite volatile. They don't do much on offense, defense or pitching, yet they have found a way to get to a 35-32 start. 

One big advantage they have over a team like the Orioles is their ability to work counts and draw walks. Moving Shin-Soo Choo to the top of the batting order was the best move manager Manny Acta has made this season. 

They currently rank fourth in all of baseball in walk percentage, and have three players with an on-base percentage of at least .350 (Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Carlos Santana). Since they don't hit for a high average as a team, or have a lot of power, their ability to get on base helps them create runs. 

Overall, the bullpen has been inconsistent. But the performance of Vinnie Pestano and Chris Perez has allowed Acta to pick his spots with everyone else. They do need at least one more reliever to step up and take some pressure off those two, since they can't pitch everyday. 

Weaknesses: Starting Rotation, Bullpen, Power, Defense

Looking at the weaknesses with the Indians, you have to wonder how they have even made it to this point with a winning record. Their starting rotation is not good. Justin Masterson is getting destroyed by left-handed hitters, which has always been a problem for him. Ubaldo Jimenez doesn't know where the ball is going when he lets it go. Derek Lowe and Josh Tomlin have fringe-average stuff, at best, and both have been getting crushed. 

Aside from Pestano and Perez in the bullpen, no one has been reliable. Nick Hagadone has the best stuff of anyone in the 'pen, yet he leaves the ball up in the zone too much when he does throw strikes and hitters jump all over it. 

The offense has learned to work counts to get on base, though they don't have enough power to create runs. Carlos Santana has to be the lynchpin for this team in the middle of the lineup, so his .233 average is unacceptable. 

They are a well below-average defensive team, with a current Ultimate Zone Rating of -21.3, according to Fangraphs.

What Must Happen To Stay In The Race

Honestly, hope to get by with a lot more smoke and mirrors. They don't hit well, pitch well or field well. Yet here they are in first place? Welcome to the American League Central in 2012. Since there is not a lot of depth in the division, perhaps they can hang around. I just wouldn't put a lot of money on it. 

(I didn't mention Grady Sizemore because we don't know when he is coming back, and even if he does, who knows how long it will be before he breaks down again.)

Projecting the Rest of 2012: 40-55 (75-87 Overall)

This is going to be a mirror image of last season, when the Indians started hot and collapsed down the stretch. Unless the bullpen figures out its issues, the offense can start hitting more consistently, and the rotation can find two bright spots, it is going to be a long summer in Cleveland. 

New York Mets (37-32, 3 GB In National League East)

Runs Scored: 306 (Third in National League)

Runs Allowed: 304 (11th in National League)

Playoff Odds (Courtesy of ESPN.com): 39.7 percent

Strengths: Top of the Rotation, David Wright

There has not been a better story so far this season than R.A. Dickey. He has had one of the great runs from a knuckleballer in history, including back-to-back one-hitters. It truly is remarkable to see the level of dominance he has put up using a pitch that is impossible to command. 

Plus, despite his recent struggles, Johan Santana looks like he is back to his old tricks. His fastball isn't as good as it used to be, but because his changeup is so great, he can get away with less velocity. 

Jonathan Niese has been tremendous as the No. 3 starter, posting a 3.82 ERA and striking out 74 in 75.1 innings this season. The Mets need those three to stay healthy and produce like they have been in order to hang in this race. 

David Wright keeps proving all the critics wrong. I didn't have high hopes for him coming into the season, yet here he is hitting .352/.452/.564 through 65 games. He isn't hitting home runs like he used to, but he still has 32 extra-base hits right now in spacious Citi Field. 

Weaknesses: Bullpen, Lineup, Defense

The Mets need Dickey, Santana and Niese to pitch well each time out because the bullpen is the worst in the baseball. Collectively they have an ERA of 5.32, nearly three-quarters of a run higher than Milwaukee's 4.60. 

