Fantasy Football 2012: The 4 Best Options for the 4th Pick Overall

In most fantasy drafts this year, running backs Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy and Ray Rice will be the first three players off the board. This makes the No. 4 pick a slot of intrigue. Taking another RB may not be the best option for owners after a fantasy season with dominating performances by select QBs, WRs and TEs. Here’s four options for the fourth pick overall, and why they should (and shouldn’t) be selected.

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB

Why You Should Select Him

Jones-Drew, the league’s leading rusher in 2011, is a safe pick at No. 4 when it comes to production. He has had double-digit TDs five of his six NFL seasons, and he’s rushed for over 1,300 yards each of the past three. Jones-Drew was the No. 3 scoring back in 2011, matching his best fantasy finish  (also No. 3 in 2009).

Why You Shouldn’t Select Him

There’s some concern with MJD as he is holding out of minicamp and hoping to renegotiate his contract. This has the potential to drag on, and of course, a fantasy owner is at a huge disadvantage if their first-round pick isn’t on the field.

Jones-Drew also had a league-high 343 carries in 2011, and there is a question as to whether or not he can continue to handle that load, especially with defenses loading up the box with lack of concern regarding the Jags’ aerial attack.  

Chris Johnson, RB

Why You Should Select Him

In the recent B/R football writers’ mock draft, Johnson was the pick at No. 4. There is a lot of uncertainty at the RB position, and Johnson has question marks just like everyone else after the big three. But Johnson has the distinction of being a No. 1 overall fantasy scorer (2009), and has the potential to be an elite back once again. If you can have even one elite back in 2012, your fantasy team will have a steady foundation that most other teams will lack.

As far as I know, no one is predicting another 2,000-yard season for Johnson like he had in 2009, but if he can get back to even his 2010 form (1,364 yards, 12 total TDs), he’ll be worth the selection. And over the last six games of 2011, he showed signs of getting back to form while averaging 5.3 YPC.

Why You Shouldn’t Select Him

This is probably the riskiest choice of those presented here. While Johnson does have the potential to give elite RB production, so does Darren McFadden, and Run-DMC wasn’t picked until Round 3 in the writers' draft.

There is a reason that Johnson isn’t included in the top tier of RBs, and that’s because he has experienced a dramatic statistical drop-off since his elite season of 2009. While he did break 1,000 yards last season because of a late-season push, he was terribly inconsistent. He had eight games of seven or less fantasy points, and just two games of 20-plus points.

Aaron Rodgers, QB

Why You Should Select Him

Rodgers was the leader in fantasy points per game last year (26.5 per in ESPN standard scoring) and is a solid bet to repeat. In 2010, he was the No. 3 per week scorer behind Michael Vick and Arian Foster. The Packers did nothing to revamp their rushing attack in 2012 either, meaning there will continue to be plenty of opportunities for Rodgers to deliver in a pass-happy attack. Rodgers was extremely consistent for fantasy owners last season as well, delivering three-plus passing TDs in 10 of 15 starts.

Why You Shouldn’t Select Him

There is a lot of depth at QB this year for fantasy, and a number of players who have been top-five fantasy QBs in the past will be available in the second half of your league’s draft. Philip Rivers (No. 5 in 2010, No. 3 in ‘08), Peyton Manning (perennial top five) and Jay Cutler (No. 4 in ’08) are all capable of big seasons at a discounted draft position. 

Calvin Johnson, WR

Why You Should Select Him

Megatron has youth (26), durability and a great young QB in Matthew Stafford on his side; what more could you ask for?

Johnson is coming off a dominating performance in 2011 as the No. 1 fantasy wideout where he outpaced the competition by 44 points in standard scoring and provided three extra points per game over the next best receiver, Jordy Nelson. 

Johnson's season was not a statistical anomaly either, as he had two previous seasons with 12 receiving TDs before notching 16 last year. 2011 was also the first season that Stafford avoided major injury and started every game. Things look promising for the duo in 2012.

Why You Shouldn’t Select Him

While Megatron is a good bet to suit up for 15 or 16 games in 2012, he did play through some injuries that limited his productivity (he averaged just 6.6 fantasy points Weeks 10-14). He also skipped the Pro Bowl in order to rest his Achilles.

But it’s almost even more impressive that he finished as the No. 1 receiver despite those nagging injuries, as he averaged 20.1 fantasy points in the other 11 weeks. That per game average would have been better than any RB in 2011, and makes Megatron the best fantasy advantage available with the fourth pick.