As great as Wright has been, the rest of the lineup features a lot of players who are playing over their head (Lucas Duda, Scott Hairston, Mike Baxter) or just aren't very good (everyone else). Ike Davis has been a mess. He did have valley fever in spring training, and that had to take a toll on him physically. Jason Bay can't stay healthy, and when he is playing, he isn't producing. 

We talked about the Indians' defense before, but the Mets are actually worse than they are, with an Ultimate Zone Rating of -27.5 and -22 Defensive Runs Saved, according to Fangraphs.

What Must Happen to Stay In Race

Dickey and Santana have to pitch like superstars, with Niese not far behind. They need at least 350 great innings from that trio the rest of the season. 

Offensively, Hairston and Duda have to maintain their current level of performance to give the Mets someone else they can count on besides Wright. 

The bullpen can't maintain an ERA over 5.00 all season if they want to stay in the National League East race. 

Projecting the Rest of 2012: 44-49 (81-81 Overall)

I give the Mets a chance to finish .500, which is an accomplishment given where this team was supposed to be coming into the year, because of Dickey and Santana. I don't trust the lineup to produce enough the rest of the season, and the bullpen has shown no signs of coming out of their funk. 

Average might not be good enough for New York, yet if the Mets finish .500 they should be celebrating in Queens. 

Pittsburgh Pirates (35-31, 2.5 GB In National League Central)

Runs Scored: 229 (T-Last In National League)

Runs Allowed: 246 (Third In National League)

Playoff Odds (Courtesy of ESPN.com): 33.1 percent

Strengths: Andrew McCutchen, Power Arms

The reason the Pirates can say they are tied with San Diego for fewest runs scored in the National League is because of how great Andrew McCutchen has been. He is the only offensive player they have right now. His on-base percentage of .390 is 61 points higher than the No. 2 player on the team (Casey McGeehee).

He leads this team in every statistical category on offense right now. (For those of you who believe in lineup protection, I present McCutchen as proof positive it doesn't exist.) He is a superstar surrounded by a lot of spare parts. 

The good news is the pitching staff has done quite well for itself. A.J. Burnett has been a strong addition to this group, with 58 strikeouts and a 3.52 ERA in 69 innings pitched. James McDonald has been the anchor of everything, thanks to a 2.32 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 78 strikeouts in 81 innings. Erik Bedard has been healthy and is striking out 8.45 per nine innings pitched. 

They have great power arms that can miss bats, both in the rotation and out of the bullpen. Jason Grilli, Joel Hanrahan and Juan Cruz are all striking out more than a batter per inning. 

Weaknesses: Offensive Production, Unstable Rotation

If you take McCutchen out of the lineup, it is scary to think of what this offense would look like. Pedro Alvarez was thought to be the big bat in the middle of the lineup, yet he has never hit left-handed pitching or had a good approach at the plate. 

As much as I like what the rotation has done to this point, Erik Bedard is one pitch from breaking down, and A.J. Burnett is one bad start from melting down. Even James McDonald has never shown signs of being this good. Granted, he is just 28, so perhaps he has figured something out that wasn't there with the Dodgers. 

What Must Happen to Stay In Race

The only reason for optimism with the Pirates is their schedule. They still have 23 games left against the Cubs and Astros. Those two teams can make anyone look good, even the Pirates. 

A.J. Burnett, James McDonald, Kevin Correia and Erik Bedard have to stay healthy and eat innings. The bullpen, which I am more optimistic about, has to keep dominating. 

McCutchen has to keep playing out of his mind on offense to keep them clinging to life support. He needs help, though I don't see a lot coming through the system or in a trade this year. 

Projecting the Rest of 2012: 35-61 (70-92 Overall)

Pittsburgh would be more than happy to see the team finish .500 for the first time since 1992. Unfortunately it's not in the cards right now. They don't have the offense to play at their current pace the rest of the season. 

The future is bright in Pittsburgh, but it is going to take a couple more years before the results start to show at the big-league level. 

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